Qm Champion Chase

Master Mind the horse tomorrow to lay big claims? Backed right down to as low as 8/1 in places for the QM this week. Seems like there is alot of confidence behind him.
 
Daft price on the face of it but the race looks weak this year. He gets 6lbs from VPU so needs to win tomorrow or at least finish very close-up.
 
One or two firms are going NRNB for Cheltenham. I'd recommend a hefty punt on Master Minded before he wins tomorrow (which he most likely will imo) with a view to laying off subsequently. If he doesn't win tomorrow, he'll not be running in the Champion so you'll have lost nothing. Bingo!
 
Masterminded should be the fav in my opinion but the 5yo stat could back to haunt anyone who backed him.
 
I thought he was quite impressive yesterday, but doesn't he need some cut in the ground, not something that is always available at the Festival.

He certainly looks the part, a much stronger type than Voy Por who is a little on the narrow side.
 
I wouldn't, I'd lay off and guarantee a profit. I suspect he'll go off longer on the day and you can always go back in again if you genuinely think he'll win.

Which I don't by the way. :D
 
If he goes off bigger on the day, I think I will just whack another bet on. I would imagine he will only go off bigger if Ruby goes for Twist Magic.

I was searching for months for alternatives to the two favourites. Having backed Accordion Etoile for the past two years, I nearly did so again, until I looked in a bit more depth at M squared, as I call him.

Twist Magic is classy, but has more holes in him than a Swiss cheese. Voy por Ustedes, although admirably tough and consisent is surely not the horse with the ability to win at three festivals in a row.

He has gotten lucky the last two years, but he has yet to meet a proper 2 mile chaser. I believe that Master Minded is a proper 2 mile chaser.
 
With you being on at 27's I sincerely hope your right Bar. I just think this represents a very different test than the ones he's faced so far, and I'm not entirely convinced he's equipped for it quite just yet. A personal opinion of course and nobody is right until March 12th.

Laying off now protects the massive value you gained, and given your judgement and faith has already been vindicated it would be a shame if it went down the toilet when you can back him again and only risk a relatively small percentage of your bet.
 
I'm not so sure that VPU has "got lucky" the last two years - a dual Festival winner (of the 2m novice championship then the 2m championship so there's consistency there at least) doesn't tend to do so through luck or fluke alone.

As I've said before, I'm strongly of the opinion that VPU is consistently underrated by so many as he doesn't tend to post flashy or very impressive performances - he tends to be workmanlike and, more importantly, consistent. Cheltenham suits him well and I can see him turning the form around next month - King said he was running him as he was gassy and he had to run him somewhere before the Festival due to that. One thing is for sure - he will be tuned to the day for the Festival, not so much for a prep race.

One thing is for sure - VPU is an eminently backable price now!
 
I am probably being a bit unfair in saying that he has gotten lucky. He is a solid horse, and a very good one at that. But I refuse to believe that last year's Champion Chase (and indeed the previous year's Arkle) were anything but sub-par renewals.

I understand your point of view, SL, and ordinarily course form is more important.

But your fellow has been brushed aside pretty conclusively twice in the past three races. Beating Hoo La Baloo does not put the shits up anybody.

I only saw the last three fences of the race on Saturday; I just had a proper look there. I am a bit concerned about the horse's tendency to jump out to the right. If Shadow and King are right, and VPU were to improve for fitness and course, I am not so sure that Master Minded will get away with that around Cheltenham.

Hmmmmm.

Incidentally, I am turning right off Twist Magic.
 
Exactly whom is underrating Voy Por Ustedes? Looking at his RPR, BHA rating and his price for the Champion Chase, I'd have him down as being overrated myself.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Feb 11 2008, 07:49 PM


I only saw the last three fences of the race on Saturday; I just had a proper look there. I am a bit concerned about the horse's tendency to jump out to the right. If Shadow and King are right, and VPU were to improve for fitness and course, I am not so sure that Master Minded will get away with that around Cheltenham.

Hmmmmm.

Incidentally, I am turning right off Twist Magic.
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If i were you i`d have a bit on Tamarinbleu. He`s a nice price at 8s and value wise you`d be in a fantastic position overall.
 
If he runs that is Euro.

Bar, yes, VPU has been beaten three times now this season but he still turns in consistent performances. On two of those runs he was giving plenty of weight away and he didn't seem to handle the ground in the Tingle Creek or didn't run his race for whatever reason. I still think the horse is the one to beat though - I have never taken to Twist Magic and think it needs a flat track, Master Minded I believe is being talked up far too soon.

DJ - VPU is underrated by many on here for starters, I believe. He has constantly been talked down despite his big wins whilst there has been plenty of talk about how weak the 2m division is (in truth that's probably more because it had previously been so strong for a few years) and how lucky VPU has been to register his Festival wins (I've lost count of the amount of people who have stated that Well Chief WOULD have won the QM last year - how on earth can anyone say that when it went at the second?!) as well as lots of talking up of various young Nicholls horses that will beat him - which is great now I can get a decent price about him!
 
Think he has been outpointed fair and square twice this year. And while he has won at the festival twice, I think he has plenty of questions to answer now. Has the french bred peaked?
 
Some things to consider if you think Voy Por is a bit too slow now. His form at Cheltenham is well in excess of what he produces elsewhere. He's a horse that needs a strong pace on a stiff, galloping track to be seen at his best. And although he has been beaten three times into second this season, at Cheltenham he was giving almost two stones away, and at Sandown and Newbury the lack of early pace clearly suited both Twist Magic and Master Minded as they are ultimately quicker than he is. In a strongly run Championship race at Cheltenham he is an entirely different proposition however. Assuming Tamarinbleu turns up I think it's fair to assume they won't be hanging around and surely that will suit him more than the other two. Choc will also ride him handier just like he has at the last two Festivals so I'm happy that the Nicholls pair won't get away from him like they did when they beat him by 3l and 5l respectively. His RPR's and TS's at Cheltenham are ultra-consistent and I have doubts as to whether the other three can replicate that under the specific conditions we can expect, and I still feel he is the horse to beat. I do agree with the assertion that his Arkle and Champion chase wins weren't up there with the best, but once again I don't expect this years race to be up there either so I think that point is irrelevant.

What we're seeing here isn't a new phenomenon this season, and I would point not only to his historical performances away from the Festival which have been generally up to a stone worse, but I would use his defeat behind Foreman at Aintree, albeit post-Festival, as a specific example of why he shouldn't be underestimated in March off the back of his prep runs. The Cheltenham and Aintree races were like chalk and cheese and as such we saw two very different performances against essentially the same horses. The comparison of those two runs says everything you need to know about the horse. He hasn't been out of the first two in any chase he's completed, and careful analysis of his races is very revealing. If Tamarinbleu didn't turn up and we find ouselves with a race that lacks genuine Championship pace then I agree he would be vulnerable to the Nicholls pair, but I don't see that happening though so I agree with those who say his current price is massive in the context of the race.
 
The other thing of course about this race typically being run quickly, is that it puts tremendous emphasis on fast and accurate jumping, probably more so than any other event. Given that only 3 or 4 line up in a normal year seemingly capable of winning it on known form, it is these horses that are to a large extent forced to attack the course thus, and go for broke. I suspect it might be worth reflecting then just how many leading fancies in recent years have fallen, or made race ending mistakes, as I think it might be more relevant here than any other race, given that there appears to be a reasonable expectation that one will come down. I realise it's normally an 'unknown' element you have to take on trust, but with all the potential winning candidates required to race and jump at speed, there's probably more grounds for factoring it into one's calculations than normal

2007 - Well Chief fell when fav
2006 - Kauto Star fell when fav
2005 - Azertyuiop made race ending mistake when 2nd fav
2004 - Moscow Flyer fell when fav
2003 - Tuitchev fell when 2nd fav

Of those heading affairs as things stand, who do we think are the most and least likely to fall?

Actually thinking about it, that's 5 renewals, and therefore 10 horses in total covering the first two positions in the market. A 50% failure rate amongst the leading contenders is phenomenally high. Admittedly it's only a small, though recent sample, but the chances of all of the front 4 getting round looks odds against on this snapshot
 
Twist Magic came down at speed at the Festival last year, and Master Minded is massivley inexperienced for a race of this nature. Also Paul Nicholls seems to have more than his fair share of fallers in big chases, so if we were talking in % chance terms I would think the Nicholls pair could be the more vulnerable to jumping errors.

Watch Voy Por and Tamarinbleu jump like pigs now!
 
I think Shadow Leader is right.

VPU probably blew up at Newbury, and he is clearly well suited to the stiff uphill finish at Cheltenham.

For me at 4s he is a nailed on e/w bet, and I expect him to reverse form with Master Minded come March.
 
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