Novice Chasers 2018/2019

Great that he gets a run and in the right race imo. The tendency to jump right is a worry for sure but I didn’t think he’d done that before Sandown

He wasn’t beaten far at Sandown despite hating the ground but has it all to prove and may well have been flattered before that


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They had to re-poultice the foot again today & remove the shoe. Time is not kind but he’s not out.


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Desert Orchid said:
While it's hard to be sure of the solidity of the time comparisons last Friday at Cheltenham (not a strong sample of races) it looks to me like The Worlds End has put up a very strong run in his race. While I'd have preferred NRNB, I've taken 16/1 for the RSA. If my figures are correct, his would be good enough to win about eight out of ten renewals.
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Bumping this.

He's jt-top on ORs and 1lb off the top on RPRs but is about 4x the price of those around him. I'm also on at 20/1 (nrnb/bog). I'd almost forgotten about him till I was going through the card today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bumping this.

He's jt-top on ORs and 1lb off the top on RPRs but is about 4x the price of those around him. I'm also on at 20/1 (nrnb/bog). I'd almost forgotten about him till I was going through the card today.
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indeed. I’m on at 33’s Maurice. I had noted the same race. I think the ground may be going against him though.
 
TWE looked good last time at Chelts, but he didn’t really have anything much to beat, and I’d still be a little worried about his overall course form.

I’m not entirely convinced that he runs right up to his best on this track, and a big-field/crowded race, might play against him a wee bit. Prices you have pocketed obviously compensate somewhat for this risk, though.
 
I opposed TWE on the day. I had him down as iffy and over-rated.

But he made my eyes pop that day. To a small degree, he reminded me of Might Bite in his RSA, going along at a good pace and then steaming away. I was watching Ibis Du Rheu that day as the danger to Lil Rockerfeller who departed early. He let TWE get on with it, seemingly ridden with a view to picking him off at will but once he got near the leader on the back straight for the last time Fehily gave TWE a squeeze and suddenly Ibis was in reverse gear.

The time was outstanding on my figures and I'd love to have heard what Cobden (Ibis) reported back to Nicholls. They looked to me as if they fancied that race but were blown away.

As I say, I was never a fan of TWE and still wouldn't describe myself as such but the figures that race produced were top class, the kind I can't dismiss.

I subsequently read he needs time between his races, which would explain his afterthought run in the Feltham proving fruitless, more like the TWE I thought he was but with a few months off he should be ready to peak this week.

None of that is to say he'll win, obviously. As a punter, though, he fulfils some of my ideal value criteria, ie having the form to win a majority of renewals of a certain race while pretty much off the radar in the betting.
 
Fair enough, DO......though being a cautious type, I myself would likely hold a degree of scepticism about figures thrown-out by a four-runner race, where one of them departed early.
 
Grasshopper said:
Fair enough, DO......though being a cautious type, I myself would likely hold a degree of scepticism about figures thrown-out by a four-runner race, where one of them departed early.
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Absolutely. So would I. But not when it's as fast as this was. My time rating says it must have been run at championship pace.

TWE can replicate the big figure and not win. That would make it a very high class renewal, which I think it will be.

There you have it: arse-covering at its finest :)
 
I was standing close to the finishing post when TWE won in December and immediately decided the horse would be a cornerstone of my early AP bettting. The uncertainty as to which race he would run in and possible problems with soft ground led me to take him out of the second round. Forget his Kempton run which was too soon after and he had a good chance which I fear has gone with the ground and will almost certainly take the opportunity to recover my stakes and leave the rest just in case.
 
I'm convinced one of Henry's runs a huge race in the Arkle

Top up on Paloma or have a go on Ornau

If Dynamite Dollars was here, he'd be fav so Ornau is tempting
 
HawkWing said:
and for me it took me back to why i love jump racing in the first place - hope all are ok.
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Superb battle, but inexperienced riders going a mad pace over 4 miles is never going to work out well. No surprise the two fighting it out, different class.
 
No qualms about the RSA. The 'big three' involved to the line. Decent race. I wonder if the interrupted prep for Santini made the difference but Topofthegame was always looking in control.

The Worlds End hardly jumped a fence. I presume the ground was to blame and maybe he'd be better making the running in a small field on decent ground.
 
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