Raven's Pass

but Suny reckons that every winner of the cambs has got to have 14lbs in hand..it can't just apply to G1 winners or it isn't logical

what Suny seems not to grasp is that the winner of the cambs has not been a G1 winner at the time of the cambs..such as Halling improved later..

it's got bugger all to do with understanding the handicap system..it has to do with understanding that horses improve...Suny has come up with a "rule" that only Suny understands with this weird 14lb business

it also seems as if the thoeretical G1 winner would have no improvemnet at all in that argument?

I just find it bizarre that a horse has to have 14lbs in hand to win the cambs..surprised no one else challenged the strange suggestion of needing 14lbs in hand???
 
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EC1,

Suny rates his races himself (and seems to do fairly well out of it); he has quoted several examples of Cambridgeshire winners who have posted ratings on the day which are well in advance of their official marks, and he has posted those figures within the thread. I don't know if a horse would need to be a stone well in in order to win a Cambridgeshire, but in a fiercely competitive handicap of that nature, it would be expected that the winner would need to be significantly well in to triumph in an average renewal; that might be 9lbs or 11lb or (as Suny suggested) 13lb; the figure is arguably arbitrary, but the concept is sound. You don't genuinely believe that every runner in a big handicap performs at or below its rating, do you?

The horses who won the Cambridgeshire and went on to Group race success can't simply have improved after the race ~ they were well on their way to that level of form when the race arrived, having mostly been slightly late developers. The fact that the Cambridgeshire (and races like the Ebor etc) are early closing races mean that shrewd trainers can aim group class horses at them off a decent handicapper's mark. If a horse was capable of showing group class form, that will most probably be underplayed when it defeats weaker opposition. My opinion, and that of Timeform, is that Pipedreamer's win in last year's race was "more than good enough to win quite a few pattern races". Those are Timeform's words btw. It's silly to suggest that Pipedreamer was only a 102 horse on the day. For the record, I doubt whether dual G1 winner Cockney Rebel would have managed to win the race off a mark as low as 115, which was his mark prior to the Guineas, and Timeform (and the Racing Post) agrees.
 
Rory

Suny has generalised by saying a 117 horse would need to be a 130 horse to win it..I don't buy it

The horses who won the Cambridgeshire and went on to Group race success can't simply have improved after the race

why on earth not?..do you think horses don't improve?..the whole game is about improvement...it took Pipedreamer a year to make into a 117 horse for a start

I'm amazed someone can make such a sweeping statement as Suny has and not one person here questioned it.

There are many horses that have won the Cambs which were expeosed handicappers...they didn't suddenly run a stone above their best to win

it's just a big handicap..it's not the championship of Britain or owt.
 
EC1 said:
Rory

Suny has generalised by saying a 117 horse would need to be a 130 horse to win it..I don't buy it

The horses who won the Cambridgeshire and went on to Group race success can't simply have improved after the race

why on earth not?..do you think horses don't improve?..the whole game is about improvement...it took Pipedreamer a year to make into a 117 horse for a start

I'm amazed someone can make such a sweeping statement as Suny has and not one person here questioned it.

There are many horses that have won the Cambs which were expeosed handicappers...they didn't suddenly run a stone above their best to win

it's just a big handicap..it's not the championship of Britain or owt.
Click to expand...

A three year old needs to improve significantly just to stand still at four EC1 ~ you don't have to buy Suny's opinion but you are very dismissive of it, even though various people have pointed out that it has merit in at least a generic sense. Once again, Sunybay, Timeform, the Racing Post and myself all believe that Pipedreamer was at the very least 10lbs ahead of his mark when he won the Cambridgeshire. You appear to be the only person to call this nonsense. Pipedreamer has gone on to win in better company but it's enormously debatable if he's improved more than a handful of pounds in the interim.

Of course not all winners of competitive handicaps are group horses in waiting but unless they are flattered by the way the race is run, they MUST be ahead of their marks. It's not even a controversial opinion ~ it's common sense.
 
As everyone knows my english not very good, and I imagine thats the cause of some people here are not understanding my opinion here.


The big handicap with plenty of money on offer make some trainers to plot the race with group horses hidden as handicappers.


The fact , as Rory says, that the weights are made well in advance can produce you are in a OR with or without a penalty and you are running well in.


Pipedremear or Swinbanks horse were group horses running in low marks.


The only way of a 125 horse can win a hcp in an OR of 117, is that most of the field are out of the hcp, if it is a normal edition with all the horses in their correct marks that horse will be beaten.



Any horse able to win a Cambridgshire in an OR 117 is badly entered by his trainer because he would win the Queen Elizabeth 7 days earlier:)
 
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bugger

I've just spent 10 minutes writing a response..pressed submit and the bloody log in box came up

a quick summary

Pipedreamer was a 107 horse imo when he won the Cambs..I would rate him off Yarquis..a very consistent horse who is still rated the same now as he was then...a ready made measuring stick..if you like handicapping in this way.

so PD was 5lb above his mark...a G1 winner off 117 could also run 5 above his mark..as he may well have the capability of improving too...correct?

the years when no horse like PD runs..and we get the sh hd sh hd winner..won by a horse that has only won off a mark he won before..G1 off 117 will win..as again he will run 117 or more

the years when cambs isn't up to scratch...117 horse wins

so a G1 wins about 8/10 times imo

so when I questioned Suny saying ...blanket fashion...that you would need to be a 130 horse to win off 117 ..I think querying that is logical..

as for rating PD a 112 or 115 or 117 horse on his cambs run..I'm sorry..but thats total nonsense..he did not win easily..he kicked on 2 out and held them by a length..I remember it well..I backed it..he is worth a length better than the field...I am being generous alloting him 107

it might appear I'm a bit hammer shaft...but I know a barmy statement when I see one...and the 117 -130 stuff is pure barmy to me.

My handicapping is as good as the next mans by the way..why I have to take someone elses word for handicapping just because a few members here think one of their own is superior in some way...I'm not sure

it's not rocket science

I do me own speed figures an all...every now and then like..do you? ;)



it's a good defence I have put up is't it?;)
 
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If you think Pipe Dreamer run to 107 in the Cambridgeshire and Duke Of Marmalade is a 130 this season, you and me see horse racing with a different TV.
 
I think Halling was a Group class animal on the day of the Cambridgshire.I can remember one of the Ch 4 crew pointing out how little the race took out of him.
 
the Racing Post and myself all believe that Pipedreamer was at the very least 10lbs

thats not exactly correct Rory..if you are talking about RPR's...they are about 10lb on average higher than the OHR..by giving a RPR of 117 they are saying the OHR is more like 107

I like that figure
 
If you think Pipe Dreamer run to 107 in the Cambridgeshire and Duke Of Marmalade is a 130 this season, you and me see horse racing with a different TV.


firstly I don't recall giving DOM a rating of 130 on this thread

I am talking about OHR..not RPR or Timeform...we are talking about handicap marks are we not?

horses running above their alloted mark?
 
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that other post must have been a good reply..nowt back yet:D

unless one of you is composing a long one telling how wrong I am

I actually think we are at cross purposes with the OHR v Timeform/RPR stuff myself
 
If you don't think that Pipedreamer had plenty in hand EC1, then we are indeed at cross purposes ~ again to quote Timeform "Rarely, in such a supposedly competitive handicap, can layers have been resigned to their fate at such an early stage"; it was their view (and mine) that Pipedreamer had his opposition absolutely shot to pieces (apologies for the expression) fully 3 furlongs from home. His margin of victory wasn't huge, but victory was in absolutely no doubt for a huge proportion of the race. That simply doesn't happen unless the winner steals the race or is different class.

This game is indeed about opinions, but we have no evidence (including your frequent betting threads) to suggest that you are in a better class than Timeform in terms of race analysis. I respect your opinion, but you are flying in the face of logic here (as you are on a number of subjects).
 
rorydelargy said:
If you don't think that Pipedreamer had plenty in hand EC1, then we are indeed at cross purposes ~ again to quote Timeform "Rarely, in such a supposedly competitive handicap, can layers have been resigned to their fate at such an early stage"; it was their view (and mine) that Pipedreamer had his opposition absolutely shot to pieces (apologies for the expression) fully 3 furlongs from home. His margin of victory wasn't huge, but victory was in absolutely no doubt for a huge proportion of the race. That simply doesn't happen unless the winner steals the race or is different class.
Click to expand...

Pipedreamer`s win was reminiscent of Beachamp Pilot. He was another 120 animal who ran off 98 or 99 in the Cambrideshire.
 
rorydelargy said:
If you don't think that Pipedreamer had plenty in hand EC1, then we are indeed at cross purposes ~ again to quote Timeform "Rarely, in such a supposedly competitive handicap, can layers have been resigned to their fate at such an early stage"; it was their view (and mine) that Pipedreamer had his opposition absolutely shot to pieces (apologies for the expression) fully 3 furlongs from home. His margin of victory wasn't huge, but victory was in absolutely no doubt for a huge proportion of the race. That simply doesn't happen unless the winner steals the race or is different class.

This game is indeed about opinions, but we have no evidence (including your frequent betting threads) to suggest that you are in a better class than Timeform in terms of race analysis. I respect your opinion, but you are flying in the face of logic here (as you are on a number of subjects).
Click to expand...


I watched him closely Rory, if you check back I tipped/backed him on here or on TRF..on the cambs thread..just in case I'm thought to be lying.... he did steal the race but he was only holding on late on..thats my view...just as relevant as yours and Timeforms.

Why should you need "evidence" Rory?..if you did..you will see that over the last few years on here and TRF I tipped many winners on those big race threads..which one year included the 1000+2000+Derby winner...Motivators year to be exact...I shouldn't have to bring that up but seeing as you use that as a criterion for judging my knowledge of race reading..I have anyway. Timeform don't have a great strike rate or profit margin..but you didn't use that to knock them in the same way.

I don't fly in the face of logic tbh..the statement on this thread by Suny is not logical..the statement that a Group 1 horse...in fact any horse always needs 13lb in hand to win the Cambs is not factual or logical...even if a horse once did have that in hand..Suny suggested it was requirement for every cambs winner to have that edge.

I would agree that I don't follow the crowd much if I think the crowd is wrong..and to be fair..on this forum I don't ever recall one person agreeing with me in circumstances such as these..my view of that is that there is a certain pack mentality at play and that people are comfy when others agree with them..so they just jump on the bandwagon of agreement...as Euronymous has done above..with that ridiculously odd refernce to Beauchamp Pilot???

Pipedreamer`s win was reminiscent of Beachamp Pilot. He was another 120 animal who ran off 98 or 99 in the Cambrideshire.

is that the same 120 animal that came out 2 weeks later and lost to a 108 horse...then came out again two weeks later again and was hammered by a 105 horse...eventually he won a listed on the AW beating a 102 horse...the season after that failed in every race from listed through Group 3.

120 horse..mmm. ...of course he was

Now... If I had posted that BP was a 120 horse I would have folk queueing up on here to tell me I didn't understand Handicapping...how many have said same about Euronymous??

Why is it that others can make totally inaccurate statements..without a dickie bird said..and yet folk come on passing judgement on what I know or don't know when I am deemed to have posted nonsense....it is biased I'm afraid..and tbh that is a little disappointing as I read and respect most of what is posted on here..even if I don't agree with it all....I don't see why my ability to put winners up has bugger all to do with owt..and tbh..I'm at least in the top half on here for putting winners up...if that is so important to making a judgement about me...so why the put down?

I was thinking more along the lines of not arguing with him winning the Eclipse on his next start in England

would that be the next start 9 MONTHS & 3 RACES AT NAD EL SHEBA later in this country Luke?:rolleyes:

come on...Halling improved with every race he ran in at that time..it doesn't take a genuis to plot his improvement forward in time and look 8 months later at what he turned into...yer having a laugh if you are trying to say he didn't have time or racecourse experience between Cambs & Eclipse...your post suggests it was Cambs one minute - eclipse next..inaccurate.

There are some terribly flawed arguments being put up here..I'm winning about 5-0 at the moment:D
 
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EC1 said:
no comebacks yet...that must be a bloody good reply ;)

enter stage left...5 posts ripping up me homework ;)
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Its not a competition...

I think everything anyone would add would be repeating the same things over again. You have your opinion which your entitled to hold, the vast majority (everyone else?) seems to disagree. Both seem unlikely to change their opinions.
 
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