Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019

granger said:
The Lalors Naas race on Sunday should be as good and probably better than anything over Christmas

Battleoverdoyen really caught the eye last day
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He looked really good from the front over 2 miles in Navan. I wonder will they ride him any differently over half a mile further.
 
redundant pal said:
He looked really good from the front over 2 miles in Navan. I wonder will they ride him any differently over half a mile further.
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Just ride him to win :)

It takes away a bit from Leop xmas but greta to have a g1 this early into Jan

I think Fahy likes his horse alot but it might me more in line with next season rather than taking on the big guns Sunday
 
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Yes Dunvegan is an excellent jumper and the form of his Fairyhouse win is holding up with the second (full brother to Battleoverdoyen) and third both winning on New Years Day.

Fahy has his team in good shape too.
 
Itchy Feet was only beaten a length or so by yesterday's winner Elixir de Nutz at Cheltenham in November giving 5lb and looks decent value for the Supreme at 40/1 in several books or 33/1 NRNB with SkyBet. Clearly the Tizzard horse's improvement is there for all to see but the following article suggests only one more run before the festival was always the plan for Itchy Feet so I'm having an each way poke at nearly three times the price

https://www.beforetheoff.com/horse-...80430/Murphy-targeting-Supreme-for-Itchy-Feet
 
viking said:
Itchy Feet was only beaten a length or so by yesterday's winner Elixir de Nutz at Cheltenham in November giving 5lb and looks decent value for the Supreme at 40/1 in several books or 33/1 NRNB with SkyBet. Clearly the Tizzard horse's improvement is there for all to see but the following article suggests only one more run before the festival was always the plan for Itchy Feet so I'm having an each way poke at nearly three times the price

https://www.beforetheoff.com/horse-...80430/Murphy-targeting-Supreme-for-Itchy-Feet
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And Thomas Darby beat Exlir De Nutz last October Viking having seemingly sprouted wings at the sight of the hill. He has run two really good races since at Ascot & Kempton, giving weight to Mr Fisher at Christmas, but I cant wait to see him back at Cheltenham again. He can still be backed at 25/1.

I have 33/1 dockets on both him and Angels Breath for the Supreme so hoping one of those click.


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granger said:
Front 2 in the Naas G1 look very good horses

Battleoverdoyen looks very very green still so a real prospect him
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I know it's so cliche, but will make a better chaser. While he won nicely there, Being cut to 7/1 for Ballymore after that is a typical bookie overreaction.
 
I actually strongly dislike gigi horses for March hurdles races. This guy has a lot of potential but Cheltenham could easily blow his skull. I have him backed at bigger odds so happy to see people join the party
 
Nice to see BOD respond well for pressure too. First time he’d have got a proper crack of the whip. Still green but got it together well.


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A friend of mine is an equine physio but also specialises in gait & conformation analysis, specifically in analyzing horse strides patterns and he comes up with some really fascinating results. He is fairly impressed with Champs Challow Hurdle performance. Thought some of you might be interested in his findings.




Champ Manual Stride Analysis G1 Challow Nov Hurdle 20.5f Newb

Manual Stride Speed Analysis

Strides/10s *11

19.92 20.36 20.66 20.83 22.32 22.32 23.04 23.20* 22.32 22.83 21.18

Cruising Speed Av 20.61
Peak Speed 23.20
Final 100m 21.18
Cruising Speed% V Peak 88.83
Final 100m% V Peak 91.29
Final 100m% V Cruising 102.76
Champ Notes:

An early slow pace clouding issues. Keen early off an easy 5 second 10 stride pace. Jumping speed impressed with a 0.44s jump recorded late on. The most impressive attribute of Champ is once he reached 22.32 strides/10s he was able to maintain or sustain that value or higher, which included peaking, to 125m from line or for a whooping 38sec.

Only 5 G1 NH horses I’ve recorded have had a faster stride peak speed of 4.31s or faster for 10 strides.

Physically ungainly with big outward-inward frontal rotation or nonlinear movement. High probability of front leg trauma and soundness issues going forward. Potentially a top class stayer who may cope with a drop back in trip. Ideally suited to 20f. His jump speed is already at a Champion Hurdler speed level. Novice who wouldn’t look out of place against seasoned hurdlers at top level.


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Listening to his trainer/jocks you get the impression Champ has surprised them.

As your friend suggests Kauto there must be soundness issues if they were deciding to kick on with him in Perth back in the spring.

In a season where many horses going to the festival will be turning up off an interrupted preparation his experience will stand to him.

That said all his wins have been around flat tracks where he hasn't had to battle and with an ease in the ground.
 
granger said:
Front 2 in the Naas G1 look very good horses

Battleoverdoyen looks very very green still so a real prospect him
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Like you I was very taken by Sam's Profile especially the way he ran on when getting out despite in and out jumping.
Mouse often had one placed at a big price in Festival Novice hurdles.
Family of Synchronised so will not stop when the pressure is on.
25/1 for Ballymore is attractive for a middle aged ew fogey like me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Did your friend name the five?
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Buveur D’Air 4.00S
Quick Grabim 4.06s
Le Richebourg 4.20s
Un De Sceaux 4.20s
Sharjah 4.21s
Champ 4.31s

Any gaps in between are filled by the same horses. For example Buveur D’Air has a 4.08 and 4.12. He confirms a horse with that stride speed if it repeats it twice. In flat racing terms these would be sprinter stride speeds and he’s long held the notion that he’d love to see Buv in a group flat race from 12f +.

His analysis are really something.


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Cheers, KA.

It's all the more galling that I was on Sharjah more than once in last year's Supreme. I was convinced he didn't run to form on the day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, KA.

It's all the more galling that I was on Sharjah more than once in last year's Supreme. I was convinced he didn't run to form on the day.
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I think a combo of the fact he’s only back to himself now after that Leopardstown fall and he’s clearly thrived on good ground DO.


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Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, KA.

It's all the more galling that I was on Sharjah more than once in last year's Supreme. I was convinced he didn't run to form on the day.
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Sharjah needs it good. He didn't go a yard in the heavy ground in the Supreme last year. His last 2 wins have been on good ground, coming late of a strong pace. That ground and run style was never going to see him to best effect in the Supreme.

I appreciate he won the Galway hurdle on soft, but I think that's more relative to the fact he had 15lbs in hand running off OR 146 on the day. He's 163 horse now only 5 months later......
 
The going stick on the first day of the festival last year read 4.4. Horrific ground. I can’t remember it ever being do bad. There was false patches all the way up the straight.


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