Because some polls have just had obama as much as 7 points behind in the popular vote and at best obama is even. The momentum is moving away from the lacklustre president. My hunch is that it coukd be unstoppable now
I would strongly caution against using one poll which is very much an outlier to draw any conclusions, Clive. In terms of the national polling, Realclearpolitics have Romney 0.9 points ahead at the minute (not sure if it's been updated for today's polls).
That said, all of the more serious data-driven forecasters (and the campaigns themselves) actually use state polls to "power" their models.* State polls generally are less prone to statistical noise and thus tend (note: tend
) to provide better indicators. As things stand, the majority of these I have seen give Obama a slender lead as far as I can see.
About the first debate: as I think I said before, if Romney does win we will look back at the first debate as the turning point, but his momentum - in the polls at least - has flattened out in the last week or so. That said, the bounce was certainly enough to put him right back in the game, at the very least.
About the electoral map: Florida has tipped Romney's way though Obama hasn't given up there by any means judging by the amount of times he has been there recently and will be there in the next few days.
Ohio is pretty much the be all and end all this election. Both Obama and Romney can win the election without Ohio, but I would nearly argue their paths to winning are (almost) equally difficult. Obama would have to win in Colorado and Virginia (the two tightest states on the map) as well as holding in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada. I think he will hold Wisconsin and Nevada, but Iowa is really tight if we believe the polling.
The reason it's slightly tougher for Romney is because he has to win Iowa and Nevada if he loses Ohio. As opposed to the knife-edge states (Va./Co. - both of which Romney would have to hold) Obama would have to win, Obama has a lead in both Nevada and Iowa, and I find it hard to see him losing Nevada. I could easily be wrong. Also, the population in Iowa is relatively similar demographically to that in Ohio, so if Romney (or Obama) does worse than expected in Ohio, he may be in trouble in Iowa as well.
About the punting: I think the advantage is with Obama, but 2/5 is on the short side. The election is tighter than that I think. The nerds who do these things for a living in dark offices in Washington for their (and my...) paymasters reckon Obama has a 65.8999% chance of winning the election using their state aggregation method as of two hours ago. So I suppose I would be looking for bigger than 2's on to be getting any value right now.
Incidentally, Intrade only give Obama something like a 57% chance of winning outright.
I think I said a few posts ago that if Romney won it would be because things tilted in his favour nationally. I (think I) will be wrong about that. This will come down to the electoral map, but that does not necessarily mean Obama is a nailed on, 12-inch hammer job.
*In forming a national picture from state polls, you have to weight the numbers by voter turn-out by state. This is where the methodology differs from firm to firm.
