Pre-Festival Betting Headspace

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Maruco

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You don't need to read this guys if you don't want to. It's partly a reminder to myself of how my ante post portfolio has worked though and what lessons to take from it. Also as a reminder of what I still need to do. That said there may be one or two things in here that you might consider for your portfolio and strategy in the next few days which is why I chose to post. Also I'm interested to see if your ante post experience this year is similar to mine, or whether I've either got some of it wrong or just had a dose of poor luck. And do you have any strategies you're taking into the Festival that I've not covered and are worth considering? With a few days still to go I'd say it's well worth the discussion.

A month or so ago I was really happy with my portfolio, but with injuries and changes in targets most have crashed and burned. From fourteen multiples I think I'll only end up with two live ones left if Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle. He's the key for me now. I don't remember a season like it. If as I expect now MR goes to the Champion Hurdle I need both multiples left to come in for a profit which is a poor position less than a week from the tapes going up. I'll go back in and add some multiples on Monday when the final decs are out for the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle, and I've see which novices are going where, and most specifically which race Moon Racer turns up in. My guess is I'm far from alone, and very many of you have had your fingers burned with ante post multiples this year?

I usually spend most of the week prior to Festival laying my singles for a guaranteed profit, and take a fresh look using trends and statistics over the weekend. A fresh mind taking away any early season bias towards any particular horses has worked well for me in the past. This year seven bets are already gone. Three are out of the Festival and have gone down, and four others are looking like turning up in alternative races. I've managed to lay two off, but I expect two more will go down unless I get lucky. That's an unusually high number compared to previous Festivals. Is this just me, or have you guys found more bets have gone down than is normally the case? Do any of you guys do the same, and try to clear your mind and take a fresh look irrespective of having previously having been firm on a horse that you may have already backed? Or do you stand firm and trust your early season instincts? I ask this because I can see arguments both ways particularly as early season form is often on ground similar to the Festival itself. It's happened to me a few times where I've laid off and backed something else and then regretted it. I try not to be influenced by all the noise from the pundits but you can't avoid it but I wonder if I am.

I need to have a look at my strategy for next season as there's some lessons to be learned about the timing of my bets, when I lay them back, and if I go back in again later. In the past I've been more disciplined with backing a horse before a trial, laying off for a profit after the trial, and then going back in if its still very much a contender. It's a lot of work and I haven't had the discipline to do it this year. I understand most people are backing early to get an excellent price on the day, but my usual strategy mitigates against injuries and changes in target. In fact given more trainers seem to be following Willie's antics I'm really kicking myself right now.

I'm far from unhappy with most of the prices I have for some of the leading contenders though, and the rest of my book isn't bad at all. I'd be hopeful of a reasonable profit overall, particularly as I have some potentially decent returns on Altior, Yorkhill, Unowhatimeanharry, Yanworth, Defi du Seuil, and Death Duty. They've still got to win though. I'm also pretty happy with my each way horses but may lay one or two off this weekend. This year I'm mostly intending to let my singles ride rather than taking the profit though. It could turn out to be a mistake as I can lock in an overall profit right now and favourites get turned over. Also it means I'm likely to bet more just before and during the Festival than I usually do, which can obviously work for or against me by the end of Friday. Crucially I haven't built up the bank in my accounts that usually pays for four very expensive days and is usually the aim. Essentialy when I'm at the Festival my mentality is no different than any other mug punter and there'll be many bets I make on the day that I wouldn't consider at any other time. It's the build up of the bank though that in my mind makes this acceptable and let's me enjoy the whole thing without worrying about some of the stupid bets I'll make.

I'm pretty happy with my earlier handicap bets, but I'll be adding a few more bets in the handicaps over this weekend. I think I'm okay with intended targets for those that I fancy after plenty of digging around for trainer quotes, and those that I'm less certain of I'll leave until the final decs. When the final decs for each day come out its rare not to already have a better price on most horses in the handicaps, and I'll definitely lay back the win part on some of them in the evening before the race where I have more than one horse. And if I do get this right over the weekend, I'll be less tempted to throw too many mug bets on during the week. Almost every year I look back at my betting activity during the Festival and think what the hell did you do that for! I do still think that my overall approach to betting the handicaps isn't right and I'd be interested to hear the approach some of you guys take.

As a footnote the Champion Chase, the Arkle, and the JLT all have hot favourites with plenty of place value in behind. There's tremendous each way value to be had, but I only want the place part of the bet. I'll be backing each way in each race and laying back the win part of the bet rather than betting in the place market. W/o the favourite aren't usually very generous by comparison. I'll also add an each way treble. In all likelihood the win part of the treble will be dead, but the place part should look very good. And it's worth considering favourites do get beaten. Whilst the win part has never come in for me, the place part tends to be one of those bets that works for me every year so it's worth considering if you haven't/don't.
 
The ante post betting game has changed. One of the biggest, if not the biggest ante post punters in the U.K. no longer plays much at the festival. How can you when Willie can't make him mind up until next Monday? There just isn't the edge there used to be so it's possible what used to work for you, won't work anymore.

What you need to check in your records is whether laying off bets is profitable. To me it seems like a whole lot of work for nothing. If you're singles are good enough you will make 6%/10%. Why not just take that?

I started doing multiples last night on stuff which is obviously going for a certain race and is Top price and looking at Betfair likely to shorten between here and next week e.g Western Ryder 8/1 (Champion Bumper). I'll do a lot of these bets between here and on the day. I think this year that the bookmakers will cool it a bit and we'll see a lot less 1/4 odds 5 places in handicaps and a lot more 1/5 odds 6 places in handicaps and 1/5 odds 4 places in non handicaps provided the books aren't doing their brains after the first two and three days. This will mean treating each day differently depending of the make up of the cards. The time to be working hard is next week, not now and during the year.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
What took him so long to realise that ?
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I believe it was still very profitable up to two years ago. A lot has changed. Horses are priced more conservatively and firms no longer bet the festival 1/4 odds ante post. This diminishes the ante punters a lot.
 
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A couple of years ago I got stuck into the ante post markets and turned up at the festival with half of my bets already gone, either because the horse was out or was going for a different race. I decided starting the week with a deficit is not the way to do things in future. This year I've not had a bet yet but with less than a week to go there are still plenty of races where no one knows yet, connections included, what will be running.
 
How do you guys cope with your restricted accounts, do you just go elsewhere or do bookmakers cut a bit more slack for the Festival ?
 
One strategy tweak this season has been to take a swallow, and back a fancied horse across two races, if the ultimate target is unclear. OK, you are immediately throwing away one bet, however, the early-price will hopefully compensate - especially if the odds contract over time. A working example would be Empire of Dirt, where I have fancy prices for the Gold Cup, but went into the Ryanair market at 12/1, as soon as it was mentioned as the possible target. The follow-up bet in the Ryanair comfortably extracts more than the original stake on the Gold Cup, and vice-verse (though to a much larger degree with the latter), and it's a similar tale with Defi Du Seuil in the Triumph/Supreme markets. For me, it's a more satisfying approach than holding-off until plans are absolutely clear, by which time the prices are gone.

Much the same applies with my multiples, where I crossed Might Bite/Our Duke in the RSA in some early bets. I did the same with Min/Altior and Native River/Empire of Dirt in the Gold Cup.

I strongly suspect that this approach was influenced by the Vautour debacle last year, and despite a few setbacks, I'm in reasonable shape going into the meeting.

The two horses that I'm all-in on one race, are Might Bite (RSA) and Winter's Escape (County). I'm on the former at all rates from 14/1 to 3/1, and I'm on the latter at all rates from 33/1 to 14/1, and I'm happy to go to war with both.

I've farted about in some of the handicaps, but I won't do anything serious, until I get my mitts on the Black Book, and see the final decs.

I am highly unlikely to lay anything off during the meeting. The exception might be if I have (fingers crossed) a number of bets rolling onto either DDS in the Triumph, or NR (or even EOD) in the Gold Cup - at which point, I might look to lock in a profit.

That said, libation can sometimes get in the way of the best-laid plans, and my discipline is inversely-proportional to how much gargle I have consumed. If the week has gone well up to close-of-business on the Thursday, there's a strong chance I will not be arsed, and will let anything handy roll.

The abject failures to-date have been limited to Vautour, Senewalk, Min, and Faugheen, plus a clutch of small-stakes, early-season haymakers on horses who won't run, won't win, and who mainly form a leg of a multiple.

Overall, I'd say my book is about a 7.5/10, in terms of where I'd like it to be. If any of Defi Du Seuil, Might Bite, Empire of Dirt or Winter's Escape wins, I'll probably be about level for the week (non-betting expenses excluded). If I can get any combinations, I'll have had a good week. If I can get three, I'll have had a great week. If I can get four, I'll have had a tremendous week. If I can get anything else to land with those, I'll be buying myself some new Internet friends.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
How do you guys cope with your restricted accounts, do you just go elsewhere or do bookmakers cut a bit more slack for the Festival ?
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I've opened three (I think) new accounts, over the last couple of months. B365 have stopped taking my bets on certain horses. No issues getting matched on Betfair.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
How do you guys cope with your restricted accounts, do you just go elsewhere or do bookmakers cut a bit more slack for the Festival ?
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Betting in shops or simply opening new accounts. Its no good using restricted accounts as a reason not to win on the week. Do the work now and get a new account, it can be done.
 
SlimChance said:
I believe it was still very profitable up to two years ago. A lot has changed. Horses are priced more conservatively and firms no longer bet the festival 1/4 odds ante post. This diminishes the ante punters a lot.
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Absolutely. The combination of skinny odds and most books going 1/5 each way has meant I've got the smallest AP portfolio I've had for about 20 years. Several times in the last couple of months I've been considering backing a horse but have decided to wait until the day


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viking said:
Absolutely. The combination of skinny odds and most books going 1/5 each way has meant I've got the smallest AP portfolio I've had for about 20 years. Several times in the last couple of months I've been considering backing a horse but have decided to wait until the day


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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At least next week there is a good chance of Bet365 being a quarter all races. Add that in with the usual best price matching between 9am and noon and you'll soon wonder why you bothered having an ante post bet.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
What took him so long to realise that ?
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As Slim suggests, it's the changing nature of the landscape. With the extra day there are more options and connections aren't deciding until the last minute which is the final target.

FWIW, I'd either do away with supplementary entries or make the cost much more expensive, say up to 50% of the prize money.

Of the 20-odd bets I mentioned elsewhere, all bar four (Sceau Royal in October, Fox Norton in November, Min in November and Campeador in December, the latter pair at 190 and 86+ respectively for the Champion Hurdle) are either NRNB (almost all) or were taken at long odds and laid off at shorter so no risk if they don't run.

Given Min and Campeador were knowingly speculative, I reckon I've done quite well to get the other two looking like turning up.
 
I've learned....too late for this year....to stop placing the life changing £1m+ winning 5/6/7 accumulators... The majority of which i put on not long after the festival finishes! Probably had about 40+ AP bets and about 30+ are done due to horses no longer running. I have a bunch of decent ew trebles etc still going strong. But from now on there will be no more haymakers!
 
Desert Orchid said:
As Slim suggests, it's the changing nature of the landscape. With the extra day there are more options and connections aren't deciding until the last minute which is the final target.

FWIW, I'd either do away with supplementary entries or make the cost much more expensive, say up to 50% of the prize money.

Of the 20-odd bets I mentioned elsewhere, all bar four (Sceau Royal in October, Fox Norton in November, Min in November and Campeador in December, the latter pair at 190 and 86+ respectively for the Champion Hurdle) are either NRNB (almost all) or were taken at long odds and laid off at shorter so no risk if they don't run.

Given Min and Campeador were knowingly speculative, I reckon I've done quite well to get the other two looking like turning up.
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I think you have a big edge next week because you look at each race on its merits and without and preconceived conceptions about what the winner is. Hopefully with extra places and such competitive prices you can make a killing. I'm convinced that the future to beating Cheltenham is focusing on the handicaps. They are the races where you are most likely to back something that will halve in price.
 
SlimChance said:
I think you have a big edge next week because you look at each race on its merits and without and preconceived conceptions about what the winner is.
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My bets are almost entirely based on a figure already achieved that would be good enough to win a sizeable number of past renewals. Whether my figure is accurate is the crux! :lol:
 
Same here, some in store, and spread them about. I also use trusted smaller books who are looking to get new sports customers as they seem to limit less, and prices tend to be close to others, better than most sometimes, for example,

Bet365 - Yorkhill 3/1
Mr Green and 32Red 5/1
just as the first race I glanced at

Mr Green http://ads.mrgreen.com/redirect.aspx?pid=4081536&bid=8849

32red http://bit.ly/1pMMgcK

Theres a few others too but out at the moment, will dig them out later. Racebets have just been taken over by Betsson too I believe so they might change limits and stuff to get customers to com back.
 
I think you're probably right Slim, and it's pretty much where my head is. The edge there used to be ante post betting at the Festival has been destroyed by a combination of the bookmakers and thd the trainers. Bookmakers are using the smallest excuses to contact prices and the trainers are reluctant to confirm targets until very late.

I don't agree with you about going in on horses and then laying again after a trial though. The championship and novice championship races are very liquid from Novemeber onwards and prices can be cut significantly after each winning trial. As we agree bookmakers are keen to cut prices at every opportunity. If you're in and out its easy money. If you don't get out the market often contracts at some point anyway if you're patient enough. I know I don't need to teach you to suck eggs but if I'm on something early at say 10/1 to £500 and i can lay at 6/1 post race I made an easy £200. It doesn't take too many of these at various prices to build a nice bank. Sure you still get caught at times, but it's significantly less likely. Amingst the obvious ones to focus on this season were Altior, Douvan, Yorkhill, Thistlecrack, Annie, Unowhatimeanharry, Defi du Seuil, and Moon Racer. I've been caught on Thistlecrack, and probably will be on Moon Racer, and I didn't back Annie. That's three from the eight. Too high. One other thing to factor in is they still have to win if you leave them running.

From opening prices let's say these horses are go off at 15%ish of there Oct/Nov prices. So for very little risk to my stake I can potentially lock away perhaps as much as 75% of that for pretty much nothing. Then let's say hypothetically average opening prices across all of them was 10/1 and I had £50 on each. If so I'm taking out £3750/75% without having the risk of a loser on the day. But let's say I get caught on one through injury or whatever. I'm still at £3250, and then I have another that runs a poor trial and it drifts to 16/1. Worse case is I'm down to £2750 from my original £500 stake. That said that horse may still contract again, or at the very least I accept I've lost £30 on it.

The flip side of that is I hang on to them all for the Festival and say three of them dont get there which is roughly my batting average this year, and in addition to that one of them gets ruined over. So only half of them are winners at the full 10/1 average with a £2000 take out. Clearly given what's happened at this Festival and may becoming a trend this option has to be far more risky that what I described above, and this is the reason I'm kicking myself for not being disciplined this year.

Now in truth I'm likely to reinvest in the few days leading up to the Festival at shorter prices once they're confirmed, but only at the odds immediately prior. If that's the case I have the same four winners at shorter maybe at an average of 3/1 to the same stake adding a further £600 to the £2750 making it £3350 in profit for the same horses running for me on the day, when if I'd held on to all of the, it was only £2000. Essentially my way I made 67.5% more on my returns, and had banked most of it considerably sooner. The bottom line is whatever average numbers I use it comes back to the pretty much the same thing.

Now I realise what I've described is purely hypothetical, and you could probably pick at the numbers used to demonstrate, but I suspect you can see why this works and why the 67.5% better return isn't outrageous. Ultimately you're right it can be hard work staying on top of it and making the right moves at the right time, but on those numbers it's Surely worth it, particularly when the normal way of doing things has had the life sucked out of it and taking a lot of the enjoyment out of the season.

How many people have posted on here because they've seen good bets go under? Vautour, Thistlecrack, Annie, Faugheen, Coneygree, Sizing John, Empire of Dirt, Moon Racer, Vroom Vroom Mag. I could go on and we're not even there yet. Anyway, we might not agree on this one, but I'm determined to go back to it next season. What I might do is start a thread for it around Oct/Nov and post them up so they can be tracked.

To your final point with regards multiples, I absolutely agree. I can't turn the clock back on the many losers already this year, but the lesson is to leave it until now and forget about the long range stuff. I also like the ew multiples this close, and also day of the race doubles and trebles with the handicaps included.
 
I've learned over the years to adopt as far as possible a Hippocratic approach to the festival betting strategy, ie First do no harm.
 
The only rule I stand by is to not have any bets at this stage.

Speculative haymakers (while not generally for me) have their place when bet way in advance but once the bookies go NRNB c. 90% of value disappears.

The remaining 10% is for the aforementioned filthy e/w bets (even better in multiples) when the field is likely to cut up but there are no deductions or reduced place terms - but not normally in the handicaps, when the bookies will actually add place terms on the day
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've learned over the years to adopt as far as possible a Hippocratic approach to the festival betting strategy, ie First do no harm.
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My best piece of advice for next week is look for the softest money.

1. Place all bets between 9am and noon.
2. Source the best place terms
3. Multiples are your friend. Compound the morning value in multiples especially e/w where favourable
4. Don't be obsessed with your opinion. Just pick off the prices that are too big and have a diverse portfolio
5. Don't bet after noon especially if you're behind. Your edge so is so much less. There will be better spots the following morning.
6. If bookmakers are winning in the first two or three days dig deep on Friday, the value will be insane. The reverse is also true
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've learned over the years to adopt as far as possible a Hippocratic approach to the festival betting strategy, ie First do no harm.
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Here are three extracts of many similar from a WPM piece in this morning Irish Times. Kinda lays out the AP problem...

"Willie Mullins will leave any decision about supplementing Limini into next week’s Stan James Champion Hurdle until as late as possible before Wednesday’s vital declaration stage."

Vroum Vroum Mag, who has her own selection of Cheltenham entries that include the Stayers Hurdle and the Champion. “She is in the Champion Hurdle too and there’s still a week to go so things can change

“Let’s Dance is in the mares race, the mares novice and the other novices but I’m not going to make any hard and fast plans for her when there’s still a week to go,”

Imagine you are an owner and trying to plan your visit.
 
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SlimChance said:
My best piece of advice for next week is look for the softest money.

1. Place all bets between 9am and noon.
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While I adopt this principle myself I am concerned - this year more than most - that the ground could have a real impact and we won't know whether it really is the announced Good-Soft until after the Supreme.
 
wilsonl said:
While I adopt this principle myself I am concerned - this year more than most - that the ground could have a real impact and we won't know whether it really is the announced Good-Soft until after the Supreme.
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That's a fair shout.
 
I've added a number of bets this morning. They all concern runners in the Imperial Cup who might go on to a handicap at the festival.

At the moment I haven't finalised any bets for Sandown (although I've done my figures) as I want to wait for the final decs.

However, at the time of writing I'm looking beyond the Martin horses at possible longer-term plots with the bonus being reintroduced this year.

Consequently, I've taken the best odds NRNB for all the festival entries for Vosne Romanee, Fixe Le Kap and Max Do Brazil.

I might not back any of them come Saturday but if any of them wins or runs very well prior to turning up midweek surely their prices will crumble and if they blow out and miss the festival altogether I'm not risking anything.
 
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