Paddy Power Gold Cup

I didn't know we were talking about all Pipe horses - you should have saved that post for the relevant thread.

I was just simply saying Du Lac is well backed.
 
Siruh Du Lac was the first to catch my attention and that was because I love that prominent style of racing here and the Pipe record in this race. But that was his dad and 15-20 years ago and despite a winner many years ago David has struggled in this, albeit some placed horses.

When I backed Sky Pirate it was as second choice as I don’t trust him although don’t doubt his ability and I’ve been looking for a main bet and while I want to back Spiritofthegames I can’t back two dodgepots in the same race.

All the horses at the head of the market have fair chances but all have question marks and are short enough. Happy Diva rarely runs a bad race, especially here and wont mind rain so despite her lofty rating she seems the one most likely to run her race.

A lot made of the way Slate House was travelling last year but the mare was travelling equally as well.
 
wilsonl said:
All the horses at the head of the market have fair chances but all have question marks and are short enough.
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That's pretty much my take on it, and probably a lot of other peoples as well.

Althought I do think market support for Du Lac is interesting.
 
Siruh Du Lac was also trained by Nick Williams when in his winning prime. Chances of Pipe Junior getting this one to run to a mark of 150 are a lot longer than 9/1, for my money.
 
The horse is 6/10 over fences.

After all, there's no black magic involved, if the horse is good enough David Pipe will get him to run to form (sooner or later), surely?
 
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The horse wasn’t good enough off 150 the last twice. Certain drifter tomorrow...will go off about 14/1, as others less exposed or better handicapped get backed. Amazed there’s been any money for it myself.
 
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I'm looking forward to it. It's a trappy little race imho, and at more than double the price of the favorites, he makes some appeal.

I'm sure you'll be the first to wish his backers well if he wins, as we'll all be doing if Simply The Betts hoses up. :)

14/1 my arse..
 
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I took 50/1 Kauto Riko earlier in the week after doing some figures. Back in December he split Top Notch and La Bague Au Roi in the Peterborough on unfavourable terms. The 152-rated Born Survivor wasn’t far away in fourth and if you take Kauto Riko out of the equation the rest of the form makes sense. Excuses can be made for a couple of his subsequent runs and a wind op after a moderate run behind Simply The Betts at the festival might explain that disappointment. His run behind Top Notch was his seasonal debut so freshness might be important to him. He went blue during the week but has lengthened again. I might go in again if I can get 40s or 50s to six places with the BOGs.

Aso is lightly enough raced possibly to have more improvement in him and is a nice price too, as is Brelan D’As who is JP’s only runner and Nicholls won a good race on Friday with Magic Saint.

Siruh Du Lac has moved to Pipe and was running a career best when falling at the festival. If he’s improved again he could win and the yard is in form.

Coole Cody is a bit older than ideal but appears to have improved for the switch to Williams.

It’s easy to make cases for the market leaders but it’s just as easy to find reasons why they might not be value.

I plan to spread my butter thinly on Aso, Coole Cody, Brelan D’As and Siruh Du Lac at the best terms on offer in the morning and hope for a net profit.

But they might just be toast.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Siruh Du Lac was also trained by Nick Williams when in his winning prime. Chances of Pipe Junior getting this one to run to a mark of 150 are a lot longer than 9/1, for my money.
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Totally agree...He came under pressure at the top of the hill before he fell, the handicapper hasn't budged him...Now Pipe may be able to eke out a few extra pounds of improvement, but not enough to bridge the gap with STB's in receipt of the additional 5Lb's....I think this horse's future lies in going up in distance.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I took 50/1 Kauto Riko earlier in the week after doing some figures. Back in December he split Top Notch and La Bague Au Roi in the Peterborough on unfavourable terms. The 152-rated Born Survivor wasn’t far away in fourth and if you take Kauto Riko out of the equation the rest of the form makes sense. Excuses can be made for a couple of his subsequent runs and a wind op after a moderate run behind Simply The Betts at the festival might explain that disappointment. His run behind Top Notch was his seasonal debut so freshness might be important to him. He went blue during the week but has lengthened again.
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Some substance there DO..
 
I feel a real wimp reading all these keenly thought out analyses. I’m just sticking with Slate House for no better reason than he owes me from last year.
 
barjon said:
I feel a real wimp reading all these keenly thought out analyses. I’m just sticking with Slate House for no better reason than he owes me from last year.
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Probably as good a reason as any but I discovered many years ago that one against the field in a race of this nature can wear down your teeth very quickly.

I probably go to the other end of the scale and back more than I should but I try to justify that in terms of eking out little bits of value and taking the Hippocratic approach and dong myself as little harm as possible :confused:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Probably as good a reason as any but I discovered many years ago that one against the field in a race of this nature can wear down your teeth very quickly.
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Aye, that’s why I usually leave such races alone nowadays (and why I’ve got false teeth).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Probably as good a reason as any but I discovered many years ago that one against the field in a race of this nature can wear down your teeth very quickly.

I probably go to the other end of the scale and back more than I should but I try to justify that in terms of eking out little bits of value and taking the Hippocratic approach and dong myself as little harm as possible :confused:
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You only need 1 against the field in this one anyway, Simply The Betts.

On a serious note though, I agree, you can literally mark a case for half the field. I took 50/1 Kauto Riko myself last night as well. If it runs to its mark it did with Top Notch 50/1 is a steal. Runs well fresh as well.

Al Dancers getting absolutely hammered, I can’t have it though. That’s one I’m really happy to take on. In fact 50/1 shot Kauto Riko will beat it.
 
Don't know if it's a good omen or a harbinger of doom but Oli Bell has just put up Kauto Riko on the morning show.

Either way, I've gone in again at 50s to 6 places. If he finishes sixth he'll cover the longshot pops.
 
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Was hoping Domaine de L'isle would go out further overnight from 40s, but he's largely been clipped in to even 20s in places which is frustrating so I've probably missed the boat there. Will take 40s if it reappears at any point.

Otherwise, I'll be leaving this until before the off to see the extent of the rain as there's a few towards the head of the market who won't want it getting too boggy, particularly Mister Fisher.
 
Marb said:
Does money talk?

Siruh Du Lac is the best backed horse is the race recently.

Also nibbles for Sky Pirate.
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Al Dancer tiptoeing to the top of the Market...


Could be a Two-Step, Quick-Step and a Bossanova.
A little Victor Sylvester and a Rudy Valentino.
Just watch him moving, right across the course.
If he wins, it'll be, ham and turkey, there'll be caviar,
and long tall glasses with Champagne up to y'are.
Just watch him moving, right across the course.
You know Al can dance.....You know Al can dance.....
You know Al can dance.....You know Al can dance.....
 
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I'm having one more swing at Slate House. Pretty sure he would have won it last year if not tipping up two out, the Tizzard’s seem to be turning the corner and the rain won’t harm his chances

Happy Diva is also too big at 16/1 5 places, so she can’t go unbacked
 
Confidence in Mr Fisher being drained by the rain. Added Slate House as a dutch in case it's really soft.

Gotta say I think Sunday's cards here and Punchestown are a lot better from a punting point of view.
 
This threads gone awfully quiet haha.

Hoping all the participants come back safe and sound, that's the main thing.

More money for Sky Pirate would you believe it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I took 50/1 Kauto Riko earlier in the week after doing some figures.
...

Coole Cody is a bit older than ideal but appears to have improved for the switch to Williams.

It’s easy to make cases for the market leaders but it’s just as easy to find reasons why they might not be value.

I plan to spread my butter thinly on Aso, Coole Cody, Brelan D’As and Siruh Du Lac at the best terms on offer in the morning and hope for a net profit.
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Between Coole Cody winning and Kauto Riko placing, it was a good race for me!

If there was disappointment, it was that KR was ridden negatively for the first mile, especially giving the rest an unnecessary start.
 
7 finishers.

Not sure what to make of that form going forward with Mister Fisher and Simply The Betts nowhere to be seen.

Great ride from the front there. Recouped my losses on Simply The Betts with Kauto Riko finishing like a train, luckily no damage done.
 
I thought AL Dancer got racing too early, Twiston and Cobden were taking each other on up to the crest....A more measured confident ride and he would have faired better.


Well done DO, some good analysis there...KR could have won the way he finished
 
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