Past vs Present

Who would Ruby Walsh ride and where would Kauto finish?

  • Total voters
    15
Grasshopper said:
For the record, Ruby takes the ride on Azertyuiop, and another opportunity to watch Geraghty's backside all the way from the Pond Fence to the line.
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Probably right, but we all know that Azertyuiop didn't jump at his best in the 2004 Tingle Creek :D
 
going off topic a little here but say if masterminded got a injury would you aim kauto queen mother ? with denman and neptune going gold cup. i know Nicholls said he will never run kauto under 3 miles anymore but even with masterminded around kauto is still the best 2 miler at this present moment.
 
Galileo said:
I think in his Arkle and in his prep race for the Tingle Creek of top weight he probably did.

Azertyuiop had a rating of 179 on RPR...which for a 2 miler (given the general preference in terms of ratings for stayers) was a exceptional.
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And 179 was his limit. Kauto managed 179 over 2 miles without really trying.

Is there a preference in ratings for stayers?
 
betsmate said:
Probably right, but we all know that Azertyuiop didn't jump at his best in the 2004 Tingle Creek :D
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Supposidly had an excuse in 3 of their 4 meetings!!! At least Moscow actually bloody fell/unseated rather than "needed the run", "should have been ridden handier", "hates Sandown despite nearly hitting the 180 mark there"!!!
 
Gareth Flynn said:
And 179 was his limit. Kauto managed 179 over 2 miles without really trying.

Is there a preference in ratings for stayers?
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Kauto's 179 rating for that Tingle Creek is all wrong. It stems from a ridiculously high OR for Voy Por Ustedes.

IMO anyway.
 
I can toss three heads in a row.

Seriously, I'm happy to concede that Moscow Flyer was the better horse. The evidence is in the formbook and you have to give credit for doing it rather than people saying it could be done.

I'll always have a nagging doubt that Azertyuiop never put up a 100% performance in defeat to Moscow. That is the nature of the game though.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
And 179 was his limit. Kauto managed 179 over 2 miles without really trying.

Is there a preference in ratings for stayers?
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Of course he was trying, if he was not trying hitting 179 he must be a 190 horse...whats more he hit 179 in testing conditions...on a decent surface he would have struggled against Azteryuiop and Moscow over two miles. Nothing against KS...but he is a three miler.
 
Galileo said:
Of course he was trying, if he was not trying hitting 179 he must be a 190 horse...whats more he hit 179 in testing conditions...on a decent surface he would have struggled against Azteryuiop and Moscow over two miles. Nothing against KS...but he is a three miler.
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Azertyuop hit 179 4 times. Never went higher:

"ran on gamely, just failed".
"ridden approaching last, driven out".
"soon ridden, kept on but no impression on winner from the last".
"driven and held on all-out run in".

That's as good as he was. Kauto cruised to the same rating. Didn't have to be ridden out or driven or anything like it. Even if his second Tingle Creek rating is half a stone wrong I'd still back Kauto to beat Azerty over 2m.
 
Grasshopper said:
Kauto's 179 rating for that Tingle Creek is all wrong. It stems from a ridiculously high OR for Voy Por Ustedes.

IMO anyway.
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And Moscow, Azertyuiop and Well Chiefs Tingle Creek rating is arguablely too low.

Azertyuiop came into that Tingle Creek after easily winning off top weight...running to around 180 that day. Well Chief (used by many at the time to devalue the form) then went on to win a handicap off 176 at Cheltenham with some ease from a horse that went on to win the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.

Moscow of course won well with enough in the tank to keep an eye on the crowd to make sure they were cheering loud enough for him.

Preference for stayers? Denman's defeat of a few cripples at Newbury been rated within 3lbs of the greatest 2 mile chase we are likely to see.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
Azertyuop hit 179 4 times. Never went higher:

"ran on gamely, just failed".
"ridden approaching last, driven out".
"soon ridden, kept on but no impression on winner from the last".
"driven and held on all-out run in".

That's as good as he was. Kauto cruised to the same rating. Didn't have to be ridden out or driven or anything like it. Even if his second Tingle Creek rating is half a stone wrong I'd still back Kauto to beat Azerty over 2m.
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If he was ridden out on the day what could he have reached?

Like I said Azertyuiop and co were rated far too low.....while Kauto Star's 2 mile wins have come in testing conditions which hardly genuinely tests the speed for a 2 miler. The only time he raced over 2 miles on a decent surface is when he fell at Cheltenham.
 
""I like to think Kauto Star is every bit as good as Azertyuiop."

That was Paul Nicholls.

In March.

2006.
 
Preference for stayers? Denman's defeat of a few cripples at Newbury been rated within 3lbs of the greatest 2 mile chase we are likely to see.
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I reckon that's got more to do with weight-carrying efforts (something which Azerty benefitted from in his ratings also). Anyway, its not like Denman didn't frank the form...
 
Was that him justifying his decision to mop up the weak 2m division with his stable star in Azertyuiop's absence?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I reckon that's got more to do with weight-carrying efforts (something which Azerty benefitted from in his ratings also). Anyway, its not like Denman didn't frank the form...
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What Denman did in the future had nothing to do with the rating he was given that day....which is kind of the point of ratings? Did Montjeu get given a 134 rating for every run simply because he could achieve it?

No matter how could calculate it...a 178 rating in a 4 runner Gold Cup trial does not sit right and would never be given out to a 2 miler. When you think Master Minded "only" got 187 from the RPR for winning a Queen Mother Champion by 20 lengths!!!
 
For the record, Kauto Star is a better horse than azertyuiop but just not over 2 miles or he certainly did not prove it to me by winning two soft ground Grade 1s that rode more like 2m4f plus races.
 
Sorry Gal, I thought you were talking about the Hennesey. I was away for that Aon Chase so I've never actually seen it.
 
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