One To Back & One To Lay

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At the Start
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Right with all the trials over name me one horse to back and another to lay at the festival and tell us why.

Back

Mossbank in the Ryanair. Really love this horse and have done since his novice hurdle days. Delighted to see him get his act together over fences and I think this is the right race for him at this stage of his career. Generally a good jumper and he is blessed with that right mix of speed and stamina. Will come here in good form, with a light campaign. Gives every impression that he should relish any drying conditions. Our Vic is hugely talented but he does not win often enough and he had a hard race the last day. The Listener does not like Cheltenham plus Mossbank beat him on decent ground in the Lexus. Tamarinbleu looks the danger and seems to be freshen up again for this.

Lay

Master Minded in the Queen Mother. Clearly a talented and exciting recruit nonetheless he faces a very tough task for such a young horse. I had a look at his win the last day and to me he was at his least impressive in the last half furlong when VPU was looking better and better. Off level weights and in a fast run Queen Mother I think we will see the result reversed.
 
Back

My Way De Solzen EW in the World Hurdle.

Not had the season many thought, but at 16/1 i make this animal a cracking each way bet. Inglis Drever the reason it isn`t a straight win bet. He loves the course and the race he had the other day will have brought him on a ton. When searching for value i like to compare a given horses odds to rivals shorter in the betting, and there is no way that Wichita Lineman and Hardy Eustace should be at shorter odds. Blazing Bailey and Kasbah Bliss strike me as inconsistant beasts as well. If he runs anywhere near his best he should be second - and short priced horses have a habit of failing at the Festival so he may even win.

Lay

Sizing Europe in the Champion Hurdle.

I fully accept that this horse is the one they have to beat in this race, but at 9/4 i`d be laying him till the cows come home if i wasn`t already tooled up with AP bets on Harchibald and Sublimity. I don`t think SE has the natural hurdling technique that will be needed a week on Tuesday, he doesn`t glide over them, he skies them. The race will be run at a really fast pace, and that will put a huge premium on jumping. Sublimity will have conditions very similar to last year and Harchibald has an engine that was surely designed by the horsey equivalent of Ferrari. I make them the most likely winners.
 
Back:
Sentry Duty
Sezing Europe



lay
Master Minded and Twist Magic
Tidal Bay (in any race)
Mossbank
Noland
 
Back

Harchibald. 8/1 is a marvelous price for a horse that is almost certain to be cruising to the last. Difficult job for Carberry to finish the job, but he has plenty of practice. It's not hard to believe he didn't give his running against Straw Bear, although he still should have won.

Great value at 8/1 to win. Maybe better value at 2/1 that he'll hit 2/1 in running (He's not worth sticking up at odds on as in running backers won't be fooled anymore and you are likely only to be taken up when he can't be beaten). Maybe better value at just under 2/1 to be placed.

Carberry has tended to get there too soon on the horse. Normally with a hold up horse you want to get there in time in case you fluff the last. With Harchibald, Carberry needs to be three lengths down at the last and work on the assumption he'll fly it. he's on a Hiding to nothing anyway. If he's upsides at the last he'll be beaten, worse in my opinion than fluffing the last and not getting there on time.

(Honourable mention: Sweet Kiln)

Lay

Inglis Drever.

Admirable horse that he is you can't take evens on a horse where the stable are so wrong. Flat spots enough that things can go against him even if he is on form. The field will be riding to beat him and worry about the rest later.

(Honourable mention: Master Minded)
 
Originally posted by sunybay@Feb 28 2008, 12:20 AM
Back:
Sentry Duty
Sezing Europe



lay
Master Minded and Twist Magic
Tidal Bay (in any race)
Mossbank
Noland
Click to expand...
Back:
Sentry Duty
jumps very well, top trainer, good cruishing speed.

Sizing Europe
Best form in the field, more scope than the rest, fits all the trends.


lay
Master Minded and Twist Magic
the former has not form in the course and is a very possible faller for me
the later will not stay the hill and the form is not as good as Tamarinble or last years VPU.

Tidal Bay (in any race)
new Black JAck Ketchum, bad jumper, overrated.

Mossbank
many doubts about his December form, it was a slowly run race.

Noland
was a year off, the form is not on the book, typical false favorite.
 
Back - Harchibald. Class of the field.

(Honourable mention - Inglis Drever)

Lay - Denman. Up against the classiest of them all.

(Honourable mention - VPU - no good reason, it is just a hard habit to get out of)
 
Back

Sentry Duty. Fancied this for some time now and suprised hes still available at the price he is. Some of those ahead of him in the market have real question marks against them whereas SD's last performance in beating (the still highly rated by PN) Celestial Halo easily could be special. hes confirmed for thh Supreme

Otherwise Master Minded who beat VPU nicely and could easily be a star in the making

Lay

Sublimity. They may well get him spot on but the fact that he hasnt been seen since that last poor run is a huge negative for me. Suspect its not gone that smoothly

Otherwise its any underexposed hype horse which attracts lemming like cash in the couple of days before the race
 
Lets get struck in now.....havent really got into the jumps season this year as much as the previous ones, the last couple of days have changed all that though!

Back
River Liane (Fred Winter) - Thoroughly taken by the performance today, its normally a weak race and Im sure the 7sthe Tote and Skybet offering will go.

Ringaroses ( Coral Cup) - If this horse gets there in one piece, the 7s on offer now (9s earlier in the week) is big,his re-appearance was thoroughly impressive and will have a nice racing weight. He will be there or thereabouts, Coral are paying out on the 1st 5 home. Obvious danger is leg spinner.

Group Captain ( Ballymore Properties Hurdle) - Classy on the flat and seems to have transferred his ability over hurdles. The Irish bunch to my eyes anyway, looks much of a muchness in this division, more chasing types and his flat speed shoudl hopefully be put to good use.

Billyvoddan ( Ryanair) - The 33s for him in this race is way over price imo. He was there or thereabouts in this last year and arguably, bar Mossbank, this year's race is weaker than last year's renewal. He hasnt had good runs this season but there were good reasonings. Henry
Daly's form has been a bit and out this year. Too many outs.............

LAY

Noland - I cant help but think he will get outpaced in this race. I looked at the field again and Im not sure what to make of it, Kruguyrova will go off on a good clip, ensuring a test of stamina...Leslingtaylor maybe? I quite fancy French Accordion's chances in this but he might not run. If Tidal Bay, jumps round, despite what has been said above, I think he will be very hard to beat.

Of teh other races, I think Sizing Europe sets the bar and will eb one they all have to beat. The first race supreme novices looks like a cracking betting heat, 7s might be the price of the jollies...well maybe 5s...I got on Captain Cee Bee at fancy prices, no way does he deserve to be jolly though. I also like Sentry Duty in the race. In teh Sun Alliance Chase, I like Oscar park and Ornais, not sure about the front 3. Also just had a dabble at Big Eared Fran 14s for the bumper...Zaaarito looks solid enough but he is short now.....

Any other thoughts???????????????
 
Back:

A lot of people have gone for Harchie here - and I said a while back Harchie for a place is my bet of the festival - and I haven't changed that opinion. Can't see him out of the frame.

Will be sticking on the side of Wanango wherever he goes and also Robin Du Bois.

Had a few quid on River Liane after today

Inglis Drever will be no price but is reliable as you can hope for in what I think is a difficult Festival with few outstanding bankers - the same with Kauto Star.

Lay:
Agree about Master Minded and Noland - think lack of experience factors against them both. Then again, I'm not sure who to recommend for their respective races. Not convinced by Tidal Bay either. Or any of the Sun Alliance Chase front runners - that race is primed for an outsider.
 
Back: I think Kauto Star is the best horse since Sliced Bread (no need to look him up; he won two Gold Cups and a National off 175 in the early 70s). Howver, the best bet has got to be Muirhead at 8s in the opener.

He should have tons of improvement from his Royal Bond win, and Meade's string is back on track in time.

Honourable mentions go to Silverburn (I told ya he would be around 5s) and I would be interested if Dreux were allowed take his chance in the Jewson.

Lay: Noland
 
One to back (Drever aside, as it's a given that he's the banker!!!) : Denman. In another year in the absence of Kauto Star the horse would be long odds-on so is a great price currently. Of course he has to beat Kauto Star but I believe that in this race, at this track, he has a very real chance of doing so.

One to lay : Twist Magic. Not convinced by him and not so sure he will get up the hill well enough to win the race.
 
Point noted about 1 back and 1 lay but since many are selecting one particular horse as a lay to be contentious I will argue for that as a back.

Back
NOLAND
Hasn't touched a twig as a chaser albeit only 2 races. Proven at Cheltenham when finishing faster than the rest to beat Straw Bear in a championship race. That was only his 5th hurdle race and he is an older and wiser horse nowdays. Trained by Nicholls who rates him his banker of the the meetiing. Many of his opponents, such as that highly experienced chaser Clopf, have made mistakes jumping (which is of course the name of the game).
In reality there is little evidence of a depth of quality in the field ( as in the other novice races this year). Arkle winners generally tend to progress as stars and at this stage I can't see any other that could become a star. BTW I have enough at much better prices, thank you.
Others. Sentry Duty,Zaarito

KING HARALD- WILL HILL CHASE
10st. Ilb.! For a horse that has returned to the level he was pre-injury, ie a very good handicapper who has won at the Festival. His performance LTO was an amazing faultless pillar to post win. At 20/1+ a stonking ew bet with strong win prospects

Lay
The Champion Hurdle.
All of them, it's a nightmare.
 
I was just thinking today that Noland could be an in running bet for the Arkle.Mahogany Blaze will probably go off hard and fast and it is Rubys natural style to hold them up.I know in running isn't everyones cup of tea but it worked nicely for me last year with Wichita Lineman and I will be trying to back this one at big odds in running.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Mar 2 2008, 09:28 PM
In another year in the absence of Kauto Star the horse would be long odds-on so is a great price currently.
Click to expand...
Don't think anybody's disputing that, Shadow Leader. How does that make him a "great price" though?
 
Back Harchibald
Lay Harchibald

No, this is not a typing error..Have Harchi backed at a decent price, will put up an offer on the day to lay him around 3's.
 
But how low do you go.

I would imagine there will be a rush to lay him as soon as Carberry assumes the bum in the air position. In a situation where there are a flood of layers, standard market force logic would imply you want to be a backer. Having thought long and hard about it I think I'll just let the bet I have on him stand and sit and suffer if things start to go wrong.
 
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