Nicholls v Mullins

We have heard that more than a few times DG but you have to understand WPM nor PN were given the horses they ended up with.

The successful trainer is the guy who ends up with a Douvan, a Kauto or a Sprinter Sacre through years of hard work and being smart enough to be successful in business

Sure if I take Douvan and send him to Nicky Richards, Nicky would get the same results but his old man would have found a Douvan by himself and that's the difference
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Lets face it, about 90% of trainers could win races if they had horses like that
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Not a hope in hell, look at the quality of races we are talking about and the ability to have that number of horses to peak at just the right time is not a gift that even 25% of trainers possess.

Would you not think that his training might also have a little to do with their excellence on the course, a lot of the French purchases were nothing to write home about and also his training, handling and strike rate with mares is phenomenal.

He has incredibly talented horses for a reason, Rich Ricci and Graham Wylie are no fools and could have picked any stable they wanted.
 
Graham wylie. (Who is a really nice bloke). Picked Howard Johnson. Ricci may be no fool but all horses with one trainer doesn't strike me as being ultra smart
 
Tanlic said:
True but that's down to him competing only at highest level not picking up races with 1/2 shots round Sedgy

His strike rate in Ireland is 29.59% and he should surely be judged on that
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no. Because we are talking the uk championship. Also if we were judging that way then same odds on argument would apply

im not knocking him (befire the paranoid flag wavers start twitching) but if anyone was asked who had lowest strike rate of the top 6 trainers in th uk I bet few woukd have guessed.

As ive said before, seeing more interaction across the sea outside of the very biggest festivals is a great boost

Councidentally simon holt mentions this championship issue in the weekender. He has a solution of sorts. Not sure I agree though

no method is perfect but I would go for numbers
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
Not a hope in hell, look at the quality of races we are talking about and the ability to have that number of horses to peak at just the right time is not a gift that even 25% of trainers possess.

Would you not think that his training might also have a little to do with their excellence on the course, a lot of the French purchases were nothing to write home about and also his training, handling and strike rate with mares is phenomenal.

He has incredibly talented horses for a reason, Rich Ricci and Graham Wylie are no fools and could have picked any stable they wanted.
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I was replying to Tanlic re the three horses he mentioned, namely Douvan, Sprinter Sacre and Kauto Star.
 
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You'd have to think that Wylie has had a far better experience with Mullins than with Nicholls. That's not to say that everyone would because, as I said earlier, they have a similar philosophy so it can be down to personalities. With the good horses you set the target and work back with prep races. With the others you just look to win whatever races you can. Anyone can get a horse fit, the art of training is to get the right horse in the right race.
 
archie said:
You'd have to think that Wylie has had a far better experience with Mullins than with Nicholls. That's not to say that everyone would because, as I said earlier, they have a similar philosophy so it can be down to personalities. With the good horses you set the target and work back with prep races. With the others you just look to win whatever races you can. Anyone can get a horse fit, the art of training is to get the right horse in the right race.
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I suspect that Ruby has a lot to do with where the Wylie horses are . Nicholls did an extraordinary job for example with sweetening up Tidal bay .
 
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Ardross said:
I suspect that Ruby has a lot to do with where the Wylie horses are . Nicholls did an extraordinary job for example with sweetening up Tidal bay .
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One of the best, if not the best, training performances of recent times.
 
PN may have just made a good move to try and help him retain the title

WPN could take it if UDS wins the the Celebration Chase but if he finishes 2nd the 28k prize might not be enough as PN has 3 in the race.

With 6 runners and 6 prizes the best if UDS is 2nd WPM can net is 18,375.00 and that is only if Sire De Grugy finishes 3rd.

If SDG fails to show, finish or if he were to finish last WPM would gain only 6,675.00 on PN.
 
On that strike rate clive...would that not be diluted because he runs so many horses in the same races come cheltenham time. how many races at chelt does he have multiple runners in? 5/6 in the bumper and the albert bartlett...3/4 in the other novice hurdles.....surely have to factor that into strike rate when i would presume his number of runners is very small compared to the others based in the UK.

not flagwaving but you're picking a fault there by a line of attack that can be picked apart fairly easily.

clivex said:
no. Because we are talking the uk championship. Also if we were judging that way then same odds on argument would apply

im not knocking him (befire the paranoid flag wavers start twitching) but if anyone was asked who had lowest strike rate of the top 6 trainers in th uk I bet few woukd have guessed.

As ive said before, seeing more interaction across the sea outside of the very biggest festivals is a great boost

Councidentally simon holt mentions this championship issue in the weekender. He has a solution of sorts. Not sure I agree though

no method is perfect but I would go for numbers
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I knew that :lol:

At Cheltenham he contested 21 races winning 7 of them 33.33% SR , He had 10 horses placed 2nd or 3rd.

One unlucky loser who fell at the last and only 6 of the races he contested did his horse/s finish unplaced.

That actually brought home bacon in 17 of the 21 races he contested........That is awesome and only one trainer has trained more winner at a festival...That would be himself when he had 8 winners last year

Nicky Henderson also trained 7 winners in 2012

Paul Nicholls next best managed 5 winner in 2009

However WPM has along way to go to catch Nicky Henderson who now has 55 winners to his name


Mildmay of Flete The Tsarevich
Triumph First Bout
Champion Hurdle See You Then
Mildmay of Flete The Tsarevich
Supreme Novices River Ceiriog
Champion Hurdle See You Then
Triumph Alone Success
Champion Hurdle See You Then
World Hurdle Rustle
Kim Muir Master Bob
Cathcart Brown Windsor
Arkle Remittance Man
Supreme Novices Flown
Champion Chase Remittance Man
Arkle Travado
County Thumbs Up
Cathcart Raymylette
County Barna Boy
Triumph Katarino
Cathcart Stormyfairweather
World Hurdle Bacchanal
Festival Trophy Marlborough
Cathcart Stormyfairweather
Arkle Tiutchev
Kim Muir The Bushkeeper
RSA Chase Trabolgan
Mildmay of Flete Liberthine
Kim Muir Juveigneur
Grand Annual Greenhope
Ryanair Fondmort
Mildmay of Flete Non So
Champion Hurdle Punjabi
Triumph Zaynar
Martin Pipe Andytown
Triumph Soldatino
Coral Cup Spirit River
Champion Hurdle Binocular
Albert Bartlett Bobs Worth
Gold Cup Long Run
Arkle Sprinter Sacre
Neptune IM Simonsig
RSA Chase Bobs Worth
Champion Chase Finian's Rainbow
Ryanair Riverside Theatre
Fred Winter Une Artiste
Grand Annual Bellvano
*Arkle Simonsig
*Centenary Rajdhani Express
*Champion Chase Sprinter Sacre
*Gold Cup Bobs Worth
*Coral Cup Whisper
Petempts Call The Cops
Triumph Hurdle Peace and Co
Supreme Novices Altior
*Champion Chase Sprinter Sacre
 
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Jambo said:
On that strike rate clive...would that not be diluted because he runs so many horses in the same races come cheltenham time. how many races at chelt does he have multiple runners in? 5/6 in the bumper and the albert bartlett...3/4 in the other novice hurdles.....surely have to factor that into strike rate when i would presume his number of runners is very small compared to the others based in the UK.

not flagwaving but you're picking a fault there by a line of attack that can be picked apart fairly easily.
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line of attack? I'm merely pointing out that he could have been champion trainer with the least winners and lowest strike rate of the top six. I'm not lobbing bricks through his window.

i did think that about the entries but it doesn't stand up. There are a number of reasons of which some are statistical but most significant is the fact that he doesn't do mob handed in chases as you stated

his strike rate over 50 runners in chases is exactly the same 16% .

As as I said before, if you asked the question. Of who had the lowest strike rate in uk of those trainers I bet few would have guessed
 
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so the fact that Mullins hadn't trained a GB handicap chase winner since Hedgehunter comes to an end...

Quite incredible really but Mullins announces he's sending horses to Perth's festival in his bid to win the GB trainers title, attends himself and is selective with the number of runners so the outcome is;

Wednesday - Targets one race with two runners
1st & 2nd @ 5/1 & 2/1

Thursday - Targets 2 races
1st @ 1/2
2nd @ 7/2

Friday - Targets 1 race
1st @ 2/1

£5.50 LSP to a £1 stake which in hindsight was bloody inevitable and yet I didn't have a sniff of it :confused:
 
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but most of his horses are running in big saturday races clive...to have a strike rate that is not a million miles behind the big guns who have the ammunition to mop up a lot of ordinary midweek races...its not a bad achievement

line of attack a strong term but its sort of chipping away at his record to point out hes not all that

the above perth stat shows what he could do if he was targeting the normal midweek meetings
 
archie said:
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/boulard-is-the-french-connection/

I don't think any of Vautour, Douvan or Djakadam were particularly expensive by today's standards.
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Two of the lads sharing our Cheltenham lodgings spoke to Harold Kirk last year at Festival.
The horse that broke a leg at Fairyhouse, Dec 14 in Novice Hurdle cost 350K and was by far their most expensive purchase at that stage.
Most of the Ricci horses had been bought for less than 100k averaging 65 to 70k.
Vautour in JLT was Grade 1 win number 96 for Kirk purchased horses.
They spoke from 12.30 am to 04.30;( pressure was off Kirk at that stage) I had long gone to bed.
 
wilsonl said:
so the fact that Mullins hadn't trained a GB handicap chase winner since Hedgehunter comes to an end...

Quite incredible really but Mullins announces he's sending horses to Perth's festival in his bid to win the GB trainers title, attends himself and is selective with the number of runners so the outcome is;

Wednesday - Targets one race with two runners
1st & 2nd @ 5/1 & 2/1

Thursday - Targets 2 races
1st @ 1/2
2nd @ 7/2

Friday - Targets 1 race
1st @ 2/1

£5.50 LSP to a £1 stake which in hindsight was bloody inevitable and yet I didn't have a sniff of it :confused:
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Fair play to PN. he's contested almost every race he had entries in this week

Mullins on the other hand contested only half the races he had entries in for reasons better known to himself and fell 15k below what i expected

PN doesn't need to win a race tomorrow. He realises that place money is as good as win money and it all counts at the end of the day.

If WPM wins the first tomorrow finish 2nd to SS and win with Vroom Vroom Mag I think he'll win the title but if he loses the first then he'll have to....you know what... to win the title and that is not allowed to be put in print in this household :D
 
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I'd say Willie's hand today is much stronger than Nicholls. It'll go to the wire and could come down to the handicap hurdle. Nicky Henderson ironically could have a big hand to play in who wins.
 
Yes but PN has made sure he has packed the right races with runners so if WPM wins one he won't claw back much.

People complain because he could win the title with very few wins in comparison but the thing that's most likely to stop him is PN's horses being placed
 
I agree Tanlic. The big chase would probably clinch it either way, and I'm finding it hard to split Southfield Theatre and Measureofmydreams. On the other hand I could see Willie having a four or five timer that would negate that. I still see the calculators coming out for the last though.

What a great end of season script.
 
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I fnd it easy to split them. The Mullins horse is in as an afterthought. Southfields has been laid out all season. Also I'm very wary of two races in quick succession.

that said, Southfields jumping bothers me. No room for a mistake here of course
 
The NH Chase form is looking better by the race Clive. He may not show it today but I think his current mark underrated him by upwards of 10lbs.

i backed Southfield Theatre when the the entries came out and don't disagree. I can't split them so added Measureofmydreams last night.
 
Maruco said:
I agree Tanlic. The big chase would probably clinch it either way, and I'm finding it hard to split Southfield Theatre and Measureofmydreams. On the other hand I could see Willie having a four or five timer that would negate that. I still see the calculators coming out for the last though.

What a great end of season script.
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It's certainly added spice to the day and got me doing every race!

1: VDR good enough to win but not my price in the circumstances. Don't fancy Nicholls's too much.

2: VL again should win but I've taken Wonderful Charm in the market without the fav.

3: Neither should beat the champ.

4: Mullins has two good arrows here but I prefer NIcholls's.

5: I think VVM is very opposable and have done so with Silsol (Nicholls)

6: Nicholls for me again with Calipto, Volnay DT the danger.

7: Very marginal preference for Nicholls's Red H over Mullins's Bellow M.

Looks like the big race might decide it. If neither wins that it should be very close.
 
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