Rite of Passage

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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Tom Segal is of the opinion he would win a Group 1 on the flat.

While not subscribing to this view, I have not been more impressed by a novice hurdler this season, and this is backed up by his facile win in the November handicap.

Has Weld confirmed what race he's likely to run in? If he goes the 2m5 route, he's ridiculously good value at 5 or 6s. I think the UK form for this race is muddling, and he would be very, very hard to beat.
 
I've already backed him for the Neptune, but not to any size. Only guessing he'll go there though.
 
Isn't there a danger that this one is already too short? He didn't achieve much in Bumpers, hasn't achieved much over hurdles, and appears to be a 5/1 chance on the back of a win in a Flat handicap, and Tom Segal reckoning he could be Group class on the level.

Seems to me he is one to watch drop in price like a stone, and then oppose.
 
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I backed him a while ago, ahead of his appearance, but I'd tend to agree with Hamm that if he lines up at this sort of price he'll be worth an investment.
 
I was quite taken with him on his hurdles debut as well - looked all class.

Mullins introduced a smart type in Blackstairmountain at Punchestown yesterday - not fancied first time out on ground he would not really enjoy but skated in.

Imagine Rite Of Passage will take on Dunguib in the Deloitte and then a decision will be made where he will go?
 
If they take on Dunguib that would be a race and a half and finally a clue to how gond either really are.
 
if you look at the Leopardstown race, where even after being hampered and pulled up near the finishing line, the time of the race was only 1.2 secs slower than the champion hurdle where they went a proper pace and the winner was ridden out to the line. Considering how well he jumped, given the obviously strong pace, on his debut and his performance in the november hcp giving weight and a thumping to Donnas palm, I find it hard to see him beaten wherever he turns up at Cheltenham
 
Wall E said:
I find it hard to see him beaten wherever he turns up at Cheltenham
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Me too. I think bar a fall he is the winner of the 2m5 race now - I can't see anything getting close to him.

Is he definitely going to take on Dunguib in the Deloitte? Wouldn't be in favour of that.
 
Hamm said:
Me too. I think bar a fall he is the winner of the 2m5 race now - I can't see anything getting close to him.

Is he definitely going to take on Dunguib in the Deloitte? Wouldn't be in favour of that.
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I hope not, if beats or fightens the life out of Dunguib..the price will really crumble:(
 
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Wall E said:
I find it hard to see him beaten wherever he turns up at Cheltenham
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Hamm said:
Me too. I think bar a fall he is the winner of the 2m5 race now - I can't see anything getting close to him.
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Rite of Passage is clearly a promising horse but for the life of me I can't see what he has done to justify the above and, of course, Tom Segal has gone even further out on a limb by suggesting the horse is a superstar in the making.

Off the top of my head, Peddlers Cross, Quantitativeeasing and Finian's Rainbow are three Neptune entries who should be alongside Rite Of Passage in the market but are in fact at considerably longer odds.

Finian's Rainbow was just pipped on desperate ground in a Grade One at Newbury following a mistake at the last. On better ground, I don't think the winner that day, Reve De Sivola, would have seen which way he went.

Quantitativeeasing has bumper form comparable to that of Rite Of Passage and has easily landed a couple of novice hurdles at long odds-on.

Peddlers Cross was a talented bumper performer who has taken to hurdles in great style. Although it's hard to put a precise figure on what he achieved at Haydock I'd be fairly confident he faced a much stiffer task than Rite Of Passage at Leopardstown and accomplished it in better style.

What is it about Rite Of Passage that puts him so far ahead of these horses (among others)?

Or put it another way: what did Rite Of Passage show at Leopardstown that entitles him to 5/1 favouritism for a competitive Neptune Hurdle that Alaivan didn't show on his debut over hurdles following which he was made 8/1 (or thereabouts) fav for a less-competitive Triumph Hurdle?

I've nothing at all against the horse. But his good form on the level coupled with an easy win at 4/9 on his hurdling debut doesn't entitle him to be as short as he is.
 
Quantitativeeasing has bumper form comparable to that of Rite Of Passage
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Come on, now. Rite of Passage was an 8 length winner of the Leopardstown November Handicap off a mark of 88. Donna's Palm was the horse in second, receiving 2 lbs. QE's win in a bumper is not in the same league.

I would have more respect for the achievements of the other pair you mention, and I agree with you that Peddlers Cross's win at Haydock is an impressive piece of form.
 
Grey said:
Come on, now. Rite of Passage was an 8 length winner of the Leopardstown November Handicap off a mark of 88. Donna's Palm was the horse in second, receiving 2 lbs. QE's win in a bumper is not in the same league.
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Going on Flat form when determining potential Festival winners will stick you in the poor house very quickly. Look no further than Kasbah Bliss in last years Stayers - they said he couldn't get beat, because he'd won a Group race on the level.

Rites of Passage is a false price, in a very competitive race, imo.
 
I agree with you, Grasshopper, but that was not the point I was making, which was that if you want to compare form on the level there is no way Quantitativeeasing's bumper win in any way matches Rite Of Passage's flat form.

The reason, btw, that I have more respect for Finian's Rainbow and Peddlers Cross than for QE is that their form has been in Graded races, over hurdles. Rite Of Passage has not yet produced their level of form, and nor has QE.
 
I'd have to agree with Grassy here. If you take out his November handicap win, he's come 3rd in the Champion bumper and won a maiden hurdle. Hardly the stuff that makes him a shoe in. Admittedly his November handicap form reads well but as Grassy eluded to, flat form doesn't always translate directly to jumps.
 
I'd normally echo Grasshoppers point and it is extremely valid as a general rule. Every now and again, however, you get a horse that does something on the flat that makes you think it will be just as good over obstacles. Rite of Passage gives me those vibes. In saying that, he'd be running in the two miler, whether or not that means meeting Dunguib.
 
If he was capable of winning a Group 1 on the flat, wouldn't Weld be winning a Group 1 on the flat with him?
 
rorydelargy said:
Every now and again, however, you get a horse that does something on the flat that makes you think it will be just as good over obstacles.
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Fair comment.

Sea The Stars could probably have got up to win a Hexham maiden hurdle, if I'm being brutally honest. :D
 
I dont think he is much of a price, but his debut was fantastic and has very good flat and bumper form,
 
Good, but not great. Did not run up to standard at cheltenham last year, and speed horses are forever exposed up that long, arduous hill. Another horse for the pink betfair button at cheltenham in my book. Quantitative easing will do him in a battle, more experience and stays better.
 
I loved the way Rite Of Passage hurdled on his debut...looked a nature. Also likely that way he quickened up after the last when just squeezed for an effort. While flat form has to be taken with a pinch of salt, it can still be significant and he was improving rapidly on the level.
 
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