Paddy Power

Pur de Sivola looks a well handicapped horse off 138, and with Alan King also having Ouzbeck for the race, PdS looks certain to get a handy weight if he takes his chance.
 
Silverburn 7/2 favourite??? Madness - another case of PP jumping on the Nicholls bandwagon, if it were trained by anyone else it would be a 12/1+ shot.
 
Bible Lord 16/1 = deffo profit, would have won the showcase if he didn't blow up and he can score in this. I rate Silverburn but I can't have at the price.
 
An interesting take on the race chris. Considering Bible Lord was running on steadily at the finish, I can't have it that he was beaten for lack of fitness, and in any case Ouzbeck won comfortably.

I'll grant you that Boble Lord jumped much better than has often been the case, but the presence of Grant remains a worry in a race as competitive as the Paddy Power. I'd give him an EW chance without his regular pilot.
 
davidjohnson said:
An interesting take on the race chris. Considering Bible Lord was running on steadily at the finish, I can't have it that he was beaten for lack of fitness, and in any case Ouzbeck won comfortably.

I'll grant you that Boble Lord jumped much better than has often been the case, but the presence of Grant remains a worry in a race as competitive as the Paddy Power. I'd give him an EW chance without his regular pilot.
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I'd be inclined to agree with that (I backed Bible Lord, and thought that a slight mistake at the top of the hill cost him some momentum but otherwise he ran on strongly enough to suggest he was as fit as anything in the field) but I'm impressed with the way Turnell's horses have carried their form over from last season and Grant can only improve for riding good horses, much as I have criticised him in the past. Cue a slating from Shadow Leader!
 
All I know is Andy, said he blew up, horses can run on or give the impression they are running on even if they have blown up. The key is to actually pick a marker and time the winner and the horse, sometimes its actually ones in front stopping rather than others closing.

He is expected to win the Paddy Power and Andy thinks his horses are flying, they had a good winner on Sunday which was confidently backed.
 
chrisbeekracing said:
He is expected to win the Paddy Power and Andy thinks his horses are flying, they had a good winner on Sunday which was confidently backed.
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Massive bugbear of mine, and no offence intended to Chris but the most offensive comment in racing is "Expected To Win". It's all very well saying it of a 6/4 shot on the morning of the race, but to say that you expect a horse conservatively priced at 16/1 to win a hugely competitive handicap a fortnight before the race is folly in the extreme. I put it to you that those words have never passed Andy Turnell's lips but have been twisted by what I shall now term "tipsterspeak". :D
 
I will rephrase;

The horse has improved for his first run when connections feel he was lacking 100% fitness, he has been aimed at this race and they are quietly confident of a good showing and all being well should go very close.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Sorry #6 but I cannot agree with you there - the yard is definitely out of form, they can't buy a winner.
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Pipe just won the novice hurdle at Uttoxeter with Great Endeavour following up his Southwell success. I would class this horse a cut above anything Pipe has run over that past month or so, and this would seem to suggest the yard has simply been running bad horses not "out of form" as such which was my suspicion. He best a 5/4 shot of Hobbs' in a driving finish so I dare say if there was anything wrong with the Pond House string Great Endeavour would have been found out in the closing stages.

Roll on Cheltenham!
 
My 2 against the field would be Maljimar and Ouzbeck. 12/1 about both looks fair and I'll be watching the market over the next few days with the intention of backing both if they are committed to the race.
I don't like Bible Lord-has promised a lot and delivered little IMO. I too would be against Barber Shop. Jack the Giant might not have much in hand of his mark now. Silverburn looks too short to me. Fingeronthepulse would be an interesting runner but us Paddies haven't cut the mustard in this race lately...
 
#6, I hate to point it out to you, but at some point any yard that is out of form is going to have to come back into form sooner or later - something has to bethat first winner after a lean spell!
 
After his stunning run of success through last season, if Paul Nicholls trained a chicken to run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, it would probably head the betting. Luckily, he’s gone the more conventional route with Silverburn seen as his most likely chance of landing the first National Hunt classic of the season. The Champion Trainer has already mapped out a season long course for the 7 year old with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the start of a journey that ends with the Ryanair Chase as its intended destination - or knowing the sponsors, somewhere close to the Ryanair Chase that will require a bus transfer.


“Silverburn looks like being my No.1 hope for the Paddy Power Gold Cup,” Nicholls told the Racing Post, not beating around the bush. Understandably backing up the view of a trainer that clearly knows a thing or two about winning big prizes, Silverburn’s owner, Paul Green revealed “I understand Paul has made one or two glowing reports about the horse. I know he likes the handicap mark as he told me that a while ago.”

Based on the evidence of last season and the positive noises emanating from Ditcheat, we were about to close the case on this one, until we realised Cheltenham specialist, Nicky Henderson is planning to saddle Jack The Giant for the race. Jack has got the better of Twist Magic in the past and has a Cheltenham win to his name, giving him some genuine credentials to get the better of Silverburn. Henderson hasn’t thrown in the towel just yet saying “He’s got to start somewhere and the Paddy Power might well suit.” The Queen could make an appearance in the winner’s circle if Barber Shop atones for a narrow defeat to Finger Onthe Pulse at this year’s Festival. Getting her hands on the Paddy Power Gold Cup would probably rank just below Canada and just above Tuvalu on the list of the Queen’s possessions. Henderson is bullish about Barber Shop’s chances saying “He ran very well at Cheltenham in the Jewson last season and again the Paddy Power is a possibility.”

Having landed the 2006 renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup with Exotic Dancer, the Jonjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy team will doubtless receive their fair share of support from the betting public. Don’t Push It looks to be the partnership’s best hope of success. Nigel Twiston Davies has his stable in top form these days as illustrated by Knowhere’s victory in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on Sunday. The same horse finished a gallant third in last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and with Imperial Commander likely to represent the yard in this year’s renewal, he can’t be written off. “A brilliant jumper,” is how Twiston described an unwanted Christmas present or else Mahogany Blaze, another lively contender for the race.

Paddy Power Gold Cup, Saturday 15th November 2.35pm
 
dobbin said:
After his stunning run of success through last season, if Paul Nicholls trained a chicken to run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, it would probably head the betting. Luckily, he’s gone the more conventional route with Silverburn seen as his most likely chance of landing the first National Hunt classic of the season. The Champion Trainer has already mapped out a season long course for the 7 year old with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the start of a journey that ends with the Ryanair Chase as its intended destination - or knowing the sponsors, somewhere close to the Ryanair Chase that will require a bus transfer.


“Silverburn looks like being my No.1 hope for the Paddy Power Gold Cup,” Nicholls told the Racing Post, not beating around the bush. Understandably backing up the view of a trainer that clearly knows a thing or two about winning big prizes, Silverburn’s owner, Paul Green revealed “I understand Paul has made one or two glowing reports about the horse. I know he likes the handicap mark as he told me that a while ago.”

Based on the evidence of last season and the positive noises emanating from Ditcheat, we were about to close the case on this one, until we realised Cheltenham specialist, Nicky Henderson is planning to saddle Jack The Giant for the race. Jack has got the better of Twist Magic in the past and has a Cheltenham win to his name, giving him some genuine credentials to get the better of Silverburn. Henderson hasn’t thrown in the towel just yet saying “He’s got to start somewhere and the Paddy Power might well suit.” The Queen could make an appearance in the winner’s circle if Barber Shop atones for a narrow defeat to Finger Onthe Pulse at this year’s Festival. Getting her hands on the Paddy Power Gold Cup would probably rank just below Canada and just above Tuvalu on the list of the Queen’s possessions. Henderson is bullish about Barber Shop’s chances saying “He ran very well at Cheltenham in the Jewson last season and again the Paddy Power is a possibility.”

Having landed the 2006 renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup with Exotic Dancer, the Jonjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy team will doubtless receive their fair share of support from the betting public. Don’t Push It looks to be the partnership’s best hope of success. Nigel Twiston Davies has his stable in top form these days as illustrated by Knowhere’s victory in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on Sunday. The same horse finished a gallant third in last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and with Imperial Commander likely to represent the yard in this year’s renewal, he can’t be written off. “A brilliant jumper,” is how Twiston described an unwanted Christmas present or else Mahogany Blaze, another lively contender for the race.

Paddy Power Gold Cup, Saturday 15th November 2.35pm
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Every year Nicholls has a handicap good thing lined up for the Paddy Power. Is anyone here making money punting them?
 
Shadow Leader said:
#6, I hate to point it out to you, but at some point any yard that is out of form is going to have to come back into form sooner or later - something has to bethat first winner after a lean spell!
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Yes, but when I suggested he would have a chance at Cheltenham you dismissed this on the grounds his yard was out of form. I pointed out to you that he had only run his dregs in the period you were monitoring and that as soon as he ran his decent horses we would see whether or not the yard was sick.

Great Endeavour was impressive at Southwell not too long ago, and today showed great resolution upped in class. I don't think there has actually been any evidence to suggest the horses were out of form - if you looked at their SPs most ran as one might have expected. As I predicted as soon as we saw a decent type appear the losing streak came to an end.

Shadow you really do have a problem admitting you were wrong don't you.
 
I doubt it Rory - the "good thing" is generally put in at 5/1 and then they steam in to shorten it up.

People seem to forget the great success that Pond House has had in the race in the past - particularly for horses owned by a Mr D. Johnson. Acambo is the one :)
 
Not at any point did I say the yard had no chance at Cheltenham - Christ alive, they could always come into form inbetween! What I actually said was that the yard was in such bad form at the moment that they couldn't buy a winner [which was correct at the time]. Get a life, would you?
 
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