Raven's Pass

I think you'd need to be 8 or 9 lb ahead of your BHA mark to be winning a race like the Cambridgeshire. The Lockinge winner Creachadoir seems to be rated just 118 (not sure whether he's been reassessed or not) but I wouldn't be in a hurry to back him if he was fit off 117.
 
he is a poor G1 winner though

an average G1 winner should be winning a cambridgeshire off 117

we might as well give the race Group status if not

I know what you are saying..but imo it doesn't say much for our Group 1 winners if they can't win handicaps off 117
 
CHECKIT was nowhere near a group 1 horse ("won" a very poor Group 2 abroad..equaivalent to a listed race here) and she finished 3rd off a mark of 110

Gatwick just a handicapper was only beaten 3 lengths off 107

My Paris..another handicapper lost by 5 length off 105 mark

these were not Group 1 winners by any stretch of the imagination.


so I am not sure why you need a 130 horse to win off a mark of 117..shouldn't realy need 13lb in hand imo
 
You say Checkit was nowhere near a group 1 horse, but he was very quirky and was a very close 6th in a Dubai Duty Free. He was talented on a going day.

Gatwick was flattered by his mark.
 
I dont know if you compile you ratings,


the Cambridgshire , Ebor and other big hcps are full of horses with the level to win group races, plotted in low marks to win this and you have to have plenty in hand on the official mark to win .



Pipedreamer is a 120 horse for me, he won last year in a 102 OR and he posted in my figures 116+

Formal Decree , 120+ in the day on OR 97


Blue Monday 115+ OR99, later proved a 120+ horse

Spanish Don RPR 109 OR95




and many more
 
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i wasn't talking about any Group winners..I was talking about Group 1 winners..

If Duke of Marmalade ran in the cambridgeshire off 120...would he win it?
If Henrythenavigator ran off 120..would he win?
 
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EC1 said:
If Duke of Marmalade ran in the cambridgeshire off 120...would he win it? If Henrythenavigator ran off 120..would he win?
Click to expand...

Not if there was a Pipedreamer with 18 lbs in hand in the field, I think is the point.
 
the Cambridgshire , Ebor and other big hcps are full of horses with the level to win group races, plotted in low marks to win this and you have to have plenty in hand on the official mark to win .

can't agree with that..these horses you say were plotted. later became group 1 horses they were not group 1 at the time they ran in the cambs

Halling was not a Group 1 winner running off a low mark..he was a bloody good handicapper at the time he won cambs..likewise Pipedreamer...these horses developed after the cambs.

if you are basing your 117-130 thing on these improving horses then I feel it's a little flawed

its took Pipedreamer another year to go from a 110 horse to a 117 horse..he was a 117 horse when he won the cambs was he?
 
According to your argument Gareth...a Group 1 winner would have to be a 140 to win a cambridgeshire...because a clevely disguised Group 1 winner had been plying it's trade in 0-90 0-100 handicaps and gets a mark of 93..like halling

I think if Halling had been a G1 horse he would have been running in them..not the cambs..he improved..like lots of racehorses do

you think halling was a 125 horse when he had a mark of 93?
 
Pipedreamer won off 102. Went up to 110 after. Therefore according to the official handicapper he had 8lbs in hand.

Duke of Marmalade is currently officially rated 127. Running off 120, he'd only have 7lbs in hand.
 
The best DOM of this year in last year race in a OR mark of 120, would have been clearly beaten by Pipedremer.
 
How hard is it to understand that Duke of Marmalade only wins the theoretical race if no other horse in the race has more than 7lbs in hand of their true rating?
 
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