Our Connor

My provisional thoughts:

The first figure is my rating going into the race, followed by the rating for the race. Far West ran a wee bit like Hurricane Fly, looking well beaten about halfway but staying on dourly up the straight. Some posters thought Diakali would improve on his previous meeting with Our Conor and these ratings suggest he's done that. Rolling Star has obviously underperformed. My gut, though, says these are maybe about 5lbs too high. It still makes Our Conor possibly the best winner of the race in my 30-odd years of rating.

Triumph 1.30 (11-0)
Our Conor 148+p / 168
Far West 147+ / 152
Diakali 142 / 145
Vasco Du Ronceray 140+ / 145
Rolling Star 149o p / 144

I’ve gone high with the ratings for the time being. They do look too high for a Triumph Hurdle as Far West, beaten 15 lengths, comes out with a rating upsides some good winners. The time of the race supports the high ratings, the winner emerging no less than 34lbs faster than the impressive winner of the County Hurdle, Ted Veale. The rain must have got into the ground because the County looked true-run and four of the first five came from the rear.

 
Desert Orchid said:
My provisional thoughts:

The first figure is my rating going into the race, followed by the rating for the race. Far West ran a wee bit like Hurricane Fly, looking well beaten about halfway but staying on dourly up the straight. Some posters thought Diakali would improve on his previous meeting with Our Conor and these ratings suggest he's done that. Rolling Star has obviously underperformed. My gut, though, says these are maybe about 5lbs too high. It still makes Our Conor possibly the best winner of the race in my 30-odd years of rating.

Triumph 1.30 (11-0)
Our Conor 148+p / 168
Far West 147+ / 152
Diakali 142 / 145
Vasco Du Ronceray 140+ / 145
Rolling Star 149o p / 144

I’ve gone high with the ratings for the time being. They do look too high for a Triumph Hurdle as Far West, beaten 15 lengths, comes out with a rating upsides some good winners. The time of the race supports the high ratings, the winner emerging no less than 34lbs faster than the impressive winner of the County Hurdle, Ted Veale. The rain must have got into the ground because the County looked true-run and four of the first five came from the rear.
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i had a clumsy go at trying to calculate a speed figure for OC using a deteriorating going allowance throughout the afternoon..my speed figure was 171..not a million from what you get.

The ground was slower in the County but not to a massive degree..i think between 1 o'clock and 3.30 the ground had slowed by 0.4 secs per furlong..most of the worst rain started at the triumph..so using the previous day's allowance as a starting point does give a guide to where the ground was at different stages during the afternoon..i did say rough;)

i'll have a look at that afternoon at some point and time them properly..the official timings are out as per usual..after ground speed removal...i got that OC beat the county by 3.3 seconds..but thats using the official overall times to start with

i think its entirely possible he is another Golden Cygnet..he is one of the most exciting prospects i've seen..i think:)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
My provisional thoughts:

The first figure is my rating going into the race, followed by the rating for the race. Far West ran a wee bit like Hurricane Fly, looking well beaten about halfway but staying on dourly up the straight. Some posters thought Diakali would improve on his previous meeting with Our Conor and these ratings suggest he's done that. Rolling Star has obviously underperformed. My gut, though, says these are maybe about 5lbs too high. It still makes Our Conor possibly the best winner of the race in my 30-odd years of rating.

Triumph 1.30 (11-0)
Our Conor 148+p / 168
Far West 147+ / 152
Diakali 142 / 145
Vasco Du Ronceray 140+ / 145
Rolling Star 149o p / 144

I’ve gone high with the ratings for the time being. They do look too high for a Triumph Hurdle as Far West, beaten 15 lengths, comes out with a rating upsides some good winners. The time of the race supports the high ratings, the winner emerging no less than 34lbs faster than the impressive winner of the County Hurdle, Ted Veale. The rain must have got into the ground because the County looked true-run and four of the first five came from the rear.

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I had Sametegal at 146 going into that race, which was why I was so keen to see him in the Fred Winter and backed him accordingly. I also had Far West at 150 which I think I sent you a pm a few weeks ago. Both those ran almost to the lb imo - so 168 - 171 wouldn't be far off.
 
swedish chef said:
I had Sametegal at 146 going into that race, which was why I was so keen to see him in the Fred Winter and backed him accordingly. I also had Far West at 150 which I think I sent you a pm a few weeks ago. Both those ran almost to the lb imo - so 168 - 171 wouldn't be far off.
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It was through simple oversight that I omitted Sametegal from my list (he wasn't within a stone of the top ratings beforehand so didn't make the short list, from which I compiled the post-race list. He emerges on 150, which would maybe be another reason for bringing the form down a bit but he might just have been suited by the way the race was run. On the other hand, Far West and Vasco Du Ronceray have run their C&D December trial form to the ounce.
 
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Euronymous said:
What about Far West going chasing? He has the physique and was poor at one or two of the hurdles.
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I don't think that was Far West's true running and I imagine PN will be keen to find out before going the chasing route by running him in one of the early trials

This 162 rating for Our Conor may be fully deserved but give Far West a stone? Love to see him try.
 
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Tanlic said:
I don't think that was Far West's true running and I imagine PN will be keen to find out before going the chasing route by running him in one of the early trials

This 162 rating for Our Conor may be fully deserved but give Far West a stone? Love to see him try.
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he already give him a stone beating..added to the fact that OC hit the line under about as much pressure as you see SS under at the line..FW was all out behind him

how could OC fail to give 14lb and a beating to FW...do you mean a second time?
 
When he's done it 8 times you have my permission to mention him in the same breath as the great one until that keep the comparison's real :p

You offer the lads on the forum evens and a 14 length start when they 2 meet next time I might consider taking you seriously.

The defeat hasn't dented PN's faith in the horse one bit and he still sees him as a Champion Hurdle contender next season.

Al Ferof btw kicked Sprinter Sacre's ass in the Supreme and was going to do the same over fences I seem to remember.

Novice races are famous for being misleading at Cheltenham so don't be counting you chickens
 
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Far West a Champion hurdle contender?
he has to prove before he is as good hurdler as Edgardo Sol and then you can start thinking about the Champion Hurdle
 
Edgardo sol?

Far West finished his novice season rated 11lbs higher than Edgardo Sol in his.

I won't comment on your other post above other than to say thanks for letting me know
 
Desert Orchid said:
It was through simple oversight that I omitted Sametegal from my list (he wasn't within a stone of the top ratings beforehand so didn't make the short list, from which I compiled the post-race list. He emerges on 150, which would maybe be another reason for bringing the form down a bit but he might just have been suited by the way the race was run. On the other hand, Far West and Vasco Du Ronceray have run their C&D December trial form to the ounce.
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You could say the same about Sametegal and Vasco Du Ronceray's December Doncaster Grade 2 Juvenile form - Sam bt VDR 2 1/4L giving him 3lb and finished 5L in front in the Triumph. Form to the ounce imo.
 
Tanlic said:
Al Ferof btw kicked Sprinter Sacre's ass in the Supreme and was going to do the same over fences I seem to remember.

Novice races are famous for being misleading at Cheltenham so don't be counting you chickens
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Right from the off on here it was the concensus that the horse to take out of that Supreme for the Arkle was Sprinter Sacre.
 
swedish chef said:
You could say the same about Sametegal and Vasco Du Ronceray's December Doncaster Grade 2 Juvenile form - Sam bt VDR 2 1/4L giving him 3lb and finished 5L in front in the Triumph. Form to the ounce imo.
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Yes, I wondered whether to take that form at face value (and didn't) at the time. I might go back and revisit it. It all makes the form of the Triumph incredibly solid, doesn't it?
 
Tanlic said:
When he's done it 8 times you have my permission to mention him in the same breath as the great one until that keep the comparison's real :p

You offer the lads on the forum evens and a 14 length start when they 2 meet next time I might consider taking you seriously.

The defeat hasn't dented PN's faith in the horse one bit and he still sees him as a Champion Hurdle contender next season.

Al Ferof btw kicked Sprinter Sacre's ass in the Supreme and was going to do the same over fences I seem to remember.

Novice races are famous for being misleading at Cheltenham so don't be counting you chickens
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Counting your chickens? Wasn't that precisely what you were doing in respect of Far West prior to him being tonked in the Triumph.
 
Euronymous said:
Right from the off on here it was the concensus that the horse to take out of that Supreme for the Arkle was Sprinter Sacre.
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I don't doubt that but I had some real ding dong battles on TRF with those who said he wouldn't get up the hill and that Al Ferof was different class.

If memory serves me well the national opinion was Peddlars Cross was a good thing and the main danger was Al Ferof. That's certainly the way the bookies saw it offering 10/1 about SS.

tbh the way Sprinter Sacre cruised away from Al Ferof after the 2nd last in the Supreme I never doubted for a second who would make the better chaser but did I think he'd become what he is? Never in a thousand years.

I think it is clues like we saw that day in the Supreme that are better guide to what a horse may become than the sort of performance we saw Our Conor put up.

When a young horse put's up a performance like that he's either the next coming or he's simply more mature than the others and very often that sort don't improve as much as you would expect.

Alan King had those exact fears about Katchit. He was awesome as a 4 year old winning 7 times and he actually finished 16 lengths in front of Punjabi in his Triumph win when he won by 9 long lengths.

Alan King pulled of one of the best training feats of his life by letting the horse down after his first win the following season and training him for one race. because he knew the horse didn't have another full season of peak performances in him.

Not for one minute am I saying Our Conor won't train on but I'll be surprised if he can repeat what he did in the Triumph against the likes of Far West who PN and Ruby think an awful lot of.

I'd expect him to still get the upper hand but give him a stone or beat him by 15 lengths again? Unless PN is totally nuts and way off the mark with Far West that's comic book stuff and if he could he'd be 1/3 fav for next years Champion Hurdle and win the next 5 standing on his head.......would be great if he could but too many 4 year olds are babies and the form has a habit of being misleading in the long term......as we saw with Katchit and Punjabi when the latter turned the tables on Katchit in the 2009 Champion hurdle to the tune of 20 + lengths.
 
treetangle said:
Counting your chickens? Wasn't that precisely what you were doing in respect of Far West prior to him being tonked in the Triumph.
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Good contribution to the debate Treetangle..stirring stuff old bean.......have you heard of TRF they say it's lovely at this time of year. Just go to google and search for Trolls Racing Forum you're sure to find it :lol:
 
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