Northumberland Plate

M

Marb

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Mar 8, 2016
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I hope this race is worth a thread. I'm going on the day.

I've had a look at the main race; Godolphin's Natural Scenery is appealing.
The boys in blue are winning plenty of handicaps.

This won twice at Newcastle already, once over C&D.
On an upward curve, even though it didn't get a clear run at Lingfield last time, but still ran well.

Quality-wise I reckon he's a 110+ horse, on a mark of 103.

Unsurprisingly, Laddies and Hills box smart. They're ducking him at 12/1, although most firms are 16/1, (quarter the odds, 1,2,3,4).
Anti-post rules apply!

I might have to back him anti-post. I don't see the price of 16/1 lasing until Saturday, were he to run.
 
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Flymetothestars appeals to me i saw the horse race at Newcastle on 19th May over 2 miles and i was impressed by its 2 lengths win. Previous race was also a win over this course.

Like yourself Marble i will be going to Newcastle on Saturday.
 
Good chance your one as well. Couldn't put you off yours.

If you've got time for a pint and can meet up Smokey feel free to Private Message me.
 
I took 12/1 Natural Scenery this morning because:

a) it's a Godolphin in a handicap and, as Marble says, they excelled in the handicaps last week;
b ) it's a much more valuable handicap than anything last week so presumably they feel this one is even better handicapped than the likes of Atty Persse;
c) Paul Kealy headlines it in the Weekender so it will go close to halving in price by the off. It's also tipped inside.

I couldn't recall the name of the one Marble put up in the opening post so congratulations on a good early spot, Marble.

I haven't studied the form for the race yet so I'm backing this one blind purely on the above reasoning. If I come across anything else of interest I'll mention it on Saturday.

I'd also suggest you follow whatever Godolphin run in the Magnet Cup and, later on, in the Ebor.
 
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Now 10/1 best across the board except with Betway (12/1) but their prices, from experience, tend to be well out of date.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 12/1 Natural Scenery this morning because:

a) it's a Godolphin in a handicap and, as Marble says, they excelled in the handicaps last week;
b ) it's a much more valuable handicap than anything last week so presumably they feel this one is even better handicapped than the likes of Atty Persse;
c) Paul Kealy headlines it in the Weekender so it will go close to halving in price by the off. It's also tipped inside.

I couldn't recall the name of the one Marble put up in the opening post so congratulations on a good early spot, Marble.

I haven't studied the form for the race yet so I'm backing this one blind purely on the above reasoning. If I come across anything else of interest I'll mention it on Saturday.

I'd also suggest you follow whatever Godolphin run in the Magnet Cup and, later on, in the Ebor.
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RE point B;

Atty Persse is a 3yo, with the 14lb weight for age, any older horse rated 91 would get in ahead of a 105 3yo. He was rated 93 when the weights came out, meaning he would have been below any horse rated 80+ (4yo+). He was never getting in this race, which is why he wasn't aimed at it. Now rated 103, I suspect there is every chance he will go for a Leger trial once weights are out for the Ebor.
 
My strongest fancies, (not including Plate).

3:00 Tetradrachm has hinted at being talented. He's worth backing each way, on a low mark, with first time headgear.

4:05 I'm very keen on Airton e/w. I have a strong feeling this will bounce back to form.
 
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Haha getting cold feet? Natural Scenery wins...end of discussion. :)
 
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Marble said:
Haha getting cold feet are we? Natural Scenery wins...end of discussion. :)
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Not really, I think Seymour has been trained for the race, and he probably would have won it last season (or was it the year before) when he kicked for home about 2f out and went clear. I think he has the class that a number of these don't have.

I like Natural Scenery as a horse and feel he has progressed well to a point, but I'm not sure he has it in him to progress further into a group horse, which he will need to be to win this.

But it's a matter of opinion.
 
Flame said:
Not really, I think Seymour has been trained for the race, and he probably would have won it last season (or was it the year before) when he kicked for home about 2f out and went clear. I think he has the class that a number of these don't have.

I like Natural Scenery as a horse and feel he has progressed well to a point, but I'm not sure he has it in him to progress further into a group horse, which he will need to be to win this.

But it's a matter of opinion.
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I think Seamour is one of those horses that will consistently defy logic, but having been beaten off 93 two years ago and 99 last year - surely off 103 you'd think there would be something better handicapped to foil another bold effort.

But I await being proven wrong on that come Saturday!
 
simmo said:
I think Seamour is one of those horses that will consistently defy logic, but having been beaten off 93 two years ago and 99 last year - surely off 103 you'd think there would be something better handicapped to foil another bold effort.

But I await being proven wrong on that come Saturday!
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fair points
i find though some horses can run to a better level in handicaps regardless of what weight they carry yet can't even make the transition to listed or group 3. Usually I find it's down to how a race is run, and I think a big field handicap suits the Ellison horse.

How much does the mark matter in these handicaps nowadays as well, given that a field will usually be covered by 8-10lb. Long gone are the days of 7st 12lb vs 10st in premier handicaps.
 
Mark Johnstone's is a stable I struggle to get a handle on but the weeks following Royal Ascot are always a time to look twice at his runners, Jaameh has obvious claims in for the hat trick as does Yorkidding who runs for the 5 th time in the space of month and the 5th time over 2 miles this season, 2nd in the Chester Cup, 3rd at Ripon 1st at Haydock and 6th at Royal Ascot.
 
Flame said:
I like Natural Scenery as a horse and feel he has progressed well to a point, but I'm not sure he has it in him to progress further into a group horse, which he will need to be to win this.

But it's a matter of opinion.
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Trainer clearly thinks so, as she holds just 2 future entries - both gp1's.
 
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reet hard said:
Trainer clearly thinks so, as she holds just 2 future entries - both gp1's.
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Possibly or it could be looked at that they are normally races that sometimes get fields of 6/8 runners and Group 1 black type for a mare would be huge if say 5 ran and she nicked 3rd.

I'm not saying she won't win today, I just don't see how she can especially on the back of her Lingfield effort. If she reverts to her going handy or front running I can only see her doing too much to soon. I hope for your sake I'm wrong and she wins.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't studied the form for the race yet so I'm backing this one blind purely on the above reasoning. If I come across anything else of interest I'll mention it on Saturday.
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Jaameh and Flymetothestars are the other steep-curve horses in the race. I've left the latter alone and taken a saver on the former (11/1).
 
Sooner or later, trainers will realise how good Tom Queally actually is and he will get more big race rides. Another brilliant ride and nice to see James Fanshawe have the 1st, 4th and I think 6th from his 3 runners, such a good trainer.

Well done those with Natural Scenery each way, she ran well and just failed, but you still made money.

Seamour found zero.
 
Not a bad run from Natural Scenery. Seemed not to quicken the way Josephine Gordon expected before staying on again right at the death.

I'll be leaving the Newcastle AW alone in future.
 
Marble said:
My strongest fancies, (not including Plate).

4:05 I'm very keen on Airton e/w. I have a strong feeling this will bounce back to form.
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Was pleased to see Josephine Gordon boot this one home! I was on Koropick aswell who she got up near the line. So had a good day.
 
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Marble said:
Was pleased to see Josephine Gordon boot this one home! I was on Koropick aswell who she got up near the line. So had a good day.
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Excellent punting today marb, It's always that bit sweeter with a few winners when your on track.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not a bad run from Natural Scenery. Seemed not to quicken the way Josephine Gordon expected before staying on again right at the death.

I'll be leaving the Newcastle AW alone in future.
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Sectionals aren't up yet, but I'd suspect she was actually wilting in the closing stages.
 
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