Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,120
Location
Leyland
Camelot 11/4
SNA 7/1
Beauty Parlour 14/1
Danedream 14/1
Orfevre 16/1
Snow Fairy 20/1

Nathaniel 25/1
Imperial Monarch 25/1
Golden Lilac 25/1
Rulership 25/1
Saint Baudolino 33/1
Sea Moon 33/1
Kesampour 33/1
Galikova 33/1


At this stage I can't quite decide who is the worst price, Camelot because AOB does not win this and with his best 3yos and 11/4 is redonkulous or SNA because he has no ******* chance. I'm on Beauty Parlour at 15.5 on the machine and think Kesampour may end up being the main contender amongst the 3yo colts. Although they may all be poor like a couple of years ago so I'm not involved yet.
 
Golden Lilac looks big at 25/1 but it's probably because of the uncertainty about whether she'll stay. Lovely horse though.
 
St Nick is the best older horse in the world, so his price makes sense. Not for me though with uncertainty around AOB plans.

Agree about Kesampour.

Danedream too big. Her performance last year was v impressive.

Beauty Parlour has no chance for me, she looked slow in her Guineas beating 100-105 horses.

Orfevre should not even be quoted.

Galikova looks interesting.
 
Camelot 11/4 too short, his form is fine, likely to target for this after avoiding Frankel over 10f.

SNA 7/1 needs good ground and all his best run going left handed, will find at least one or 2 too good for him

Beauty Parlour 14/1, the form workingvery badly, poor price

Danedream 14/1, best value in the field, on last years form the one to beat , goes on any ground and will target the race.

Orfevre 16/1, plenty of ability bus some quirks, if running good chance.

Snow Fairy 20/1, exposed, not for me

Nathaniel 25/1, has scope in good hands, wants soft ground , the fact he has not run yet is not a good sign.


Imperial Monarch 25/1, interesting one,good horse will be suited by softer and 12f but has to prove he is a gr1

Golden Lilac 25/1, miler and not good enough

Rulership 25/1, unlikely to run and not good enough

Saint Baudolino 33/1 , not goodenough

Sea Moon 33/1, good type for the stable, butbad run first time out and will lack a gear

Kesampour 33/1, gr3 horse

Galikova 33/1, good fillie last year, only entrieso far is the p of w, where he will not run, bad signs



Others of interest
Shareta, 2 good runs this season, run very well last season and will be targeted for this.

pity Cirrus is not allowed to run

Frankel , on good ground would have a chance but sure not to run

Al KAzeem, surprising he didnt run in the Coronation, unexposed, in good hands but has to improve again.



Giofra, light framed, good form, lightly raced, could be a similar type to Pride, not out of it.


Light HEavy, good atittude , lightly raced, has to improve


Speaking of Which, impressive in the Gallinulle , could be top class



Dalkala, impressive last time, could be target if wins the Diane, has to improve.


Akeed Mofeed, bad sign he has not run yet, looked a top class horse but want to see him run this season before having a stronger opinion.






At the moment Deanedream is my clear pcik for the Arc.
 
sunybay said:
Camelot 11/4 too short, his form is fine, likely to target for this after avoiding Frankel over 10f.

SNA 7/1 needs good ground and all his best run going left handed, will find at least one or 2 too good for him

Beauty Parlour 14/1, the form workingvery badly, poor price

Danedream 14/1, best value in the field, on last years form the one to beat , goes on any ground and will target the race.

Orfevre 16/1, plenty of ability bus some quirks, if running good chance.

Snow Fairy 20/1, exposed, not for me

Nathaniel 25/1, has scope in good hands, wants soft ground , the fact he has not run yet is not a good sign.


Imperial Monarch 25/1, interesting one,good horse will be suited by softer and 12f but has to prove he is a gr1

Golden Lilac 25/1, miler and not good enough

Rulership 25/1, unlikely to run and not good enough

Saint Baudolino 33/1 , not goodenough

Sea Moon 33/1, good type for the stable, butbad run first time out and will lack a gear

Kesampour 33/1, gr3 horse

Galikova 33/1, good fillie last year, only entrieso far is the p of w, where he will not run, bad signs



Others of interest
Shareta, 2 good runs this season, run very well last season and will be targeted for this.

pity Cirrus is not allowed to run

Frankel , on good ground would have a chance but sure not to run

Al KAzeem, surprising he didnt run in the Coronation, unexposed, in good hands but has to improve again.



Giofra, light framed, good form, lightly raced, could be a similar type to Pride, not out of it.


Light HEavy, good atittude , lightly raced, has to improve


Speaking of Which, impressive in the Gallinulle , could be top class



Dalkala, impressive last time, could be target if wins the Diane, has to improve.


Akeed Mofeed, bad sign he has not run yet, looked a top class horse but want to see him run this season before having a stronger opinion.






At the moment Deanedream is my clear pcik for the Arc.
Click to expand...



Good post.
 
I'm already on Beauty Parlour and Orfevre at bigger prices than there but as Hamm eludes to, they're hardly value now with the former needing to step up markedly on what she's achieved despite her potential. Orfevre would second favourite if he hadn't raced this year but neither of those runs can hardly inspire confidence.

Totally agree about Kesampour being overpriced at 33s. The other three year olds I'd be mildly interested in at massive prices would be Main Sequence (who I think is going to be under rated) and Light Heavy who also has a lot of potential, I've taken some 310/1 on Betfair on the latter. :)

Been bits of money around for Nathaniel this weekend too.

Has anyone got a list of entries if there is one yet?
 
1 Brown Panther Gb M.ps. 4 A. 59,5 *** A. BLACK & OWEN PROMOTIONS LT TG. DASCOMBE 220.531
2 SEA MOON GB M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** KHALID ABDULLAH SIR MR. STOUTE 615.894
3 Fiorente Ire M.ps. 4 A. 59,5 *** BALLYMACOLL STUD FARM LTD SIR MR. STOUTE 66.958
4 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY IRE M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 2.480.992
5 WINDSOR PALACE IRE M.PS. 7 A. 59,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 81.429
6 AL KAZEEM GB M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** DANIEL JOHN DEER RJ. CHARLTON 156.781
7 PRAIRIE STAR M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 119.750
8 MEANDRE M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** FAMILLE ROTHSCHILD A. FABRE 433.957
9 NO RISK AT ALL M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** GALLORINI (S) JP. GALLORINI (S) 86.075
10 ATEMPO GER M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** GESTUT SCHLENDERHAN J. HIRSCHBERGER 53.350
11 MONTEROSSO GB M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 5.513.279
12 FAME AND GLORY GB M.PS. 6 A. 59,5 *** HAY/SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 411.150
13 TREASURE BEACH GB M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** HAY/SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 1.584.770
14 MIKHAIL GLINKA IRE M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** RAMZAN KADYROV A. SHAVUYEV 193.252
15 CARLTON HOUSE USA M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** SA MAJESTE LA REINE D'ANGLETER SIR MR. STOUTE 342.661
16 AWAIT THE DAWN USA M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 192.460
17 BEAT BLACK JPN M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** KOJI MAEDA H. NAKAMURA 2.006.264
18 EARNESTLY JPN M.PS. 7 A. 59,5 *** KOJI MAEDA S. SASAKI 1.990.568
19 TRAILBLAZER JPN M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** MLLE YOKO MAEDA Y. IKEE 1.877.368
20 MEMPHIS TENNESSEE IRE M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 269.504
21 Robin Hood Ire M.ps. 4 A. 59,5 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 36.275
22 MAXIOS (GB) M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** FAMILLE NIARCHOS J. PEASE (S) 65.850
23 MASKED MARVEL GB M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** BJORN E. NIELSEN J. GOSDEN 410.076
24 QUEST FOR PEACE IRE M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** O.T.I. RACING LM. CUMANI 122.823
25 DUNADEN (FR) M.PS. 6 A. 59,5 *** PEARL BLOODSTOCK LTD M. DELZANGLES 3.881.673
26 RELIABLE MAN (GB) M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** PRIDE RACING CLUB A.DE ROYER DUPRE 1.063.070
27 NATHANIEL IRE M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** LADY ROTHSCHILD J. GOSDEN 867.237
28 ORFEVRE JPN M.PS. 4 A. 59,5 *** SUNDAY RACING CO. LTD Y. IKEE 7.652.936
29 RULERSHIP JPN M.PS. 5 A. 59,5 *** SUNDAY RACING CO. LTD K. SUMII 3.166.464
30 AVENTINO JPN M.PS. 8 a. 59,5 *** MLLE KAZUKO YOSHIDA Y. IKEE 98.938
31 SHARETA (IRE) F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 1.224.305
32 SNOW FAIRY IRE F.PS. 5 A. 58 *** ANAMOINE LIMITED EAL. DUNLOP 1.697.136
33 TESTOSTERONE (IRE) F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** NURLAN BIZAKOV EAL. DUNLOP 231.860
34 SARAH LYNX IRE F.PS. 5 A. 58 *** MME ROBERT G. EHRNROOTH J. HAMMOND (S) 774.852
35 Haya Landa F.ps. 4 A. 58 *** MME ODETTE FAU MME L. AUDON 119.735
36 GOLDEN LILAC IRE F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** GESTUT AMMERLAND A. FABRE 967.670
37 DANEDREAM GER F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** GESTUT B. EBERSTEIN/T. YOSHID P. SCHIERGEN 2.990.186
38 BE FABULOUS GER F.PS. 5 A. 58 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 198.750
39 GIOFRA (GB) F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** HARAS DE LA PERELLE A.DE ROYER DUPRE 181.080
40 DANCING RAIN IRE F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** M.J. TAYLOR/L.A. TAYLOR WJ. HAGGAS 630.306
41 SAPPHIRE IRE F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** MOYGLARE STUD FARM LTD DK. WELD 72.590
42 GALIKOVA F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE F. HEAD (S) 679.300
43 SOLEMIA (IRE) F.PS. 4 A. 58 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. LAFFON-PARIAS 190.450
44 Akeed Mofeed Gb M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** JABER ABDULLAH J. OXX 30.455
45 LAST TRAIN GB M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** KHALID ABDULLAH A. FABRE 23.150
46 ASHKIYR M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 16.800
47 KESAMPOUR M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** S.A. AGA KHAN M. DELZANGLES 216.250
48 Mandour Usa M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** PCSSE ZAHRA AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 31.300
49 Saghann (Ire) M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** H.H. AGA KHAN M. DELZANGLES 28.000
50 ABTAAL USA M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM JC. ROUGET (S) 72.800
51 Ektihaam Ire M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM R. VARIAN 64.012
52 Masterstroke Usa M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** CHEIK MOHAMMED AL MAKTOUM A. FABRE 57.600
53 DREAM TUNE GB M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** CHEIK SULTAN B.K. B.Z. AL NAHYA CG. COX 11.469
54 FRENCH FIFTEEN M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** CHEIK ABDULLAH BIN KHALIFA AL T N. CLEMENT 352.459
55 AMARCORD M.PS. 3 a. 56 460 FREDERIC BIANCO E. LELLOUCHE 22.300
56 LIGHT HEAVY IRE M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** MME JAMES S. BOLGER JS. BOLGER 107.225
57 PARISH HALL IRE M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** MME JAMES S. BOLGER JS. BOLGER 247.647
58 Mothman (Ire) M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** MME GERALDINE BOUQUIL T. LEMER 25.500
59 LOI (IRE) M.PS. 3 A. 56 485 E. CIAMPI/L. DISARO JM. BEGUIGNE 69.700
60 CAMELOT GB M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** D.SMITH/M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 420.186
61 FURNER'S GREEN IRE M.PS.+ 56 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 103.930
62 AMERICAN DEVIL M.PS. 3 A. 56 495 ECURIE HARAS DE QUETIEVILLE J. VAN HANDENHOVE 66.510
63 MANDAEAN GB M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 157.274
64 ERNEST HEMINGWAY IRE M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 8.275
65 IMPERIAL MONARCH IRE M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 47.691
66 WROTE IRE M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 611.323
67 LAGO MINTO GB M.PS. 3 a. 56 MISE DE MORATALLA A.DE ROYER DUPRE
68 HARD DREAM (IRE) M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** PANDORA STUD LLC F. ROHAUT (S) 96.300
69 Sir Jade M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** GUY PARIENTE JM. CAPITTE (S) 64.550
70 BAYAN IRE M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** IRAJ PARVIZI BJ. MEEHAN 576
71 YAZDI IRE M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** IRAJ PARVIZI BJ. MEEHAN 4.679
72 Albion Gb M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** MLLE KIRSTEN RAUSING A. FABRE 59.900
73 Valdo Bere M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** LUIGI ROVEDA E. LEENDERS 49.550
74 KOLONEL GER M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** STALL HELENA A. WOHLER 7.000
75 WORLD ACE JPN M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** SUNDAY RACING CO. LTD Y. IKEE 1.421.710
76 DRAGON PULSE IRE M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** KAI CHAH TAN M. DELZANGLES 152.290
77 XANADOU IRE M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** DANIEL-YVES TREVES JC. ROUGET (S) 44.500
78 Nutello Usa M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. LAFFON-PARIAS 225.700
79 PROPULSION (IRE) M.PS. 3 a. 56 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE F. HEAD (S) 21.200
80 SOFAST M.PS. 3 A. 56 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE F. HEAD (S) 179.995
81 Mano Diao Gb M.ps. 3 A. 56 *** WH SPORT INTERNATIONAL MAR. HOFER 9.000
82 DALKALA USA F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 69.000
83 MAKANA F.PS. 3 a. 54,5 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 25.600
84 SAGAWARA (GB) F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** H.H. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 180.150
85 KISSED IRE F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 49.350
86 Twirl Ire F.ps. 3 A. 54,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 45.650
87 Wilddrossel Ger F.ps. 3 A. 54,5 *** ECURIE ROETTGEN M. KLUG 5.400
88 BEAUTY PARLOUR (GB) F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 326.130
89 PRETTY PLEASE (IRE) F.PS. 3 a. 54,5 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN M. DELZANGLES 17.000
90 Yellow And Green Gb F.ps. 3 A. 54,5 *** COMTE ANDRE DE GANAY N. CLEMENT 29.050
91 WALDLERCHE GB F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** GESTUT BERNRIED A. FABRE 65.000
92 SEDICIOSA (IRE) F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** MAURICE LAGASSE Y. BARBEROT 80.000
93 MAYBE IRE F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 314.950
94 WADING IRE F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 50.898
95 LA PEINTURE F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 490 JEAN-CLAUDE SEROUL A.DE ROYER DUPRE 96.775
96 HANA'S GOAL JPN F.PS. 3 A. 54,5 *** MICHAEL TABART K. KATO 478.889
 
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Camelot is a good Arc type (nice balance of speed/stamina) and with the advantage the 3yos get it would be tempting not to say compelling to go for this. He's too short for a colt that might run in the St Leger though.
 
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Why's it seen as so hard for Camelot to do both? Sea The Stars ran in the Irish Champion and the Arc which is only 6 days before the St Leger takes place. Also I'd imagine Camelot can win the Leger without taking too much out of himself as it's hardly likely to be an extremely strong field.
 
Sea the Stars also had the luxury of being able to run four or five pounds below his best after a hard season and still win in Paris (WFA helped) Camelot is obviously top class but unlikely to have that buffer.
 
I'm not sure. Have we seen the best of Camelot yet? He's rated the same as Sea The Stars was at this stage, and has only had four starts so will likely improve. Sea The Stars ran better races after the Derby, like in the Eclipse. It doesn't look a vintage Arc either by my reckoning.
 
Euronymous said:
Camelot 11/4
SNA 7/1
Beauty Parlour 14/1
Danedream 14/1
Orfevre 16/1
Snow Fairy 20/1

Nathaniel 25/1
Imperial Monarch 25/1
Golden Lilac 25/1
Rulership 25/1
Saint Baudolino 33/1
Sea Moon 33/1
Kesampour 33/1
Galikova 33/1
Click to expand...
Danedream was the one that jumped out at me too (since I backed her last year) but I'd presumed she'd retired. She sets the standard.
 
Wasn't impressed with her reappearance run though, doesn't look the same filly to me mentally wise.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Danedream was the one that jumped out at me too (since I backed her last year) but I'd presumed she'd retired. She sets the standard.
Click to expand...

Although she won her Group 2 in Germany well enough last month I couldn't have her to follow up in the Arc now that she's lost her advantage as a 3yo. As an older horse I can't see her running to Arc standard.
 
oh no DO..we had this last year..apparently only 3yo's win the Arc because they have a massive weight advantage which sways it their way

the fact that most 3yo's running in the Arc are the best of their generation running against 4yo+ that are usually below the best of their generation ..as most of their generation is at stud ...has nowt to do with it..its the weight that makes the difference so we are told;)
 
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It's not a massive weight advantage, but the WFA in the Arc is probably a little excessive. Eight pounds in October? Should be five or six imo.

Obviously four and five year olds still win the race on occasion:

2007 Dylan Thomas and Youmzain finished 1st and 2nd. It was an average renewal and the 3yo crop was poor that year.

2002 Marienbard was a 5yo. 3yo crop was decent but High Chaparral hadn't run since the end of June and Sulamani was given your typical poor ride from a bad draw. Best horse didn't win the race.

2001 Sakhee. The race missed Galileo but it wouldn't have mattered. Sakhee a cut above the usual 4yo to run in the race.


Going further back Urban Sea won when the 3yo crop was below average and Subotica when the best 3yo's weren't given proper Arc preps.




The very best 3yo winners tend not to run in the race the following year but some do and are just not the same. I think it isn't the weight that beats them it's the prep they are given. Some French trainers must have a manual on how to train Racehorses and the 3yo section is classics/summer off/Niel or Vermeille/Arc. But for 4yo's it's a blank page. This results in horses like Helissio following that well trodden 3yo path and winning in Paris in October and then as a 4yo running in the King George and the frigging Moulin when they should be tucked up in bed.

You'd have to look at the history of the race and probably conclude it isn't the weight then. It's not like scores of older horses are being beaten under a couple of lengths where the excessive two or three pounds made all the diff. The aforementioned Helissio and Hurricane Run and Workforce were just not given proper Arc preps.

I think the perfect renewal to look at is Dalakhani's. On heavy ground the 3yo beat Mubtaker and High Chaparral by three quarters and five lengths:

Arc Preps:
Easy Niel win for Dalakhani
Straightforward win in a Group 3 for Mubtaker
Lung Bursting Irish Champion for HC

It's not the weight it's the preparation.
 
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like you say..the previous years winners totally bomb out..be interesting to see how last years winner does this year..the prep etc

its as though when they have won the Arc it isn't as important to connections the year after and they gear their horses at other races

Workforce was an above average 3yo..but went backwards at 4
 
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EC1 said:
Workforce was an above average 3yo..but went backwards at 4
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I think his effort in the Eclipse wasn't far off his best. But imo he ran in the King George before he'd fully recovered from that race. I think Ascot hurt him and that's why he veered so sharply. I think the sad think about Workforce is that the owner had so many good horses that his Derby winner ran in all the wrong races.
 
Euronymous said:
It's not a massive weight advantage, but the WFA in the Arc is probably a little excessive. Eight pounds in October? Should be five or six imo.
Click to expand...
The UK wfa at 12f in early October is 7lbs. Timeform will claim their generally less generous wfa scale is based on actual race data because they believe the official scale is too generous to the younger horses yet their allowance for the same date and distance is 8lbs, which is what it is in the race itself. I don't think there is any case for arguing that the allowance is too generous.

Danedream started to improve from the summer on. Maybe the same will happen this year. Maybe she's an autumn filly and autumn fillies can be very good allies to have in the Arc. I wouldn't be writing off the possibility than she can rediscover her top form on the basis of a less-than-impressive seasonal debut.
 
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