Punting projects

Thanks Carl-as EC1 said writing things down makes a difference.Something I suggested a few years ago was that various members of the forum would start threads about different stables and post their observations regarding potential Stars,dodgepots,possible big race targets and recommend bets or lays.
 
LUKE said:
Thanks Carl-as EC1 said writing things down makes a difference.Something I suggested a few years ago was that various members of the forum would start threads about different stables and post their observations regarding potential Stars,dodgepots,possible big race targets and recommend bets or lays.
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Good idea
I put a thread up on Nicky Richards a couple of seasons back, I don't mind saying It yielded its fair share of winners.
 
Interesting thread Luke.

Just as a matter of interest, given you're more than adept at reading races in particular trading in and out of positions, why not persevere with stage 1 and keep doing what you have been doing rather impressively to date, rather than trying to shoot the lights out at a highly competitive fixture?

Are boredom and lack of discipline (admittedly 2 of my achilles) such that you don't see yourself being able to manage a conceivably large sum on betfair?
 
redundant pal said:
Interesting thread Luke.

Just as a matter of interest, given you're more than adept at reading races in particular trading in and out of positions, why not persevere with stage 1 and keep doing what you have been doing rather impressively to date, rather than trying to shoot the lights out at a highly competitive fixture?

Are boredom and lack of discipline (admittedly 2 of my achilles) such that you don't see yourself being able to manage a conceivably large sum on betfair?
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Redundant Pal -I remember your equine namesake well -for years he was the reason I didn't really trust Irish racing outside the highest class.
I wish I could multiply starting banks by 15 every week -would cut out the need to work.
If there is one thing I have learned about punting over the last few years it's that the more time you spend punting the more you are doomed to fail-in the past I have had some unbelievable weekends where there was high class racing only to blow the best part of the winnings on midweek muck.
I think it is possible to nick fivers and tenners on betfair for relatively little risk but eventually boredom,greed and lack of discipline kick in.
Do you think I am mad going for it with the lucky 15 -say I did all 4/1 shots the return for 4 winners is 71K -the return for 4 placed horses is 4K.I would want as much as possible in my favour and I'm happy to wait until next March.The way I look at it is that I am playing with their money.
 
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Regarding handling a large bankroll on betfair after a while it just becomes a number on a screen you become divorced from what the money actually means.One day last year I was in town for a haircut on a Saturday afternoon -after I finished I had 20 on a 6/4 winner in the bookies and got a really good take away for the wife and kids on the way home.If I won 30 online I wouldn't dream of telling the wife because you don't know if you will still have it in 20 minutes.
Anyway that's a discussion for another day.
 
Luke, you clearly know what you're talking about, in particular the psychology of gambling and the negative correlation between time spent studying and success.

I am still making the same mistakes you mention having been betting for several years (you remember redundant pal so that long!), namely being unable to detach myself between a number on the Betfair screen and what it ought to count for. And of course boredom on a mundane midweek meeting lending you trying to manufacture a profit, which inevitably doesn't end well.

I guess I was trying to ascertain whether I could do anything different as you have quite a similar mindset and approach to my own, but your answers pretty much mirror what I thought anyway.

The very best of luck with it, will follow the thread with interest. You have a healthy approach to betting - if there is such a thing!
 
Thanks RP-I think between us we have summed it up -backing winners isn't the problem-knowing when to get involved and when to walk away is the problem.
 
The Lucky 15 is fascinating. That's a huge amount to have on a e/w lucky 15, Luke.
My feeling is you are staking way too much on that, you won't need 50 quid each way on a L15 to get to six figures.

Best of luck, anyway.
 
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Marble said:
The Lucky 15 is fascinating. That's a huge amount to have on a e/w lucky 15, Luke.
My feeling is you are staking way too much on that, you won't need 50 quid each way on a L15 to get to six figures.

Best of luck, anyway.
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It is massive overstaking by me but it is effectively a free bet.I have thought a lot about my expectations as a punter over the last week-as a 20 year old I was grinding out an annual profit despite paying 10% tax -that was 26 years ago and the punting landscape has changed completely in that time.There has never been a better time in history to grind out a profit as a punter but I also think maybe once a year I should be going for a spectacular win.
 
Had a look tomorrow and the only one I see as each way lucky 15 material is Found.Love the Leopardstown card but I think it's a meeting to trade on betfair.
 
Had a go myself today and lost the whole £50 starting bank on a place lay of G Force. I think i'll leave laying to the experts.
 
LUKE said:
Couldn't find a single horse to put in a Lucky 15 today -I'm thinking about Arc Sunday.
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On a Saturday with 365 with them betting horses to the win line on Betfair with extra places on multiple races do you really need to fancy anything? I'd rather find a good day where they are mad competitive on places and split your stake up in permed luckys on a group of horses. That will give you a better chance of scooping.

Today for example you'd have 2 x 3 or 3 x 2 horses in the Silver and Ayr Gold Cup with other best price stuff in good e/w races. Bringing opinion too much into it will limit you.
 
Arpaderat said:
On a Saturday with 365 with them betting horses to the win line on Betfair with extra places on multiple races do you really need to fancy anything? I'd rather find a good day where they are mad competitive on places and split your stake up in permed luckys on a group of horses. That will give you a better chance of scooping.

Today for example you'd have 2 x 3 or 3 x 2 horses in the Silver and Ayr Gold Cup with other best price stuff in good e/w races. Bringing opinion too much into it will limit you.
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Fair point but for €1500 I would to have some degree of confidence and not just be backing theoretical value.
 
I want to have the bet of a lifetime-win enough to move house.I have no doubts I can turn the 1500 into 2K on Arc day trading on betfair but why not go for the life changing bet.
 
Just saying that you don't need that big a bet for a life changer. A €10 e/w Lucky and e/w Acca could land that with the upside of the place bet being massively +EV.
 
LUKE said:
.....why not go for the life changing bet.
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This is the curse that most of us carry, Luke, but it's the only way to go about business, imo. Chipping away is for the birds - but nowadays I want a rush, when I bet.*

I realise that this rails against perceived 'profit is everything' logic, but I guess I've come to terms with the fact that I have degenerate tendencies.
 
LUKE said:
Couldn't find a single horse to put in a Lucky 15 today -I'm thinking about Arc Sunday.
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What's the thinking for Sunday?
Personally id struggle to put together a L15 looking at the card.
 
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