Novice Chasers 2018/2019

I’m still wondering what race Hardline goes for? Got ante post bets on him for the Arkle and JLT but he’s been tipped for the Brown Advisory by an Irish tipster (forgotten his name) on the Racing Post WTW video for Cheltenham week. Seriously frustrating if Elliott takes him handicapping now.
 
hezz said:
Any word from the stable seems to suggest he goes for the Arkle.
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With Le Richebourg out it makes sense, especially if the ground is soft on the day too I’d be more confident. I want to get stuck into WH 12/1 for the race but without confirmation of his target I’ll have to let it go. Thanks for your reply.
 
nickf88 said:
With Le Richebourg out it makes sense, especially if the ground is soft on the day too I’d be more confident. I want to get stuck into WH 12/1 for the race but without confirmation of his target I’ll have to let it go. Thanks for your reply.
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12/1 NRNB with Bet365, but I appreciate you might not have an account with them.

I'll be amazed if they don't go Arkle with him personally. I was down in the yard 2 weeks ago and the feeling was he'd go to the Arkle. But you just never know. Not worth backing without the NRNB insurance this close to the festival. You'd be sick as a pig if they pointed him somewhere else.
 
hezz said:
12/1 NRNB with Bet365, but I appreciate you might not have an account with them.

I'll be amazed if they don't go Arkle with him personally. I was down in the yard 2 weeks ago and the feeling was he'd go to the Arkle. But you just never know. Not worth backing without the NRNB insurance this close to the festival. You'd be sick as a pig if they pointed him somewhere else.
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No account with them sadly but you’re spot on with it being so close now I just can’t take the risk. I’ve actually invested more on him winning the JLT but that was immediately after his run behind La Bague Au Roi. Stepping back to 2 miles I didn’t see happening.
 
I hope he goes for the arkle 25/1 or jlt 20/1.both nrnb so if he goes for a hcap I will just have to reinvest.
 
The more I look at the Arkle, especially with hopefully softening ground on the first day, as long as he gets around I just can’t see him out of the top three. If they go off like the clappers like they normally do, he may be off the bit 2/3 from home but if it turns into a stamina test late on he’ll be staying on very well. I’ve got ante post bets on both races, both without the NRNB concession so I am f***ed if he goes handicapping. Hopefully find out today when Elliott announces Samcro won’t be at the festival.
 
I have a couple of NRNB dockets on him for the Arkle myself at 25/1 and 20/1.

Nothing surprises me anymore with connections making late switches, but certainly the Arkle seems to be the most likely race for him per Elliott's comments. Especially given Le Richebourg's absence (as you've pointed out).

"I’m thinking about coming back in trip with him for the Arkle Challenge Trophy. His form over two miles is very good. He beat Us And Them very well at Navan and he has since chased home Le Richebourg twice. I’m not saying we could beat Le Richebourg, but we might just have a go at it. Softer ground would help my fella and probably wouldn’t suit Le Richebourg."

Ground highly likely to be Softest on Day one. Gigginstown would prefer an Arkle winner to a Hcp winner. There's no hotpot in the race to be running scared of. No massive depth either. Soooo with all that logic.....he'll go for the handicap :lol: fml if he does!
 
hezz said:
I have a couple of NRNB dockets on him for the Arkle myself at 25/1 and 20/1.

Nothing surprises me anymore with connections making late switches, but certainly the Arkle seems to be the most likely race for him per Elliott's comments. Especially given Le Richebourg's absence (as you've pointed out).

"I’m thinking about coming back in trip with him for the Arkle Challenge Trophy. His form over two miles is very good. He beat Us And Them very well at Navan and he has since chased home Le Richebourg twice. I’m not saying we could beat Le Richebourg, but we might just have a go at it. Softer ground would help my fella and probably wouldn’t suit Le Richebourg."

Ground highly likely to be Softest on Day one. Gigginstown would prefer an Arkle winner to a Hcp winner. There's no hotpot in the race to be running scared of. No massive depth either. Soooo with all that logic.....he'll go for the handicap :lol: fml if he does!
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I still think 12/1 without the NRNB is value to be honest with you. Granted it was over further but I honestly thought there was more to his performance in the Flogas last time out and although he jumped poorly once, he’s a good enough jumper in the main. Elliott had Delta Work beat Le Richebourg (over a trip LR not best at admittedly) but he must know the level needed to beat him and switching Hardline back to 2 miles before LR (most likely winner of the race) got injured I think is a big confidence boost considering this race has cut up so badly the last month or so.

If he goes handicapping I’ll have to back him but the value will be gone as he’d likely go off between 9/1-10/1 in the Brown Advisory if not shorter.
 
Jockey and horse were tentative down the back straight in the Flogas but he flew home. The price diff between Hardline and DDG is ridiculous.
 
Euronymous said:
Jockey and horse were tentative down the back straight in the Flogas but he flew home. The price diff between Hardline and DDG is ridiculous.
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Couldn’t agree more with that. I’m possibly bigging Hardline up way too much but if he stays up he shouldn’t be out of the first three.
 
FYI Elliot is on a preview for Betfair tomorrow evening and will presumably be asked where Hardline is running

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Needs to prove he can control that tendancy to jump out to his right and you couldn't choose a tougher scenario to put that to the test for the first time.
 
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