Paddy Power

dobbin

dobbin

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Oct 19, 2008
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Warwickshire
Never mind the festival that's a while off yet, any thoughts,tips:) on the Paddy Power at Cheltenham?
 
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Noland has had a wind op and always seemed to be crying out for a trip, even as far back as the Supreme Novices when he was outpaced coming down the hill before stamina won the day.
 
Barbers Shop has his own way of thinking over doing things though - he cannot be replied upon and has been known to chuck in the towel.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Barbers Shop has his own way of thinking over doing things though - he cannot be replied upon and has been known to chuck in the towel.
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I must confess I seriously burnt the financial fingers on this horse in his novice hurdling days at Market Rasen and Bangor (odds on both times:mad:).

Since then I have always swerved him as I do think he is a bit of a thinker, and a tad ungenuine.

Strictly on form if you fancy Finger Onthe Pulse you would have to say Barber's Shop will be on the premises, but I couldn't have him at any price - even with Bazza in the plate!
 
Alan King yet to win this race looks like entering three, Ouzbeck winner at the course last weekend, Il Duce who was second last year beaten in a photo by L'Antartique and Pur De Sivola .
 
I was thinking along the same lines with Ouzbeck - he hacked up. Depending on what else is entered and the weight he gets, he could well be interesting.
 
Which is why I said in the first place (and subsequently!) that I wouldn't want to make any selections until I knew what the entries were!

Mind you, the Pipe yard can't buy a winner at the moment.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I was thinking along the same lines with Ouzbeck - he hacked up. Depending on what else is entered and the weight he gets, he could well be interesting.
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I've been keeping an eye out for him since his first chase run during the summer. Liked what I saw the other day, in the paddock and on the course.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Which is why I said in the first place (and subsequently!) that I wouldn't want to make any selections until I knew what the entries were!

Mind you, the Pipe yard can't buy a winner at the moment.
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I think to be fair though he hasn't been running his top notchers and on the RP "Current Form" page the shortest priced horse he has sent out was 11/4 and the shortest favourite was 9/2 joint - so it would be a little unwise to conclude the yard is out of form at present.

Pond House has traditionally hit hard at the Paddy Power meeting anyway with the showcase event a Pipe benefit in years gone by.
 
You jest, surely? Of course they're out of form - they're woefully out of form, it's been 24 days and 46 runners since their last sniff of a winner!

The Pipe yard has never been one to wait for their 'top notchers' - that's the whole point - they have always tended to make up their winners at the every day meetings rather than not get winners until their "top notchers" come out.
 
Yes but if you look at the odds of the horses they have been running they are not the sorts of SPs you would normally associate with a well fancied Pond House inmate. Of the 22 losers listed on the RP site, 15 were double figure odds, and 10 were 20/1 or longer - these horses were hardly "expected". Moreover horses such as Indian Pipe Dream, The Package and Prince De Bersy ran perfectly respectable races in 3rd at shorter odds, whilst Leo's Lucky Star ran right up to form (also in 3rd) at odds of 20/1 at Cheltenham.

Until he unleashes his better class horses, and horses who are well fancied by the yard, it would be completely misleading imo to describe the yard as being out of form.
 
Fair enough, each to their own. However I won't be letting the current stats inform my wagers at Cheltenham in 2 weeks time. It is interesting that this weekend when you have a whole host of mouth watering jumping action Pipe has just the 8 entries. Paul Nicholls for instance has 26, so that seems to indicate Pond House are not in full swing yet - now that maybe that the horses are unwell (whcih would concur with your theory), although it may simply suggest they are waiting for the Paddy Power meeting to strike - and lets face it, this would not be the first season the Pipe yard has not got into full swing until mid-November at Prestbury Park.

Time well tell.
 
I often think one of the better indicators of stable form/ fitness is the percentage of PU's and Pipe doesn't seem too bad on that score. Having said that, the current sequence is still well down on where you'd expect it to be, which points to something being amiss, be it fitness or campaign prep.

If the campaign structure has changed, then it must be a recent development, as historically October hasn't been a graveyard for them, and they won plenty in September this year too whihc wouldn't necessarily be indicative of a gradual build up to a peak

2008 - 0 from 43
2007 - 4 from 52 (8%)
2006 - 9 from 40 (22%)
2005 - 9 from 59 (15%)*
2004 - 13 from 80 (16%)*
2003 - 11 from 54 (20%)*

* = MC Pipe
 
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numbersix said:
Until he unleashes his better class horses, and horses who are well fancied by the yard, it would be completely misleading imo to describe the yard as being out of form.
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People seem to be forgetting that Martin Pipe isn't training these horses, David is, and he is responsible for their programmes. He already demonstrated last year that he has different methods and priorities from his father, and will be aiming more at the quality races and big pots than getting the Championship every year, which his dad liked to do. He campaigns his horses very differently

If you are going to make comparisons, the only year to do it with is last year imo!
 
Headstrong said:
People seem to be forgetting that Martin Pipe isn't training these horses, David is, and he is responsible for their programmes. He already demonstrated last year that he has different methods and priorities from his father, and will be aiming more at the quality races and big pots than getting the Championship every year, which his dad liked to do. He campaigns his horses very differently

If you are going to make comparisons, the only year to do it with is last year imo!
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Piece on ATR last week when David admitting to doing things his own way and the difference in approach between him and his dad
 
There is no doubt that David does things differently to his father and favours quality over quantity - however that does not get away fro the fact that it is rare that the Pipe yard goes o long without a winner, which also shows that the yard is out of form.

David has been training one winner every month so far since he took out the licence (if the RP are to be believed!!!!) yet is close to breaking that now.
 
Silverburn identified by Paul Nicholls as his number one hope for next month's Paddy Power Gold Cup, has been installed 7-2 favourite with the sponsors after the entriesfor the first showpiece of the jumps season were revealed.

The Grade 1-winning Silverburn is one of 56 entries for the Paddy Power, for which Nicholls also has among his entries Noland, on Wednesday morning installed 8-1 joint-favourite with Nicky Henderson's Jack The Giant.

Jewson Chase winner Finger Onthe Pulse is the shortest-priced Irish contender at 10-1, while Ashley Brook and Monet's Garden likely to figure towards the top of the handicap when the weights are unveiled next Wednesday.

Paddy Power Gold Cup

7-2 Silverburn, 8 Jack The Giant,Noland, 10 Don't Push It, Finger Onthe Pulse, Imperial Commander, 12 Piraya, Barbers Shop, Mahogany Blaze, 14 Maljimar, Oslot, Abragante, 16 Sky's The Limit, Scotsirish, Vodka Bleu, I'm So Lucky, Bible Lord, Turko, Ouzbeck, 20 Roll Along, Moon Over Miami, Three Mirrors, Private Be, Patman Du Charmil, Il Duce, Fleet Street, Snoopy Loopy, Nozic, Tramantano, 25 Ashley Brook, Pur de Sivola, Predateur, Mister McGoldrick, Santa's Son, The Wicketkeeper, Possol, Acambo, 33 Howle Hill, Mister Quasimodo, Monet's Garden, Lord Henry, Oceaonos des Obeaux, Ruairi, 40 Stan, Billyvoddan, 50 Endless Power, Bill's Echo, Watson Lake, Yes Sir, Newman Des Plages, Boomshakalaka, Reisk Superman, Pauillac, 66 Merry Cowboy, Nation State, Sir Bathwick.
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