One To Oppose At The Festival

Agreed Rory. The prices seem to me to be based on the fact that Alaivan was far superior on the flat but Katchit was barely rated 70 on the flat and look what he did.

I would much rather back Elliot's charge at this stage. Alaivan looks too highly strung to me and is likely to lose it in the Triumph.
 
Aragorn said:
Agreed Rory. The prices seem to me to be based on the fact that Alaivan was far superior on the flat but Katchit was barely rated 70 on the flat and look what he did.
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I disagree - like I said on a line through Leblon in terms of distance and style Alaivan ran miles below what he did on his earlier run.
 
Galileo said:
I disagree - like I said on a line through Leblon in terms of distance and style Alaivan ran miles below what he did on his earlier run.
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That's a slightly dubious form line though - you're taking it for granted that Leblon didn't improve for an extra run over hurdles which he should have and even a literal reading of that debut form would still put Alaivan behind Carlito Brigante. Not that it can't all be turned around - I'm happy to admit it's up in the air to some degree, just that rating the juvenile form through Leblon is a bit unsatisfactory.
 
rorydelargy said:
The point is that this really really is rock solid form in the context of the Albert Bartlett and the 4/1 is a reasonable price which will contract further unless we get a protracted dry spell. Far be it from me to tell you guys what you should be laying, but if you must take him on, wait until he's trading at 2/1!!
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Hard to disagree with that having gone through the race in a bit more detail ~ very little depth to it.

What do you make of Restless Harry? Very difficult to get a handle on the Challow form given the atrotious conditions and steady pace. Possibly ground dependent as well.

Enterprise Park interests me most of the rest. The Limerick form is working out very nicely but I wasn't impressed with the way he jumped on that ocassion, particularly when the pace increased on the final circuit. Hard to justify backing him after that, though he should improve for the step up in trip and clearly has a serious engine. Shinrock Paddy's Navan form is weak enough imo; he'll have to improve on that significantly. Not sure better ground at Cheltenham will suit him either.

Najaf is a total fly in the ointment. Somewhat surprising that the bookies that a horse with that sort of profile is available at 20's?
 
Galileo said:
I disagree - like I said on a line through Leblon in terms of distance and style Alaivan ran miles below what he did on his earlier run.
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My point is that even on his best form he doesn't deserve to be a 4/1 shot for this race. He was impressive the last day but how his price could be cut 6 points on that form (Loch Long ffs!) is beyond me.

He may well have the best chance (think it was Hamm who made that point), but this race should 11/2 or 6/1 bar in my book.
 
trackside528 said:
My point is that even on his best form he doesn't deserve to be a 4/1 shot for this race. He was impressive the last day but how his price could be cut 6 points on that form (Loch Long ffs!) is beyond me.

He may well have the best chance (think it was Hamm who made that point), but this race should 11/2 or 6/1 bar in my book.
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Fair enough I would not argue over a point here or there in the betting.

Loch Long could be interesting later on - talented (if highly tried) on the flat.
 
Good stuff Rory, just cannot help but think a couple will be too good for him come the day but some interesting ratings points you highlight.

rorydelargy said:
Just to go back to Massini's Maguire, and apologies for labouring a point. He isn't particularly flashy and he isn't the best novice in training, but anyone who wants to oppose him at 4/1 needs to be aware of how good his form is in black and white and how comparitively weak the Albert Bartlett is. Horses with ratings in the 120s have regularly been competitive in the race and the likes of Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman came into the race with ratings in the high 140s. I believe the highest rating ever was a slightly dubious 155 given to Flight Leader after he beat Temoin and The French Furze at the New Year's Day fixture. Pride Of Dulcote was also rated 155 last year, but I believe those were the only two horses rated over 151 since the race was instituted.

What rating should Tell Massini have? Last time out he didn't look that impressive but beat Kennel Hill (now rated 140) by 2 1/2l giving him 7lb, Mon Mome (now rated 134) by 10 1/2l giving him 7lb, Lord Generous (now rated 135) 13 3/4l giving him 3lb and Bygones Of Brid (now rated 136) by 16 3/4l at levels; for information only (!!) The Minack (now rated 141) was beaten 17 1/2l and getting 3lb. The handicapper allotted Tell Massini a rating of 145 based on that but has now revised it upwards to 153.

I know it's easy to crab the form, or suggest that the ratings given to the others are too high based on the race being overrated, but a look through the form book will show that Mon Mome was actually dropped by the assessor after this, while Kennel Hill got his lofty rating for his excellent Challow Hurdle run (before he went totally doggy!), Lord Generous was raised for his defeat of Chamirey which has been franked twice since and Bygones Of Brid has been raised for beating Washington Irving (and proved that no fluke with a decent second to Ranjobaie subsequently). I'm more than happy to ignore the Minack!

The point is that this really really is rock solid form in the context of the Albert Bartlett and the 4/1 is a reasonable price which will contract further unless we get a protracted dry spell. Far be it from me to tell you guys what you should be laying, but if you must take him on, wait until he's trading at 2/1!!

I'd much rather be laying something which has looked flashy while beating trees, and there will be a few of those in two weeks.
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Kauto Star... much to short for a horse that's booked for runner-up spot.

...And although I've backed both Dunguib and Big Bucks at 7/4, they are now ones not to back against rather than back. Although I'll be looking for books without the favourite now in the Supreme Novices and World Hurdles and a bit of place betting on the day perhaps.
 
I'm don't really do Novice Hurdles so i'm not taking Dunguib on but I think any horse at odds-on should be opposed at the Festival. Karabak has been available at 10 on Betfair the last day or so and that is too big. I've also backed him in the market without the favourite at 4.3. His form has a stronger look to it than Tidal Bay's.
 
SteveM said:
Kauto Star... much to short for a horse that's booked for runner-up spot.
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poorhouse.gif


I'll see you there...
 
Simon said:
poorhouse.gif


I'll see you there...
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:p The only unfortunates going to the poor house will be those backing Kauto at available prices. Denman has one horse to beat and I've got him as big as 9/1. If you don't go for this sort of value you shouldn't be allowed out.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm don't really do Novice Hurdles so i'm not taking Dunguib on but I think any horse at odds-on should be opposed at the Festival...QUOTE]

You're right that it's too late to back Dunguib, but I'd suggest you take up the Paddy Power offer of money back on all other win singles if Dunguib wins. I've backed up my 7/4 against on Dunguib with PP bets on Get Me Out Of Here and Oscar Whisky (both 10/1).
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Euronymous said:
I'm don't really do Novice Hurdles so i'm not taking Dunguib on but I think any horse at odds-on should be opposed at the Festival. Karabak has been available at 10 on Betfair the last day or so and that is too big. I've also backed him in the market without the favourite at 4.3. His form has a stronger look to it than Tidal Bay's.
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Nice bet Euro:cool:
 
rorydelargy said:
Just to go back to Tell Massini (oops!), and apologies for labouring a point. He isn't particularly flashy and he isn't the best novice in training, but anyone who wants to oppose him at 4/1 needs to be aware of how good his form is in black and white .
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Not sure he has the best form in this race - and ground surely a massive worry now?
 
tdk said:
Not sure he has the best form in this race - and ground surely a massive worry now?
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The ground may be a big worry, but there's no evidence that he won't handle good ground for all that he's been kept to softer - it's not like he has a particularly exaggerated action. His form was arguably franked by Bygones Of Brid at the weekend, although I'm aware that that one didn't truly stay when they met.
 
At the risk of being slaughtered..I would be against Long Run. His jumping at Kempton especially, was sketchy enough. Downhill fence at Cheltenham may not be to his liking..just a thought:whistle:
 
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