Racing Post Gold Cup (ie Massey-Ferguson/Caspian Caviar etc)

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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My immediate reaction to the five-day decs is that I'm underwhelmed.

I plan to do a first trawl of my figures this evening but since I put up Dashel Drasher for the King George last week I felt obliged to take 20s while it was still going. I suspect it won't even run but if they've been struggling to find a race for it they might just decide to give this a go and I be sick if they went and won it. I'm not sure if going left-handed or an undulating track will suit but hey ho...

1:50 Cheltenham | Standard Racecard | 11 December 2021 | Racing Post
 
Desert Orchid said:
My immediate reaction to the five-day decs is that I'm underwhelmed.

I plan to do a first trawl of my figures this evening but since I put up Dashel Drasher for the King George last week I felt obliged to take 20s while it was still going. I suspect it won't even run but if they've been struggling to find a race for it they might just decide to give this a go and I be sick if they went and won it. I'm not sure if going left-handed or an undulating track will suit but hey ho...

1:50 Cheltenham | Standard Racecard | 11 December 2021 | Racing Post
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Liked the introduction Alnadam got at Haydock but seems to be short enough. Farinet is unexposed, Venetia spoke well of him at a recent tour, will be off a light weight and may be shorter than 20s on Saturday.
 
Formerly of this parish, Roddy looks to have new colours now he is a sole owner (Francky Du Berlais), this horse won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen earlier this year.
 
Evening all. Its been a while since i posted not sure how long,maybe a year or more? I hope you're all in good health and hopefully still taking a few sheckels from the old enemy every now and then. If its been a while since i popped in its been even longer since I cast my eye over a race I should imagine its approaching 2 years now but I thought seen as you had a thread for this it seemed as good a place to start as any.

With probably as many negatives as positives I'd think you'd be able to make a decent enough case to take a chance on Beakstown after a flick on oddschecker I see he's 20/1 and 16's- 14's generally which seems fair enough.

Whether you look at him being A grade 2 winner as a novice hurdler from Stoney Mountain who currently has a mark of 141 or whether you take a look at his novice chase efforts it doesn't take too much imagination to think that as a chaser you could expect him to exceed his current mark of 132 ( albeit if Drasher lines up he'll be 1lb wrong in the handicap). His novice Chase efforts behind Sam spinner, Mister Fisher and Champ would all also suggest despite him hardly troubling the latter pair, would have him relatively well in here. After those efforts he was a well beaten 5th in the close brothers off a mark of 139 behind Imperial aura and Galvin who both turned out to be fairly decent and just the fact that he is 7lb lower on Saturday would have to give him a squeak of making the frame here. Whether something went amiss that day or afterwards he wasn't seen again for 600 days until reappearing at Aintree 5 weeks ago. He ran a fair enough race fading in the closing stages which is more than excusable after 600 days off. Its not that Skelton can't get one ready after that long an absence as i think recently he'd won the Greatwood with West cork after 600 days off but that in itself is a clue to the intent. If you have one that's fit and raring to go after a long absence and you consider it well handicapped you don't tend to want to blow a handicap mark winning peanuts. First time back Beakstown was running for about 8k which leads me to think he may well have needed a run to put him spot on for a bigger prize i.e this!

The notable thing about his Aintree performance was that his jumping was a lot sharper (bar one wobbler at the 12th) than back in his novice days where even at the festival he clattered the first 2 fences which only adds to his performance there. It could be a case that the best time to catch a bad jumper is when he's fresh as horses tend to jump better when the muscles are fully repaired or so Mordin once alluded to and is an opinion that over the years i came to believe had some substance. That aside we live in hope for a repeat performance of some pretty accurate fencing.

The one worry I have is his ability or lack there of to put it in at the business end (Bridle ponce Alert!) . Many times he's turned up travelling well and faded in the closing stages not what you'd really want coming into a big Cheltenham handicap. After watching the replays ( not something I've missed during my time away) the first thing i did was check back through the card to see if he was entered up in the 2 miler which probably is enough of a warning sign in itself tbh. However trying to bend reality to how I'd like it to be there is some hope he'll be able to see it out. His Grd2 novice hurdle was run over 2m4f. His novice chase performances you could argue he just was against better horses and wasn't ever handicapped well enough to beat them. The old adage of any horses gets a trip they just do so in there own time. He's a couple of years older now and you'd hope he's strengthened up since then and is more able to see his races out and yes it was more of the same for his first performance this season but after 600 days off its a realistic excuse . If the Skelton's are willing to persevere a the trip then maybe at 20/1 we should too.

This race would normally of course fall to the also rans of the Paddy power or whatever they call it these days but as D.O said he was left uninspired by the field its probably because a lot of that bunch are fairly exposed and it shouldn't take a horse to have much in hand to turn them over. Beakstown I'm sure has the potential if he jumps as well as he did at Aintree to win a decent prize. At the very least I'd expect him to be travelling like the winner 2 out, after that its in the lap of the gods I'm afraid. If he doesn't run on Saturday then he's one worth keeping an eye out for as I'd be surprised if he's not a 145 horse by the seasons end.


Best of luck gents.
 
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Well argued, Danny.

Hope you're well and good to hear from you.

I will have a sporting bet on him if he runs Saturday.

The declarations for all Saturday races should be tomorrow shouldn't they...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Nice to see you back, Danny. Hope all is well with you and yours.
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Not quite mate hence my absence from the game. Still appreciate being on the mailing list and glad to see you are still at it. Last i heard you were having trouble with your eyes mate, i take it you're on the mend ?
 
an capall said:
How is Roddy? Twould be nice to see him back.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
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Roddy is still alive and kicking, but somewhat off the radar at present. I seem to recall from a message I got from him (possibly pre-covid) that he was going through a divorce, and his great chum and racing partner Paul Fullager passed away around the same time. The combination of these events might explain his absence from the forum, whilst he addresses less trivial matters.

Insofar as the RP Gold Cup is concerned, I had a reasonably lumpy bet on Silver Hallmark earlier today; reckoning he was well-handicapped off 145 - principally via the recent exploits of Fiddlerontheroof. I don’t have a great record in the race, though.
 
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Danny said:
Not quite mate hence my absence from the game. Still appreciate being on the mailing list and glad to see you are still at it. Last i heard you were having trouble with your eyes mate, i take it you're on the mend ?
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Will PM you, Danny.
 
Danny said:
With probably as many negatives as positives I'd think you'd be able to make a decent enough case to take a chance on Beakstown after a flick on oddschecker I see he's 20/1 and 16's- 14's generally which seems fair enough.

Best of luck gents.
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Big negative Dan...Non Runner
 
I wish they would have kept the name The Massey Ferguson Gold Cup and added Sponsered by......really miss the old names.

From 1963 when Flying Wild and Bonna Notte beat Arkle until the early 90's the winners are like a list of who's who

Frodon is about the only horse since who has a fan club like those others had.

Now we got Lalor as favourite who's one and only race win in a chase came in the Arkle and it will take all of PN's magic for him to win off 3lbs higher than that win.

I can see Nicky Henderon/ Darly Jacob winning with Fusil Raffles 12/1 if they run him
 
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HawkWing said:
Liked the introduction Alnadam got at Haydock but seems to be short enough.
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Liked this horse last year. Ran really well in the Ultima until stamina became an issue. I got some 12s at the tail end of last week (very little unfortunately as Coral and Sky are horrific) and I'm hopeful he'll drift on the day.
 
Blackmore on Farinet for Venetia, with Charlie Deutsch on top-weight Cepage.

Interesting booking.
 
Grasshopper said:
Blackmore on Farinet for Venetia, with Charlie Deutsch on top-weight Cepage.

Interesting booking.
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There are formlines which suggest Farient cannot beat Silver Hallmark and with that horse available at 8s I'll probably end up backing him. I cannot have the fav and my take on Midnight Shadow from before the Paddy Power, that he never hits the line hard, remains.
 
As a Silver Hallmark backer, I hope you're right, Euro.

An interesting booking all the same though. Farinet surely has a much better chance than Cepage, and it's odd that the stable jockey doesn't take the ride. Maybe he can't do 10-2?
 
I've done Farinet and dostal Phil.
I thought the weight could have been too low for charlie so I dont know what to think now.
Dostal phil needs not to leave it as late as last time.
 
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