Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019

I'm wondering if we could be in for a few shocks in the novice races, hurdles and chases.

Apart from the Supreme which looks good, the Ballymore looks bog-standard and the Arkle is more like a handicap. I'll look at others in due course.

Last year in the Supreme Summerville Boy went in third-top rated on 150 behind Kalashnikov (154) and came out rated 156. In 2017 Labaik went from 144 to 154 for winning. In 2016 Altior was already on 155 ahead of the race (I had him 12lbs clear on 164). This year we have seven (including EDN) rated at least 150.

In the Ballymore only Champ is rated above 150 and I have reservations about the mark if not necessarily his potential. Last year three were rated 150+ and a few right on their heels. The year before, the ceiling was 148 (Neon Wolf) and in 2016 Yanworth (158) and Yorkhill (156) were clear of O O Seven on 150.

As for the Arkle, the last few winners have been:

Footpad (rated 162 going into the race)
Altior (170)
Douvan (161)
Un De Sceaux (166)

What have we this year?

[TABLE="width: 451"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Hardline
[/TD]
[TD] 37
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Us And Them
[/TD]
[TD] 38
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Duc Des Genievres
[/TD]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ornua
[/TD]
[TD] 94
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lalor
[/TD]
[TD] 94
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glen Forsa
[/TD]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Kalashnikov
[/TD]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knocknanuss
[/TD]
[TD] 38
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Eight horses within 5lbs of each other.

Sheesh.
 
I was convinced EDN for the Supreme. I'm taking that form and I've got Itchy Feet E/W, 33/1 is the wrong price, especially getting 7 places I think at Hills.

I had NRNB, so will be refunded. Aramon shouldn't be that price of Klassical Dream goes off fav.

Based purely on prices my 2 darts will be Itchy Feet and Aramon.

Hardline for the Arkle is going to be my biggest bet tomorrow. I also really like Red Indian in the Close Brothers, but won't be ignoring Slim if he thinks 'Good man Pat' has 2 stones in hand.
 
I reckon Jarveys Plate will out run his odds in The Ballymore. I've kept mentioning him as a 'good yardstick', I suppose he might need supporting in his own right.
 
Last edited:
Double J said:
I was convinced EDN for the Supreme. I'm taking that form and I've got Itchy Feet E/W, 33/1 is the wrong price, especially getting 7 places I think at Hills.

I had NRNB, so will be refunded. Aramon shouldn't be that price of Klassical Dream goes off fav.

Based purely on prices my 2 darts will be Itchy Feet and Aramon.

Hardline for the Arkle is going to be my biggest bet tomorrow. I also really like Red Indian in the Close Brothers, but won't be ignoring Slim if he thinks 'Good man Pat' has 2 stones in hand.
Click to expand...
I'm not on either but I'd agree they're the value JJ.
 
Well done all Klassical Dreams backers. That was quite impressive although I wonder if the main dangers ran their races.

Well done too to those who mentioned the outsiders that made the frame.

Should have put them on the longshot thread!
 
Itchy Feet got me a fair bit of profit. 33s was a steal. Didn't think it has a chance out. I'm positive improvement will come. No doubt Sheehan would have been further forward I'd not for the start. Lost ground there.

One I'll be keeping on side next year.
 
On the number 4 post on here I mentioned RESERVE TANK as a novice to keep an eye on. His record since LWWW, the latest at Aintree today at a tasty 20/1. Pity I don’t follow the jumpers any more.
 
Trainer seemed surprised at the victory today on RacingTV , will go 3m in time, but meanwhile has to consider Punchestown now.
 
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