Ratings for Me

R

Ratings for Me

Amateur Rider
Joined
Dec 8, 2024
Messages
40
Location
Lincolnshire
Chasers Age Win Percentage

U.K 2miles - Handicap - 2020 to 2024
4 to 14 years old
Criteria column is the age of the horse.

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Please Note; I have used HRB to get this info. When I put in different handicap marks for example 0-115 the percentages vary. Because HRB is a commercial website I'm restricting the amount I put on.
 
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For clarifacation I put the same data into ChatGPT which is an AI (artificial inteligence site) and it gave info on an older study which was as follows;
The data you've provided outlines the number of bets, wins, and win percentages for handicap chasers in the UK, categorized by age. While I don't have access to the exact dataset you're referencing, I can provide some context and comparisons based on available information.

Generally, in UK handicap chases, horses aged between 6 and 9 tend to perform well. For instance, a study analyzing handicap chases from October 2015 to November 2021 found that six-year-old horses had a higher strike rate compared to other age groups, with an Actual vs Expected (A/E) ratio of 0.88 and a small loss to Starting Price (SP), indicating competitive performance.

Additionally, trends from specific races, such as the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham, show that 9 out of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9, suggesting a strong performance from horses within this age bracket.


Your data indicates a peak win percentage at age 6 (19.46%), with a gradual decline in win percentages for older horses. This aligns with the general understanding that younger horses, particularly those between 6 and 9 years old, often have higher success rates in handicap chases.

While I cannot verify the exact figures you've provided without access to the specific dataset, the trends you've noted are consistent with broader patterns observed in UK handicap chases. For more detailed and specific statistics, consulting official databases such as the British Horseracing Authority's ratings database may provide more comprehensive insights.
 
Hope everyone had a good Christmas. Happy New year and lets hope there are plenty of winners to share out.
I've had a nice time but was eager to get back to finding the odd winner. Lots of research and not too much alchohol.
 
Looking at racing on Sunday I'm hopeful that we might get some racing. The BHA report the following on behalf of Chepstow; Left handed track. Stiff and undulating.

Weather

1.2mm Tuesday; 13mm Wednesday; 0mm Thursday; 0mm Friday temp dropped to -3* overnight; Forecast - Saturday cold & dry with sunny spells (3*) until some wintery showers - sleet/snow (2-3cm), from late afternoon, turning to heavy rain before midnight. Temp's to improve overnight into Sunday, Misty / light rain early AM, light showers with sunny intervals for racing, temps to reach 10*/11*.

The class 3 event at 1:45 has attracted 5 runners.

1. BALLYBENTRAGH (IRE)

  • Form: 1226-8 → Solid hurdles form; respectable handicap return.
  • Chase Profile: Positive; expected to improve.
  • Key Points:
    • Fitness: 36 days since last run (1 point).
    • Long-Term Form: Consistent in hurdles (likely 3 points).
    • Draw: N/A in NH races.
    • Market Position: Unclear, but should be competitive.
Estimated Points: 5–7

​
🐎 2. ILLICO DE COTTE (FR)

  • Form: 2P2133-13 → Winning chase bow, consistent performer.
  • Chase Profile: Improving chaser with potential.
  • Key Points:
    • Fitness: 35 days since last run (1 point).
    • Long-Term Form: Solid, improving chaser (likely 3 points).
    • Market Position: Likely in the top 3 (2–3 points).
Estimated Points: 6–7

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🐎 3. LIVIN ON LUCO (IRE)

  • Form: 2F1222-16 → Fortuitous chase win, struggled at Cheltenham.
  • Chase Profile: Capable but inconsistent.
  • Key Points:
    • Fitness: 22 days since last run (2 points).
    • Long-Term Form: Mixed; decent place percentage (2 points).
    • Market Position: May not be in the top 3 (1–2 points).
Estimated Points: 5–6

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🐎 4. MAHLAND (IRE)

  • Form: 58221-7 → Progressive over hurdles, struggled on return.
  • Chase Profile: Point winner, potential to improve over fences.
  • Key Points:
    • Fitness: 23 days since last run (2 points).
    • Long-Term Form: Progressive over hurdles (2–3 points).
    • Market Position: Market stance unclear (1–2 points).
Estimated Points: 5–6

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🐎 5. PHANTOM GETAWAY (IRE)

  • Form: 135/8PP-2P → Mixed chase form, bounce-back needed.
  • Chase Profile: Breathing operation, inconsistency a concern.
  • Key Points:
    • Fitness: 32 days since last run (1 point).
    • Long-Term Form: Mixed chase/hurdles record (1–2 points).
    • Market Position: Likely outside top 3 (1 point).
Estimated Points: 3–4

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🏆 Summary & Rankings:

  1. ILLICO DE COTTE (FR) – 6–7 points ✅
  2. BALLYBENTRAGH (IRE) – 5–7 points ✅
  3. LIVIN ON LUCO (IRE) – 5–6 points
  4. MAHLAND (IRE) – 5–6 points
  5. PHANTOM GETAWAY (IRE) – 3–4 points
 
Going/Tracks

Standard

Track will undergo full decompaction prior to this fixture

Stalls:5f - Centre Remainder – Inside

I don’t really look at All Weather but thought I would do this for a jolly.



Using a simple formula of……… =(1/BFSP)/(1/Number of runners in a race) [PRB1] the answer is then times by itself [PRB2] which is more accurate according to the experts.

Taking the result of the total races that each horse has run in and looking at the averages plus the average for all weather races the following as a guide to the outcome of the race. The higher the average the better the chance of that horse. I accept no responsibility for anyone who uses the figures mentioned they are only a guide.

HorsePRB2 OverallPRB2 AW
Alyara0.3751.037
Baulac0.2790.589
Bishops Glory1.0721.220
Coconut Bay1.4651.191
Falcon0.9811.371
Inexplicable1.7931.861
Shaka1.4921.769
Tenyata2.102.603
Tilsworth Turf0.4220.011
Twistaline 2.2872.505
Upperhand0.6080.675
Van Zant1.6842.200

Quick Observations Based data:​

  • Top Performers (PRB2 Overall & AW): Tenyata, Twistaline, and Van Zant have notably higher numbers.
  • Weak Performers: Tilsworth Turf and Baulac seem significantly weaker based on PRB2 scores.
  • AW Specialists: Inexplicable, Shaka, and Van Zant have strong AW PRB2 ratings, suggesting they might excel on this surface.
Please note I have rushed this and there maybe errors but I have not got time to Check through everything.

I will have a bet but its likely to be a small win and a larger place on Betfair.
 
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May look better

Alyara 0.375 PRB2 overall and 1.037 PRB2AW

Baulac 0.279 PRB2 overall and 0.589 PRB2 AW

Bishops Glory 1.072 PRB2 overall and 1.220 PRB2 AW

Coconut Bay 1.465 PRB2 overall and 1.191 PRB2 AW

Falcon 0.981 PRB2 overall and 1.371 PRB2 AW

Inexplicable 1.793 PRB2 overall and 1.861 PRB2 AW

Shaka 1.492 overall and 1.769 PRB2 AW

Tenyata 2.10 PRB2 overall and 2.603

Tilsworth Turf 0.422 PRB2 overall and 0.011

Twistaline 2.287 PRB2 overall and 2.505

Upperhand 0.608 PRB2 overall and 0.675

Van Zant 1.684 PRB2 overall and 2.20
 

Quick Observations Based data:​

  • Top Performers (PRB2 Overall & AW): Tenyata, Twistaline, and Van Zant have notably higher numbers. Twistaline 2nd 12.29 pl 3.43
  • Weak Performers: Tilsworth Turf and Baulac seem significantly weaker based on PRB2 scores.
  • AW Specialists: Inexplicable, Shaka, and Van Zant have strong AW PRB2 ratings, suggesting they might excel on this surface. Shaka wins 9.63 pl 2.90
  • Coconut Bay 3rd
  • Alyara 4th
  • Non Runner Inexplicable
 
simmo said:
I can't help but feel that according more points to horses because they are in the top 3 betting wise makes this a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.
Click to expand...
This was a brief overview of the card from the previous day, intended as an initial snapshot. A more detailed analysis and refined ratings would typically follow. However, I’m currently reflecting on whether this platform is the right fit for sharing my work.
 
Ratings for Me said:
……… However, I’m currently reflecting on whether this platform is the right fit for sharing my work…..
Click to expand...

Depends what you want. If it’s just to show how clever you are, then it’s not the place for you. If you want serious debate about your methodology and selections then fire away.
 
Ratings for Me said:
This was a brief overview of the card from the previous day, intended as an initial snapshot. A more detailed analysis and refined ratings would typically follow. However, I’m currently reflecting on whether this platform is the right fit for sharing my work.
Click to expand...

I gotta be honest I'm struggling to get my head around anything you're putting on. There was something about AI. Then there is something about ages of racehorses and automatically I see something that's completely flawed or not even half done.

When you spout a figure about the horses in the Johnny Henderson saying 7-9yo have won 9 out of the last 12 and say its a positive. Firstly what percentage of horses in the race were aged between 7 and 9 ? What prices were they ? If the first 10 in the betting were between 7 and 9 years old and they made up 90% of the field then it's a negative not a positive. There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

As Barjon has basically said you might well be challenged on here especially as you more modern way of doing things would be well out of most of our comfort zones but maybe you might learn a thing or two from a few old dogs. You also might learn that if a lot of people are struggling to see what you're doing then perhaps you can explain it in a more palatable manner. The problem might not be the platform but try another platform and if it doesn't go well there then look elsewhere for the problem.

Just as another point there are very simple straight forward reasons why horses of that age group would win most handicap Chases most horses wouldn't start chasing until 6yo from 6-9 they'll be un exposed for a period and try all different tracks and trips. At 10yo there is no physical improvement to come and they have been around the block a bit and the handicapper generally knows all about them at that point and it's a case of losing a few and hoping to get to a winnable mark before picking a race up. That's just general consensus.
 
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Hi Danny, I think your right its the wrong place for me. This is what the ratings would have looked like had I put them on. It was a bit disjointed at first (it was Christmas though) but the age of a horse is important when making an assessment of chances. I'm not sure about people getting their heads round my work though. I'm in my 70s but try to keep learning. I didn't realise that I was getting up peoples noses so much though. :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: . I will leave now but wish you all well.

Boolamore Classic (IRE)

13.400285

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Reagrove Lord (IRE)

12.732428

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Ideal De Romay (FR)

11.861356

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You Say Its Over (IRE)

11.709227​

Blended Stealth

11.647874​

Rob Roy Macgregor (IRE)

11.515721​

Teddy Mac

10.025586​

Toucan Sam

9.7387799​

Gold Ring

7.3687433​

Ave

11.111111​

Medn

11.647874​

stdev

1.8134357​






















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This game can be incredibly simple, you put up your reasoning, then you actually put up names of horses and the times they are running and where, and I, as someone reading your thread, can actually put a bet on and benefit. Not being funny, but these are important things as a gambler.
 
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