One To Back & One To Lay

i think 6/4 would be matched. 2.5. Will travel, and I'm convinced that he was wrong at Kempton, even before coming back on the bridle at the 2nd last. Was niggled to go past the also rans turning in. It will be a strong pace and maybe he will sit of the leaders turning in. I would expect a 2.5 lay to be matched, maybe even shorter. Layers obviously know about the chelt hill as well.
 
Back - Knowhere 33/1 Gold Cup. As good an each way chance as any of the outsiders and recent course winning form a plus.


Lay - Sizing Europe 2/1 Champion Hurdle - terrible value. Beat horses past their prime at Leopardstown, and Osana enjoys a 6lb pull for the Greatwood defeat. Plenty of horses queuing up to take him on makes him a great lay.
 
I love Harchibald but I am genuinely amazed that so many on here think he has anything better than fair each way claims (especially Melendez - who I generally regard as quite a good judge). As far as I am concerned, he is thoroughly exposed as being not quite good enough. If comparing how far Al Eile was beaten by Harchibald in The Fighting Fifth to how far he was beaten by Sizing Europe in The AIG doesn't convince you, then surely a defeat by Straw Bear should.

Good luck to you all and I'd love to see him run well but the idea that he will be matched in-running at 6/4 is laughable.
 
Originally posted by Tout Seul@Mar 2 2008, 09:31 PM
Point noted about 1 back and 1 lay but since many are selecting one particular horse as a lay to be contentious I will argue for that as a back.

Back
NOLAND
Hasn't touched a twig as a chaser albeit only 2 races. Proven at Cheltenham when finishing faster than the rest to beat Straw Bear in a championship race. That was only his 5th hurdle race and he is an older and wiser horse nowdays. Trained by Nicholls who rates him his banker of the the meetiing. Many of his opponents, such as that highly experienced chaser Clopf, have made mistakes jumping (which is of course the name of the game).
In reality there is little evidence of a depth of quality in the field ( as in the other novice races this year). Arkle winners generally tend to progress as stars and at this stage I can't see any other that could become a star. BTW I have enough at much better prices, thank you.
Others. Sentry Duty,Zaarito

KING HARALD- WILL HILL CHASE
10st. Ilb.! For a horse that has returned to the level he was pre-injury, ie a very good handicapper who has won at the Festival. His performance LTO was an amazing faultless pillar to post win. At 20/1+ a stonking ew bet with strong win prospects

Lay
The Champion Hurdle.
All of them, it's a nightmare.
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Where did Nicholls label him as his banker of the meeting?
 
When addressing the phalanx of reporters at his pre-Cheltenham press meeting. Widely reported.
 
Originally posted by Relkeel@Mar 3 2008, 12:47 PM
I love Harchibald but I am genuinely amazed that so many on here think he has anything better than fair each way claims (especially Melendez - who I generally regard as quite a good judge). As far as I am concerned, he is thoroughly exposed as being not quite good enough. If comparing how far Al Eile was beaten by Harchibald in The Fighting Fifth to how far he was beaten by Sizing Europe in The AIG doesn't convince you, then surely a defeat by Straw Bear should.

Good luck to you all and I'd love to see him run well but the idea that he will be matched in-running at 6/4 is laughable.
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I don't accept the defeat by Straw Bear was his true running, even allowing for that his idiosyncracies prevented him from winning. Granted, he wont win a Champion Hurdle if he runs like that, but I'm happy to accept he was wrong in line with the rest of Meade's horses and has recovered in line as well. I doubt even you are really convinced by the Al Eile argument - did you really expect him to shoot 10l clear? I am certain on Fighting Fifth day he would have had no problem travelling up to something a half a dozen lengths or more further ahead of katchit.
 
Most of the public think Harchibald is a "dog"...I don't. Has there ever been such a popular horse that has (according to others) such bad/unpopular characteristics?
 
One to back - Noland. Ticks all the right boxes for me, and I can't say that I think this year is going to take a huge amount of winning.

One to lay - Master Minded. Think he is going to be found out in some way on the day. Not convinced that he will confirm the placings with Voy Por Ustedes.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 3 2008, 04:12 PM
Most of the public think Harchibald is a "dog"
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Do they?

Shadow Leader does - but if she is a reflection of how most of the public think then I fear for the future of the human race!


Mel

In general, I disagree with you about The Christmas Hurdle. However, I will concede that the closing stages didn't pan-out in Harchibald's favour (be it because Carberry miss-timed things, McCoy is a genius or whatever), that he is overall a better horse than Straw Bear and that a more strongly run race will suit him better.

I'm not sure what you are getting at about The Fighting Fifth. As far as I was concerned, he was shoved-out to the line about as strongly as he ever is and that that is about as good as he is (with perhaps a couple of pounds to be added "for the win"). I put it to you that Sizing Europe could also have beaten Al Eile by much further than he actually did.

Overall, I still feel that he just isn't quite good enough.


For the record...

One to back:

Tamarinbleu (Ryanair)

One to lay:

Twist Magic (Champion Chase)
 
Relks, I've amazed that someone who watches racing so much could get caught up in the topic of distances when it comes to a horse like Archie

The horse is no dig, but he only ever does enough. I don't agree that he was pushed out more vigorously than any of his other wins when he won at Newcastle. My theory on the Christmas Hurdle is that if there was a superior horse to Straw Bear in the race that had pulled away from him then Harchi would have gone with him - never minding the fact that Harchi wasn't well that day, didn't feel right going down to the start as the Meade horses were at the start of their winter nightmare spell. To be honest, I'd be writing that race off completely.

Whatever about Harchi's quirks, there is no way that he's not quite 'good enough'. To be honest, I think he's got the best form in the book of all the contenders and if he reproduces it then he'll be no worse than second [see above quirks for reasons!]
 
Originally posted by trackside528+Mar 3 2008, 01:39 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (trackside528 @ Mar 3 2008, 01:39 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Shadow Leader@Mar 2 2008, 09:28 PM
In another year in the absence of Kauto Star the horse would be long odds-on so is a great price currently.
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Don't think anybody's disputing that, Shadow Leader. How does that make him a "great price" though? [/b][/quote]
Because, as I've said, I think he can beat Kauto Star. It is only the presence of KS in the field which has kept Denman's price at odds against. Ergo I think he is a great price and was even more of a good price when I backed him a little while back at 2.
 
One to back : Knowhere E/W Gold Cup.....could cause a massive shock as he has some engine and a plodder always surprises.

One to lay : Exotic Dancer....just don't rate him and can't see him in the first 3
 
Back

Kauto Star, the only horse that can beat him is himself but looks to have sorted out his jumping now and cannot see any realistic threat ,sorry Harry.


Lay


Katchit , no effin chance, never was, never will be.
 
BACK - Khyber Kim First Race First Day hoping for a flyer.

Very impressive at Newbury FTO & showed a good attitude winning by 2l from Theatre Girl,there was another 24l back to the 3rd.Theatre Girl came out & finished 2nd again but nothing from that race as really franked the form. KK then went to Doncaster & was a bitter disappointment in a race won by the Keith Reveley trained Tazbar.That one & the 2nd ,Whiteoak, have both come out & won since & you have to feel that KK didn't show his true form that day & is worth another chance.

LAY - Air Force One - RSA Wednesday

Bad race for FAV's & six year olds.A top 3 finish in your last race is a must for horses in this race so ignore anything with a 4 or worse as its last run.Horses aged 7 or 8 have the best record in the race so as things stand that reduces the field to 12. Personally I think Albertas Run can finish in front of Air Force One again here given his course form but whether that will be for the win is another matter.An interesting one at a bigger price is Roll Along,similar to Albertas Run,very lightly raced & from a stable that knows the time of day.
 
Back
Tidal Bay - if he runs in RSA chase
Lodge Lane - Albert Bartlett Novice hurdle
Rippling ring - Supreme novices

Lay - anything else in the RSA if Tidal Bay runs
 
Back - Harchibald - Champion Hurdle

I've backed him e/w ante post prior to Friday at Dundalk and I think that he will be travelling the best of all of them two out. It's just a question of whether Carberry can time the run to perfection as I seriously think he's back to his best.

Lay - Inglis Drever - World Hurdle

Granted that he is the best horse in the race but 10/11 when the stable is under a large cloud with lots of the horses coughing etc I think you'll be able to find one at a better price to beat it on the day.
 
Welcome to the forum WelshWizard1973.

The sad thing about Inglis Drever is that you have to lay him at about 13/8 (last time I looked). I'd happily lay him at 5/4, but 13/8 is heading into the grey area for me.

And what happened in 1973?
 
Place Lay - Sweet Kiln
Back - Gaspara

Sweet Kiln has been beaten both times she has faced anything of note over 2m4f, when she has won over the trip, she has dominated in poor races, the track is a complete unknown, and I think she will get royally found out.

Gaspara has acquitted herself well in amongst the big boys, and as a previous Festival winner, there are no worries about track, trip or going. I think she is a good thing, and 7/1 is a great price.
 
Personally, I think any of Sweet Kiln's two and a half mile runs this year will be enough to win, and I think you need to be very brave to place lay her. There seems very little strength in depth in the race, and she does tend to run her race regardless of whether she dominates. She has little experience in big fields, but she's unlikely to see most of them after the tapes go up so it shouldn't be a problem. She seemed quite happy being led at Christmas, it wont be a lead at all costs situation.

I'm not too worried about her being beaten the last day, 3 miles on heavy would stretch her a bit, but I'd be happier if she'd won. Had she won, she'd be my banker of the meeting but I'm a little worried that maybe her form might be tapering off. She still will be among my 4 or 5 major bets for the meeting.
 
Each to their own Melendez, but the balance of her form leaves her with plenty to do on an unfamiliar track, imo.

I don't view beating the likes of Rosaker and Emotional Moment as being anywhere near good enough to keep the likes of Gaspara, Refinement and Chomba Womba behind her. We'll find out in a little over a week, I guess.
 
If Mick Fitz has declared Chomba Womba to be his most likely winner of the meeting, that's good enough for me! So I can't have Sweet Kiln either

I've backed for about half the races already, but I'll leave listing my back and lay til nearer the day!
 
I know i put this up already, but has anyone got or know where to find the a transcript of the preview with Paul Nicholls involved?? Much appreciated if someone can shed some light on it!
 
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