TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE
SO, here we are in the wilderness weeks.
Cheltenham and Aintree have come and gone and only the upcoming week at Punchestown provides some dignity to the slow death of the real jump season.
Every other day in the racing pages there's a short paragraph naming the latest jumper to down tools for the season and a whole column on the summer prospects of some flat racer that you had at best forgotten about and at worst, never even heard of at all.
So how were the festivals for you then? If you are among those still tickled by the dual display of greatness by Denman and Master Minded, then there is nothing at all to apologise for. Visually at least, Denman validated all the hype that consumed the lead up to the Gold Cup and Master Minded produced a display in the Champion Chase that came from the outer reaches of that mythical left field.
The manner of his victory had some commentators, normally well known for an ability to differentiate a shovel from a spade, reaching for their pocket encyclopaedias of equine hyperbole.
Or maybe you are part of that other group - the 'unconvinced.' These are the ones that feel that something does not quite stack up in the performances of Denman and Master Minded but they are not quite sure they want to be accused of infecting all the post-festival happiness with an unwelcome case of 'party poopery.' They feel a bit like the kid who was brought to the cinema to see the first Harry Potter film. He feels compelled to eulogise the movie in order to please his parents, but then complains privately to his school mates that the special effects were crap.
Conventional wisdom has it the Gold Cup was a classic, a do-or-die duel between the two best steeplechasers for a generation. But three unanswered questions linger of how satisfactory a contest it really was. What kind of race did Kauto Star really run?
Was Denman out of gas long before the finish line? And how come Neptune Collonges got so close to the winner?
The immediate post-race pronunciation by Denman's owner, Harry Findlay, that he had "broke the whole lot of them a long way out" is a myopic analysis. He didn't take up the running until they set out on the second circuit and by that stage his stablemate, Kauto Star, was already jumping indifferently.
To put it in perspective, the dual winner of the twomile Tingle Creek Chase was struggling to lie up with a pace set by Neptune Collonges who could never be confused with a very fast horse. When Kauto was beaten again last week in ideal conditions at Aintree it added substance to a suspicion that he hasn't been 100 per cent right since his injury at Ascot in February.
Sam Thomas rode a brilliant tactical race on Denman. He did everything right and a one mile injection of pace on the second circuit won him the race. However, less than an hour after the Gold Cup, Amicelli, rated over four-stone inferior to Denman but carrying four pounds more, won the hunter chase over exactly the same course in a time that was 14 seconds slower.
This is not particularly notable, but what is significant is that the hunter chaser covered the distance from the second last fence to the line quicker than the Gold Cup winner, suggesting Denman was empty for the last couple of furlongs. Of course there is no suggestion of prerace collusion, but Neptune's tactics set the race up for Denman. The fact that he was able to lead for a circuit, get dropped and then have enough left in the tank to halve Denman's lead from the second last fence is surprising. Unless, of course, the race was not quite as good as it looked.
So what's all this got to do with the price of turnips then?
Not much until you consider the way that these performances have been rated in Britain, where there seems to be an eagerness to ensure that even a small bit of reality doesn't get in the way of all the hype. The influential Racing Post ratings have Denman almost on a par with the great Desert Orchid and Master Minded, on foot of his breathtaking performance in the Champion Chase. The problem is that in his next race at Aintree Master Minded was beaten 18 lengths by Voy Por Ustudes which leaves us with two options. Either the merit of the performance of Master Minded at Cheltenham was massively exaggerated or that Voy Por is suddenly an exceptional horse.
The ratings compilers took the easy way out. They rated Voy Por Ustedes only a pound below the great Moscow Flyer which is a bit like saying that on the evidence of one great run in Liverpool that Theo Walcott is as good as Thierry Henry.
Evaluation of Denman's true ability faces a similar problem. To buy the superlatives following his Gold Cup victory then you need to believe that the real Kauto Star turned up. Without him in the race, Neptune Collonges would have been second but beaten by five lengths less than Kauto beat him in last years Gold Cup.
Then there is the puzzle of Aintree last week, when Our Vic, who doesn't quite stay three miles in a horse box, beat Kauto Star over three miles and a furlong. So rather than face the inconvenient probability that Kauto Star has been underperforming since he won the King George at Christmas and downgrade the rating of Denman, Our Vic instead was elevated to a level higher than even the triple Gold Cup winner, Best Mate, and the value of Denman's effort at Cheltenham was protected.
So as the jump season winds down we have five English chasers rated at 180 or better by the Racing Post, a level of performance that is rarely reached by any horse.
(Only a couple of current hurdlers even make the low 170s. ) This could all be true. There may well be an unusual cluster of incredibly talented steeplechasers gathered in the south west of England.
Or maybe the Cheltenham performances of Master Minded and Denman were too good to be true. This, of course, is the real beauty of National Hunt racing. With a fair wind behind them they will all be back to do it all again next season and the arguments will continue or be settled.
Let's hope that next year's rematches, like the Harry Potter films, just get better all the time.
so anyone can spend the summer at it