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sunybay

sunybay

At the Start
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May 4, 2003
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Kingsbarns 2/1F
I was wrong opposing Camelot in this race last season but isnt Kingsbarns one of the lays of the season

the race he won didnt look anything special and the time was slow
they have a good record in this race and has supplemneted this one having Battle Of MArengo in the race

but with horse like
Steleer 113p
First Cornerstone 111p
Trading Leather 109+
Van Der Neer 102P


I think this one is one to oppose
 
Certainly looks a better field than Camelot faced and is there as much hype about Kingsbarns? I thought Mars was their Derby horse?

I really liked Trading Leather's attitude at Newmarket but can't help feel a small field and probable lack of pace will be against him. If you could guarantee a decent clip I would back him for this.
 
I think that's well said, David.

If he wins, good luck to them and fair play for supplementing him, because history is against them.
 
Steeler and Trading Leather are solid enough. Certainly better quality than the muck Camelot raced against last year (and this come to think of it)
 
With most of the field.

It's a common enough feature at this time of year for big stables to pitch a late season maiden winner into backend group races, and it's a common enough dilemma for punters to decide how to evaluate them. Connections assume their horse can improve, but the chances are that something else in the field will also achieve a personal best.
 
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Very likely I'll back the wrong one between Trading Leather and Steeler.

Van Der Neer been impressive is weakish company, but not really bred for this sort of test so soon or shaped as if in need of it. Interesting that he runs though when Montiridge or Toronado would have looked stronger contenders on paper.
 
Word of warning lads. The magic sign have not priced the race yet. If they are shortest this is a lump job, mark my words.
 
They have him at 6/4. Don't really get why you would ever make anything a lump job essentially on the back of somebody else's opinion.
 
Rarely bet ante-post, but backed Steeler earlier this week - the clincher was Mark Johnston talking down his chances.
 
between 2005 and 2011 8 of his 17 juveniles who scored on their debuts as odds of 6-4 or under went on to win at the highest level

this season (so far) only three meet the criteria Mars flying the flag (who was used as a pacemaker lto) and kingsbarns

in the last 12 years their have been 20 runners who have won at least 3 group 1 victories and 11 were introduced at at 2 yrs and all justified odds of 6-4 or shorter first time out

whether kingsbarns is another is debatable but it could be significant he relies on one horse (battle of merano would have had a reasonable chance on form) trading leather the most likely winner but may need better ground the others useful but not outstanding
 
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davidjohnson said:
They have him at 6/4. Don't really get why you would ever make anything a lump job essentially on the back of somebody else's opinion.
Click to expand...

They can have him at 6/4, I'm on at 5/1 when Steeler and Trading Leather were shorter. It may well turn out that O'briens 2yo colts are an average bunch but the move for this horse has been serious.
 
Race isn't exactly overflowing with talent. Trading Leather looks a tough cookie and could go close if it's stamina over speed that wins the day but this O'Brien horse looks the part.

Despite being green he's traveled well quickened and put his race to bed very quickly. Not a great race but that doesn't matter

They will have a very good idea how he'll compare to this lot through his homework now they know he can do it on the track.

The best guide to his chance has to be the market and the money just keeps coming in.

I definitely wouldn't lay him, loads of other 6/4 shots out there take a chance with.
 
One question about the favourite is why he wasn't originally entered for the race. Given their normal block entry system, it seems a little odd that this fellow was supplemented after coming out of the woodwork. Can't remember the last time they had to do that for a race like this at the end of the season.
 
Kingsbarns - sh1t price but can't rule out
Steeler - not on this ground
Trading Leather - ? on ground
Van Der Neer - will it stay?

?'s over these and the fav may well hose up but i'd rather back First Cornerstone at 13.0
 
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