Qm Champion Chase

betsmate

betsmate

At the Start
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Dec 7, 2004
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Nickname - 20/1.

Yes there is always the ground lottery - but surely if there is any year where Brassil will chance him it is this one?

Look what's ahead of him in the market:

Twist Magic - I am a fan, but people are questioning his ability to get up the hill and a dominant Nickname over 17f on Wednesday will surely see his position at the top of the market wobble.

VPU - Don't rate (probably guilty of underrating) but so does everyone else so less of a threat in the market than on the course.

Tamarinbleu - destined for a different race?

MWDS - How confident are people that his sub-par performances are purely down to stamina?

Jack the Giant - plenty to prove...


Some questions?

- Who is the best Irish 2 miler? = Nickname
- Do the Brits have an exceptionally strong hand? = No
- Is the market impressionable following Twist Magic's defeat? = Yes
- Will Nickname win on Wednesday? = Yes

What chance to people think that Nickname will be available at 20/1 on Thursday?
 
An easy win over a weak field at Fairyhouse is hardly likely to see him cut that drastically particularly in the context of two of the better Irish 2 milers getting thrashed over the weekend.
 
I disagree. I think the market is weak at the moment and much more susceptible to sentiment than ability.
 
Actually, thinking about it, this is a no brainer isn't it?

If you were David Pipe, why wouldn't let Tamarinbleu take his chance in the 2 mile Champion?

1: You've just lost Well Chief
2: The race looks weak
3: The Ryan Air looks ultra competitive and there'd be even less realistic prospect in the Gold Cup
4: You've just beaten the favourite fair and square by 12L's. You've out jumped him, and out stayed him at speed, and had him beaten three out, the extra furlong wasn't an issue
5: In beating Twist Magic 12L's, you've got a recent formline to the defending Champion and second fav, which also gives you the nod.
6: You've also beaten a well regarded Irish horse whose just won a grade 1 over there, and holds Nickname on most recent running
7: Where would Paul Nicholls want you to go? always do what the opposition would want you to do least etc
8: Tamarinbleu's participation in the Champion Chase, gives you options with Our Vic, and allows you to take up the assignment that you were probably leaning towards anyway

The more I've watched it, Tamarinbleu's performance looks legitimate rather than flukey, and you'd be insane to be considering anything else, now surely? Why would you?, the horse has just advertised his ability to win a Champion Chase for christ sake.

At 4 times the price , he's got to be the value
 
Warbler I agree. But it is my belief in reading between David Pipe's lines that he won't take part which points me to the value in Nickname's price (in the context of the market).
 
I'm mindful of the fact that he had the fastest 2 mile novice hurdler last season (Osana after Wincanton) and struck on the master plan of going to the County Hurdle with him!!!! shrug::

I'm hoping he has the good sense to take stock, and close his ears to the bleatings of Nicholls and Walsh about the ground.

"Ruby says it was riding heavy, I won't run him on that again" etc

Well I'm sorry, an unadjusted 8.90 secs slow is not a heavy ground time, neither did Ascot declare heavy.

Nicholls invoking Hoo La Baloo as evidence of the ground is even more desperate, and disingenious. So far as I can see, he too was caught out by the pace of the race, and hence the latent class of the winner, and basically even more quickly and cruelly exposed. Indeed he was further away from Twist Magic today than he was in the Tingle Creek, which at least suggests that TM was able to live with Taraminbleu for a bit longer before his superiority told. HLB had long given up the cause, and with some staying form might even have been expected to last longer.

The simple fact as far as I can see, is that despite everything that the form book and ratings told us, Taraminbleu won the race fair and square today by setting and sustaining a searching pace the others couldn't match. I hope that when Pipe sits down to perouse his options common sense kicks in. I mean if someone gave him a blank piece of paper, and asked him to write down what he would require a horse to do before he considered running it in a Champion Chase for the first time, he wouldn't go far wrong from describing exactly what Taraminbleu's done this season. What else does the damn horse need to do for christ sake?

With that in mind, neither Schindlers Hunt or Mansony have done anything to suggest that Nickname would have won today either

If however Nicholls can succeed in planting the seed of doubt in his mind a diverting him into other evenbts where he holds less of a chance, then they'll be howling with hysterics in Ditcheat. Despite Ruby saying "He'll win a Champion Chase on good ground", I think they'd be less than human if they weren't a bit concerned that their good thing has been comprehensively beaten in a faster time than that which they managed when beating VPU on slower ground at Sandown.

Taraminbleu's done that fair and square I reckon, and as the Pipe's come to realise it (which Nicholls's excuses might actually help reinforce yet) I suspect they'll re-route the two mile option. If I was going to be honest, I'd have thought Taraminbleu's prospects of turning in Marhc are probably higher than Nicknames, and that's before we even speculate about which is the best horse.
 
VPU - Don't rate (probably guilty of underrating) but so does everyone else so less of a threat in the market than on the course.
Click to expand...

Foolish in my opinion. Look at the horses overall form.
 
Some interesting thoughts and opinions on this thread, but I think that those in response to my original posting are missing it's point.

I am not trying to identify the winner of the QM in January, simply a potential market mover. After the favourite is turned over in any AP market, the next move is often an interesting one.
 
Is there any chance that Master Minded would go for this?

He could be a Grade 1 horse, and the 2m division looks a lot weaker than the Ryanair.

I have never been a massive fan of Voy Por Ustedes, even though he is a profitable horse for me.

It was a poor Champion Chase last year. That said, this year's race looks even worse.
 
I think Paul has said he has given, or will give, Master Minded an entry. What price for Clive to win both the big ones?

However, we do like VPU and think he is much better than the bare form might present. Have always loved him and it is hard to knock an Arkle and QM winner. He is really tough and jumps well in the main at high speed. Also can go on any ground.
 
Tiny. Even if half of Gloucester was still flooded you just know Cheltenham would come up Good on Champion Hurdle day.
 
I think they are intending to run Master Minded in The Game Spirit, but I got the feeling that he is more likely to run in the Ryanair or a handicap at Cheltenham than the Champion Chase.
 
What are the plans for VPU ? Will he run before the mecca???
Considering how Twist Magic won at Sandown---all things considered--it is hard to see VPU beating him----the Irish are not good enough so if Pipe feels T is a stayer as opposed to a Champion 2 miler---what is going to beat the top 2 in the market??
 
Whats the thoughts on Accordion Etoile, a horse who has previous beaten Tamarinbleu at Cheltenham off level weights?

His jumping leaves something to desired, but if Nolan can get him to jump, then maybe the 33's on offer would look a little large given how open this years renewal is?

I'm off to do some more studying.
 
He is going to run over hurdle this season. I read that on the sportinglife website yesterday.

Andreas is another interesting one? But he has quite a lot to find.
 
I was given to understand he would start off in a hurdles race? which is of course slightly different
 
Warbler...good points but if the ground wasnt as testing as it can be on Saturday its difficult to know what outside of a Tsunami would make it heavy. I live not too far away and it was the wettest week for god knows how long

Wtaching the race i wasnt so sure it was stamina that did for him as much as he simply didnt act on the ground when asked to pick up. Maybe need to see it again...
 
To Clivex, agree Nickname is as worthy a bet as any of the other main protagonists.

I remember a couple of seasons ago winning at Leopardstown and doing the sort of demolition job only Carvill's Hill had done there before.

He then seemed to lose all form but new tactics witnessed last seasons return to form.

Ground is key so there has to be a question marke over his participation which makes ante-post interest a non starter.

Also looking back at the horses finishing in behind him last season, such as Central House and Watson Lake, the form has anything but a solid look to it.

After Saturday's shake up, the market looks wide open and for me the safest option is to side with VPU with his flexibility as regards ground and his impeccable fesitval record compelling factors. I think his Sandown defeat could be attributed to still feeling the effects of a very hard seasonal debut giving lumps of weight away in attritional gorund, and hopefully King will now get him to Cheltenham a fresh horse.

For some reason the QM has a history of multiple winners, and VPU strikes me as value now.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Jan 20 2008, 01:38 PM
Is there any chance that Master Minded would go for this? He could be a Grade 1 horse, and the 2m division looks a lot weaker than the Ryanair.
Click to expand...
Jim McGrath reporting in the Telegraph a conversation he had with Clive Smith in their local Waitrose [section on Kaauto's intended tilt at the Ascot chsae on Feb 16th snipped]:

"The owner also revealed that there were high hopes for Master Minded, his French purchase, who registered a first British victory, in handicap company at Sandown Park on Jan 5.

The Ryanair Chase had been put up as a Cheltenham target by some, but Clive fancies a crack at the two-mile Queen Mother Champion Chase. "He'll go to Newbury (Feb 9) for the Game Spirit Chase next," he revealed.
 
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