Quevega

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Quite a gamble going on this mare in recent days for the mares hurdle race. Her form is there for all to see and it is easy to see why she is fancied but is decent ground a worry for her? Disappointed badly on decent ground at Punchestown and she does have quite a knee action.
 
yes there does seem to be a lot of confidence in this one. I can't see past Whiteoak myself, then again if she goes for the Champion...
 
I think the McCain & the owners would be well advised to go for the Mares race. I really don't see Whiteoak is being good enough to be in the first 6 or 8 in the Champion hurdle, but she'd have a leading chance in the Mares race.
 
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On form she's worthy of a rating of 130ish, which puts her in the mix, no more than that. I think you have to take the french form with a grain of salt, sure it's some indicator of ability but it can't pay to translate directly.
 
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Was very impressed with her the last day at Punchestown and Mullins has said she'll definitely improve for the run, the form of her jaunt to France is absolutely rock solid with Grade 1 and 2 form all the way down the field.

1st Grivette - won 4 on the spin since pulling up in a G1 at the end of November
2nd Hurricane Fly - nuff said
3rd Quevega
4th La Grande Dame - Won a Grade 3, Listed race and 2nd in G1 hurdles since (to Questarabad)
5th Othermix - started favourite, now with Tom George who rates him highly and runs in the Champion Hurdle
6th Mobi - one run over fences in a G1 since, also 7 lengths behind Kasbah Bliss in Deauville Handicap
7th Worldbest - 3rd in G1 since (Questarabad race)
8th Sleeping Blue - 4 races since, all over fences including 13 lengths 5th in G3.
9th Desiree Des As - Well beaten in graded and listed hurdles since
PU Fair Attitude - Tailed in one race since.

Worry maybe about the ground - as TS has already alluded to I'm a big fan of this mare and have been waiting for her to run over here since that run back in June.
 
I'm not denying the form is good, and if she was running in a French Hurdle race it would be considerably more relevant. What I am saying is that when horses run well in France it is more miss than hit that they bring the form back.
 
I think the ground is the main worry.

She opened up odds against last time at Punchestown but was backed off the boards. Plenty of confidence behind her....she might just get away with the ground at Cheltenham with her race being on the first day.
 
I agree with the jist of your point Mel but the class of horse is still the same - we've seen with some of the French-breds over here that horses are either up to the class or not - IMO Quevega's run shows that she was up to running in open graded races.

It's unlikely we'd discriminate between the King George and the Arc and the only real difference between the French hurdle races and those in the UK and Ireland (other than the ground which has already been mentioned) is the design of the actual hurdles.
 
5 day stage:

Amber Brook (IRE) 8.m
Aura About You (IRE) 6.m
Carole's Legacy 5.m
Chomba Womba (IRE) 8.m
Dansimar 5.m
Gallileo Figaro (USA) 6.m
Gaspara (FR) 6.m
Give It Time 6.m
Helens Vision 6.m
How's Business 5.m
Issaquah (IRE) 7.m
Megans Joy (IRE) 7.m
Oscar Rebel (IRE) 7.m
Over Sixty 6.m
Pagan Starprincess 5.m
Purely By Chance 4.f
Quevega (FR) 5.m
Shenanigan 8.m
Sweetheart 5.m
United (GER) 8.m
Whiteoak (IRE) 6.m
Wychwoods Legend 6.m
 
I think she looks dreadfully short on what she's actually done. The form of Whiteoak and United looks superior and both of them have fewer questions regarding ground as Galileo points out.
 
When I load the RP card for this race Carole's Legacy shows for a couple of seconds, then the page does a kind of shimmy and she's gone. Is she forbidden fruit?

I've no idea where the Quevega support is coming from. Very odd.
 
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Has been well touted at every preview in Ireland.I think the fact that she is so short now will se her drift on the day.Nick Mordin gave her a piss poor time for her last run so presumably the clockers will be against her as well.I wouldn't panic and take the short price.
 
I'd be dubious about backing her at all.

By the way, the race card shows all the runners off level weights except the 4-y-old. Won't Whiteoak, Chomba Womba, and maybe United, have penalties to carry?
 
Irish Stamp said:
........... the only real difference between the French hurdle races and those in the UK and Ireland (other than the ground which has already been mentioned) is the design of the actual hurdles.
Click to expand...

Not sure I'd entirely agree with that, Irish. If we are talking Auteuil versus what she will face at Cheltenham, the pace of hurdle races is also generally much slower.

I'm not saying Quevega can't win, but she faces a radically different test next week, than she has encountered previously, imo. Whiteoak still my idea of the winner of the Mares race.
 
Grey said:
I'd be dubious about backing her at all.

By the way, the race card shows all the runners off level weights except the 4-y-old. Won't Whiteoak, Chomba Womba, and maybe United, have penalties to carry?
Click to expand...

Good spot. The sets of weights that Weatherbys have published previously, including the first set at the 6-day stage incorrectly didn't have the correct penalties assigned.
 
I can see why some have backed her, her form in France is top class and her efforts in Ireland suggest she would have no trouble transferring that form to Irish/UK style racing. The ground is the big worry for me, and would not have her at the price.
 
Ladbrokes have just cut her from 7/2, 100/30 best price now.

I'd be more concerned Grasshopper if she hadn't won in Ireland albeit in a lesser grade than she'll encounter next week. The French run to me just confirms her class (though Grivette's defeat earlier in the week hasn't helped me much in terms of confidence).
 
Oscar Rebel looks very interesting for this....

She will definitely appreciate the big field and likely decent ground and will definitely be staying on well up the hill...

I don't think her form is far behind Quevega, (if at all) yet she is a mcuh bigger price...
 
Mullins on RTE today put forward Quevega as his best chance all week...imagine that is why she has been so well backed!
 
Either she's about a stone better than what she's already shown, or it will be a week of slim pickings for Mullins. Either way. I won't be paying to find out at current odds.
 
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