Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Marble said:
And put simply, if you've kept a horse in training as a four year old and not sent it to the breeding sheds in this day and age it probably means its not good enough to win the Arc anyway.
Unless of course it missed the race as a 3yo through injury or whatever.

Its a sign of the times but just the way it is.
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High Chaparral
Sakhee
Dylan Thomas
Sulamani

These were all top class 3yo's who stayed in training and were aimed at the Arc.

Hurricane Run
Montjeu
Bago
Workforce

Were all winners of the race as 3yo's who stayed in training.
 
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Regards wfa, I did a tally of 3yo vs older horses in The King George VI and QEII stks winners. 1951 to 1990 21 3yo vs 19 older. 1990 to 2011 7 3yo vs 14 older. The wfa was 14lbs to 1976 then 13lbs to early 1990s and now 12lbs. Can we conclude that 12lbs is not enough wfa in July while 7or 8 lbs is too much 10 wks later?
A horses permanent incisor teeth are emerging yearly from 21/2 to 41/2 years old old and in wear by 5. I imagine that is where the concept of maturity and weight for age originated.
Interesting discussion though. Tks to all.
 
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Euronymous said:
High Chaparral
Sakhee

These were all top class 3yo's who stayed in training and were aimed at the Arc.
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The most pertinent example you give is Sakhee, but from my point of view High Chaparral wasn't good enough to win an Arc and probably stayed in training for that reason as a 4yo. He certianly didn't prove anything at 4 than he hadn't already done at three.


Euronymous said:
Hurricane Run
Montjeu
Bago
Workforce

Were all winners of the race as 3yo's who stayed in training.
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And the fact they did stay in training for the most part did nothing to prove anything on the horses behalf as they all lost their form quite severly afterwards s 4 year olds. Probably not the most wisest decision that the owners of those horses has ever made, though I accept Hurricane Run Montjeu and Workforce had probably needed to prove more on the racetrack, having been very lightly raced in their 2yo and 3yo campaigns.

I'm not saying that what I said before is some 'golden arc' rule, but generally the 3 year olds that win it are carted off to stud aren't they?
 
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Imperial Monarch for me, only if Arthur's legendary kingdom does not run...!!

but all depends whose there on the day.???

:whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:
 
3-y-o have won fewer recent renewals of the KGthan in the past because far fewer contest it these days than previously. Workforce I think was the first derby winner to run in it since Kris Kin.
 
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Aragorn/Hamm

I was resonding to stats that edgt posted about 3yo and 4yo+ winners of the King George, so was referring to that race. Will edit to clarify.
 
Marble said:
The most pertinent example you give is Sakhee, but from my point of view High Chaparral wasn't good enough to win an Arc and probably stayed in training for that reason as a 4yo. He certianly didn't prove anything at 4 than he hadn't already done at three.
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Irish Champion Stakes.
 
Farhh needs sticking in the betting for this given the shocking prices about half of the ones quoted!
 
sunybay said:
Camelot 11/4 too short, his form is fine, likely to target for this after avoiding Frankel over 10f.

SNA 7/1 needs good ground and all his best run going left handed, will find at least one or 2 too good for him

Beauty Parlour 14/1, the form workingvery badly, poor price

Danedream 14/1, best value in the field, on last years form the one to beat , goes on any ground and will target the race.

Orfevre 16/1, plenty of ability bus some quirks, if running good chance.

Snow Fairy 20/1, exposed, not for me

Nathaniel 25/1, has scope in good hands, wants soft ground , the fact he has not run yet is not a good sign.


Imperial Monarch 25/1, interesting one,good horse will be suited by softer and 12f but has to prove he is a gr1

Golden Lilac 25/1, miler and not good enough

Rulership 25/1, unlikely to run and not good enough

Saint Baudolino 33/1 , not goodenough

Sea Moon 33/1, good type for the stable, butbad run first time out and will lack a gear

Kesampour 33/1, gr3 horse

Galikova 33/1, good fillie last year, only entrieso far is the p of w, where he will not run, bad signs



Others of interest
Shareta, 2 good runs this season, run very well last season and will be targeted for this.

pity Cirrus is not allowed to run

Frankel , on good ground would have a chance but sure not to run

Al KAzeem, surprising he didnt run in the Coronation, unexposed, in good hands but has to improve again.



Giofra, light framed, good form, lightly raced, could be a similar type to Pride, not out of it.


Light HEavy, good atittude , lightly raced, has to improve


Speaking of Which, impressive in the Gallinulle , could be top class



Dalkala, impressive last time, could be target if wins the Diane, has to improve.


Akeed Mofeed, bad sign he has not run yet, looked a top class horse but want to see him run this season before having a stronger opinion.






At the moment Deanedream is my clear pcik for the Arc.
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I want to add one to the list
Novellist
not entered yet but one of the best 3yo in Europe and has plenty of scope
after winning the German Derby he will be a horse to be heard of.
 
Orfevre, good run this weekend, back in the picture if coming, looks top class
Danedream, disappointing in the GP St Cloud, where she run badly too, still interesting
Meandre, enigmatic horse, not bad in the GP St, Cloud but not for me
Galikova, fine run today , unlilely to win an Arc , 10 pounds to find.
Sea Moon, good run at Royal AScot, has to improve, likely to focus in the KG
Dunadem, fine horse, should not be good enough
Novellist, interesting one, form working and looks top class, short list but not entered and needs to be supplemented.
Camelot, good horse, price to short, St LEger not ideal and I dont see him facing Frankel at York
Deep Brillante, good japanesse 3yo, will show his level at ascot in the king george
Valyra, unexposed and possible runner, unlikely to win an arc
Was, lucky winner of the oaks, plenty to find and with so many stablemates here, unlikely to run
No Risk At all, impressive last time out, if staying has a chance, improving fast,
Golden lilac, miler, unlikely to run
St Nicholas Abbey, good form, goes better left handed and will find 2 or 3 better than him again
Speaking Of Which, Irish Derby will show how good he is, needs improvemnt but not out of it.
Imperial Monarch, soft ground is the key and has to improve
World Ace,good level, unlikely runner
Princess Highway, good form in the Ribbesdale, Arc is too much
Raysina, dark horse, plenty to find but goidn well and could be one for the Vermeille


Beauty Parlour , stamina and class big doubts, out of it
Daryaba, not good enough
The Fugue, hard season and needs fast ground, not good enough
Beaten Up , unlikely runner, trainer went to gr1 too early and should have phisical problems
Al Kazeem, not seen since Newmarket, should be injured
Light Heaavy, trained by Bolger and has not run for months, should be very very ill
Akeed Mofeed, said to be running this weekend in the Irish, no strong opinion until I see him
Giofra, another out of the racecourses since the Ganay, there must be something wrong
Frankel, almost sure non runner
Shareta, exposed
Reliable Man, not good enough
Nathaniel, bad sign he is a non runner this season, needs soft
 
Camelot surely can't win this now. Worst bunch of 3yo's ever?

I've backed the Japanese horse as well as Beauty Parlour.
 
Have the middle distances ones really had chance to prove themselves?

Camelot speaks for himself, he's just been fantastic and couldn't have done anymore. Main Sequence hasn't ran again since the Derby, we'll know more exactly one week from now. Astrology has been raped. The rest never looked like superstars anyway and Bonfire clearly has attitude problems.

I really am struggling to find anything to back. I'm on Orfevre and whilst he is back on track to some extent, he still hasn't looked like the horse he was late last year.

Beauty Parlour has a lot to do to look like an Arc candidate for me and I was one of her biggest fans pre and post Pouliches.

I'd be sniffing around for prices about Princess Highway and Great Heavens in the hope they get supplemented.
 
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Orfevre looks the one for me, I took 16/1

Beauty Parlour, not good enough for me and I dont think she will sty 12f, I think she will run in the Opera.


Nathaniel , interesting one after today, goes well on soft too and has scope.

Danedream, still intersting although she was disappointing the other day.

Galikova, good run first time out and will targeted but has to improve a lot.


Novellist, bad run in the German Derby and unlikely to be supplemented now

Camelot, the form looks very weak and St Leger not ideal prep

No Risk At all, impressive last time out, dark horse.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Have the middle distances ones really had chance to prove themselves?

Camelot speaks for himself, he's just been fantastic and couldn't have done anymore. Main Sequence hasn't ran again since the Derby, we'll know more exactly one week from now. Astrology has been raped. The rest never looked like superstars anyway and Bonfire clearly has attitude problems.

I really am struggling to find anything to back. I'm on Orfevre and whilst he is back on track to some extent, he still hasn't looked like the horse he was late last year.
.
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Camelot
is not only the Derby form
Guineas is not working either


Orfevre
is a quirky type and the jockey can be a problem
but in his last , he posted a better form than anything he did last season when dominating the japanesse racing.
 
Euronymous said:
Camelot surely can't win this now. Worst bunch of 3yo's ever?

I've backed the Japanese horse as well as Beauty Parlour.
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Even with the advantage the 3yos have in this at the end of the season, the Guineas horses have a lot on their plate to stay in top form for the entire season and it’s to the credit of STS that he was able to win the Arc below his best. This is against Camelot, although if fresh he’d clearly have a good chance.

Given the advantage the 3yos get in this the unexposed Valyra would have a chance if she doesn’t go for the Prix de L’Opera instead.
 
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