Our New Prime Minster

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Any thoughts on Gordon Brown or who may be in his new cabinet. Will his new broom sweep clean?

I have to admit that although I don't particularly like Tony Blair, given who his replacement is, I would rather have him in charge than Brown - neither would be ideal. :D

Tony got a good send off in parliament today and David Cameron did the right thing by wishing him and his family well in the future and they all (after some encouragement) gave Tony a standing ovation.
 
I would just like to see a return to politics with principles. Unfortunately recent history appears to show that this kind of politician will ever be elected (as PM). I guess it is much easier to rubbish someone elses policy than come up with one of your own.

Best get on Cameron to win the next election then.
 
Had some this morning at Betdirect. I can't see the public wanting another 5 years of Blair (in the guise of Cameron) and will appreciate a politician who will still be a breath of fresh air to most.
 
Around 4th June 2009 - though I'm not betting on that! My most profitable betting over the last twenty years, both fixed odds and spreads, has been on election results - the trouble is that they don't come along that often. As with any form of betting it is important that you ignore what you might want to happen in favour of getting the odds on your side. This morning I had a four figure sum on Labour winning the most seats at the next election, whenever it may be, with Coral at 6/5. This is the best price available (obviously!) and it is also on offer from three internet firms but as I have a credit account with Coral I don't need to put the cash upfront. If Coral should shorten their price Ladbrokes go 11/10.

This is my reasoning:

(1) The geography of constituencies is in Labour's favour. They have a tremendous advantage in that if both parties were to get an equal share of the vote Labour would gain more seats than the Conservatives.

(2) By the time of the next election Gordon Brown will have greatly reduced the number of troops in Iraq (maybe even to zero) and the war there will cease to a large extent to be an issue damaging Labour.

(3) The Lib-Dems at present are no great threat to the Conservative vote but if they change their leader, which I think most likely before the next election, they will again make inroads in to the Conservative vote.

(4) The one thing that will be uppermost in Gordon Brown's mind will be winning the next election. As do all prime ministers he will manipulate the political agenda to that end.

(5) All the evidence shows that Tony Blair, highly popular when he came to power in 1997, was very unpopular towards the end of his tenure and the electorate may well be pleased to have a leader who is very different in style. Equally, David Cameron is likely to suffer from the "Blair clone" accusation.

(6) It's only around even money that Europe, the poison pill of the Conservative party, will yet again cause rifts damaging anough to jeopardise their vote.

One thing's for sure, our general elections are two-horse races and 6/5 is a sound bet for value. One opinion poll last weekend showed that Labour had recovered from their drop in appeal and were again two points ahead of the Conservatives. I am pretty certain that the Brown factor will give them a further boost when the results of this weekend's polls are published. Those who like to trade will surely be able to get out of any bet on Labour at a profit at some stage between now and election time but, barring a major upheaval - and as Harold said "A week is a long time in politics" - I'm in for the long term and recommend that you all do the same.
 
A very interesting post as usual on this matter Brian.

The only point I am not sure about is (3). Would a new Lib Dem leader not be more likely to reverse the party's policy of movement to the right and return them to their usual position of left of Labour? If this is the case then I would have thought that Labour were equally as vulnerable as the Tories?
 
I agree with your reasoning, but there are arguments on the other side as well, the principal one being that the economic cycle in the UK may be on a downward turn.

Another is that Brown has too much of the head prefect about him - yesterday he quoted his old school motto outside no. 10, forgodsake.

Finally, while Europe might be a pimple on David Cameron's shiny face, Scotland might turn into a hairy wart on the tip of Mr Brown's nose.

In a manner of speaking. :what:
 
Originally posted by Grey@Jun 28 2007, 07:01 PM
Another is that Brown has too much of the head prefect about him - yesterday he quoted his old school motto outside no. 10, forgodsake.
Click to expand...
Do you think that the electorate would prefer the motto of "Call Me Dave" Cameron's old school? It's Floreat Etona- which translates as "Let Eton Flourish".
 
My school motto, which I haven't ever felt the need to quote before, was Per Vias Rectas.

Despite what some of you may think, it had nothing to do with back passages.
 
Mine was spartum nactus es hanc exorna (you are in Sparta. Do it proud) No superiority complex there then...
 
Just looked it up

"Quis ut Deus"
"Who is like unto God"

As a non latin speaker, I reckon it makes more sense in latin.
 
My old school motto was "Courage Through Faith" though it was changed to that from Latin (tried the exact translation and I'm sure it wasn't that). Couldn't tell from that motto it was an ex-Christian Brothers school
 
I found myself making a case for October 9th or 16th 2008 tonight. Reasons?

1: The clues to Browns intention were in last years budget. He's put in a tax cut for middle income earners which is due to come in to effect in April 2008. A 6 month appreciation perid takes us into October

2: Darling will have to give his budget (yeah like who believes that) in a timeframe that allows Brown another give away in November

3: Bush will be completely lame duck by October, and the mood in America is for a Democrat which will allow Brown to cash in to some extent on this expectation

4: Going on form point three, he will be in a position to start withdrawing from Iraq (I don't think he will in Afghanistan) in the Spring/ Summer of 2008 without risking upseting a largely redundant US administration. Indeed it makes sense to do so, as we don't want to be the last out of there, and there's every chance that any of the Democrat candidates (Hilary excepted) will start the process themselves and thus drag us along, which means the expedient thing to do would be to get in first

5: The economic cycle is due for a down turn, things won't be as good in 2009 as they will in 2008

6: There will be pressure on him to seek a mandate and this could force his hand a bit to go early

If he doesn't go in the Autumn of 2008 thenh I'm not a million miles away from Brian's thinking but believe May is the more likely month, and again probably at the start of the month as has been Labour's way. To some extent we'll hav emoved to the American fixed term position by proxy. The stats call would be the first week in May 2009, which seems to have been when UK elections take place. I tend to think that Labour will also have th emost seats for all the reasons that Brian mentions.

On a personal level I hope it is 2009, as I don't need a general election dovetailing with a local in 2008, I've got too much invested in the latter norty
 
May/June 2009 sounds good to me from the war perspective - betting on a "bring 'em home" Democrat taking power in the January and giving them over three months to get the withdrawal underway.
 
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