Road to Cheltenham Festival 'Specials'...

Steve T

Steve T

Journeyman
Joined
May 3, 2003
Messages
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It's been a long road already, I know, but these are areas that I like to try and get involved with - 1) it gives you an interest in every race, at some level & 2) difference in opinion between bookmakers can often leave a little value floating around...

I'll cite the "Number of Irish Trained Winners at the Festival" in both the former and the later for me. As covered on another thread at some point, there was around an 85% book on this, still available at around 90 odd %, but the standout for me has always been over 6.5 Irish winners. Involved at 2/1, 7/4 and at a lesser extent 11/8, I'll be hoping to see plenty of the Irish tricolour in evidence..

The other special I was interested in was Nicky Henderson winners, but strangely the defection of Riverside Theatre from the Ryanair has shortened the price of over 2.5 from 5/6 to 8/11, although it does now mean you can bet 6/4 under 3 and 8/11 over 2.5..

There are many more out there, the going on the opening day, total favourite points, distances etc...etc... I will dig around and try to come up with a few more difference of opinions between bookies...
 
Cheltenham Festival Winning Distances

2010 - Good/Soft, Good & Soft
26 Races - Total - 94.7 (Average 3.64 per race)

2009 - Good/Soft
26 - Total 118.75 (4.57)

2008 - Good / Soft & Good
25 - Total 113 (4.52)

2007 - Soft & Good / Soft
24 - Total 72.7 (3.03)

2006 - Good (G/S places 1st 3 days)
24 - Total 68.75 (2.86)

2005 - Good
24 - Total 69.3 (2.89)

Looking at it from an average length per race point of view (not perfect as the more recently added races may give it a bias) a range of 3-4.5 lengths per race, or more precisely 2.86-4.57 would've given you the winning distances in each of the last 6 festivals. I'm inclined to give more weight to the last 3 years, given the likely ground conditions this year and the number of races increasing again, that would give us a range of 3.64 -4.57.

For 27 races, we'd be looking at a quote of 98.28-123.39, quite a margin, I grant you. But if we agree the winning margin is within those boundarys, some prices that wouldn't appeal:

under 95.75 13/8
over 120 7/4
under 90 7/4
under 85 13/8
over 117 15/8
under 92 13/8

so ruling those out, leaves us with offers of:

85-115 13/8
90-120 6/4
92-117 15/8
95.75 - 115.75 85/40
over 115.75 11/8
over 115 2/1

Initially I thought that 95.75-115.75 at 85/40 was a good bet, but the extra 5 lengths either way with 90-120 at 6/4, or 92-117 at 15/8 would make it a close choice, even over 115 at 2/1 has some appeal. I will be keeping an eye out for other bookmakers to price up over the next week or so, but at the moment I would split my stake 3 ways and back:

90-120 6/4 Skybet
92-117 15/8 VC Bet
95.75-115.75 85/40 Stan James

and hope to land in the sweet spot of 95.75-115.75 where all 3 would be landed.
 
16/1 Henderson not to train a winner looks a big price to me.Has an incredible team for the festival but in my opinion 16/1 any stable to be winnerless at the festival is a good price.
 
LUKE said:
16/1 Henderson not to train a winner looks a big price to me.Has an incredible team for the festival but in my opinion 16/1 any stable to be winnerless at the festival is a good price.
Click to expand...

With over 100 entries, even accounting for duplicates etc. if half that many line up that's alot of bullets to dodge, especially when one of his better races could be the very first of the meeting!

I understand your point about 16/1 being large, especially when 0,1 or 2 winners is around evens, I just don't think Henderson is the man to be taking on.

In fact... If my maths is correct, if you laid 10 of his runners at 10/1, 10 at 6/1 and 10 at 25/1, that's about a 16/1 Acc, not sure if he'll have that many 10/1 and shorter runners, but taking the prices at an average, that's what I make it.
 
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Bensalem to place looks a bad bet imo. Given his handicap mark, a clear round will make him a very likely winner. If he doesn't win, he's probably bombed out because his jumping has gone to pot.
 
If you fancy chancing your arm... Skybet offer;

Biggest Festival SP (27 races only, does not include charity race)*

Under 40/1 15/8
40/1-50/1 inclusive 6/4
over 50/1 13/8

Spot the deliberate mistake?

* Text in bracket is only information available when you click the "i" for further information - no further info included on the bet slip when you add to slip.
 
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I'd say it'll be settled after the Supreme Novices, wouldn't you? Best 13/8 shot I ever did see....
 
confused-monkey1.jpg
 
All the words in my post are all you'll get from their website and from placing a bet with them - nowhere does it mention the 'biggest festival sp' concerns the winner of a race - just Biggest Festival SP! Bound to be a 66/1+ shot in the Supreme Novices...
 
That is such a schoolboy error and I'm an absolute idiot for not spotting it! You can hardly claim palpable error on that? A trader will be getting a smack on the back of the head next week.
 
I reckon you have a free bet at it really - if a 66/1+ shot does win, you will win, if it doesn't you query why you haven't been paid out and explain it doesn't say it has to win! They surely couldn't settle it as a loser whatever they do?
 
Another from Skybet, in their "Request A Bet" section where you are encouraged to email them in requests for festival related bets and they'll price the best requests up.....

Pricewise to get 4 or more winners over festival (doesn't include Antepost selections) 5/1

Am still thinking this through and would like more info on his selections, both historically & already tipped AP this year (surely be unlikely to tip them up again on the day) but he does go a bit at it over the festival doesn't he? Doesn't he tip in most races, or at least 4 a day? You might be looking for a winner a day from him? 5/1 a good bet?
 
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I don't think they have any case really. Very poor oversight from whoever created the market.
 
Interesting, thanks, 20 selections over the four days, not including AP? Though 2 were NR's, still 5 a day to give you a chance of a winner. 5/1 for 4 or more instead of 10/3 for more than 4 in your favour I guess, will try to find his AP selections for this year...

Found them !
 
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He tipped up Ashkazar a couple of years at 11/4 so no reason to think he will necessarily go for double figure priced horses in every race.
 
Steve T said:
Another from Skybet, in their "Request A Bet" section where you are encouraged to email them in requests for festival related bets and they'll price the best requests up.....

Pricewise to get 4 or more winners over festival (doesn't include Antepost selections) 5/1

Am still thinking this through and would like more info on his selections, both historically & already tipped AP this year (surely be unlikely to tip them up again on the day) but he does go a bit at it over the festival doesn't he? Doesn't he tip in most races, or at least 4 a day? You might be looking for a winner a day from him? 5/1 a good bet?
Click to expand...

If I get 1 I'll be more than surprised:ninja::ninja:
 
Blue Square:

WHO WILL START FAVOURITE IN THE GOLD CUP
Imperial Commander evens
Long Run 5/2
Kauto Star 3/1
Denman 10/1

Is this the greatest certainty of all time?
 
The strangest things can happen in a Cheltenham markets. Just a few off the top of my head:

Go Native 11/4f (Champion Hurdle 2010)
How this horse went off fav I will never know. The answer of course is truck loads of cash.

Kicking King 4/1 (Gold Cup 2005)
Anyone of Celestial Gold, Beef Or Salmon, Strong Flow and Grey Abbey could have gone off fav.

Best Mate 8/11f (Gold Cup 2004)
Touched 5/6 on course despite being a heavy odds on favourite all season. The layers had got Baracouda beat and could smell blood.
 
Started to think last night that Long Run could go off favourite. There seem to be mixed messages about IC.
 
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