Road to Cheltenham Festival 'Specials'...

Gearoid said:
Blue Square:

WHO WILL START FAVOURITE IN THE GOLD CUP
Imperial Commander evens
Long Run 5/2
Kauto Star 3/1
Denman 10/1

Is this the greatest certainty of all time?
Click to expand...

I think Long Run will go off favourite.

I have a very very bad feeling about IC and think he is a place lay. The market could start to reflect this in the next week.
 
Hamm said:
Steve T,
You may find this interesting http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...l-going-winning-distances-and-lon-070311.html
Click to expand...

Missed this before, I'd certainly agree that the general mentality is to back high.

Firms are updating their quotes & prices every 5 minutes at the moment, my original selections of:

90-120 6/4 Skybet
92-117 15/8 VC Bet
95.75-115.75 85/40 Stan James

are now:

85-112 6/4 Skybet
92-117 13/8 VC Bet
95.75-115.75 2/1 Stan James

all moves in our favour, so am quite happy with these bets. In fact, due to the new players in the market, I will be adding to the bets above with the following:

90-115 6/4 William Hill (toss up between this and the new Skybet quote of 85-112 @ 6/4)
over 105 7/4 Paddy Power (at least enough to cover all stakes on everything else and hope it only just goes over!)

Using the PP bet to cover stakes looks like good insurance to me, although again giving the opportunity for all bets to win.

Distance bets:

90-120 6/4 Skybet
92-117 15/8 VC Bet
95.75-115.75 85/40 Stan James
90-115 6/4 William Hill
over 105 7/4 Paddy Power

Obviously if make-up is less than 90, I'll be relying on Pricewise selections & irish trained winners to land the special bet bacon!
 
Last edited:
Being the greedy goat that I am followed you in on the Stan James bet @ 85/40 - what's the best way of keeping ourselves appraised of the progress of this bet Steve?
 
On The Bridle said:
Being the greedy goat that I am followed you in on the Stan James bet @ 85/40 - what's the best way of keeping ourselves appraised of the progress of this bet Steve?
Click to expand...

Sporting Index have a spread line that although probably not in-play, may be updated each day, I'll have a good idea at most times so will post running totals each day if that helps.
 
Vc Bet - Champion Chase- Evs an English winner, Evs an Irish winner, surely the Irish 'squad' knocks the English sideways in this? Irish v MM really, Irish at Evs & MM 3/1 or bigger, can't see any other winner.
 
Last edited:
Gearoid said:
The strangest things can happen in a Cheltenham markets. Just a few off the top of my head:


Best Mate 8/11f (Gold Cup 2004)
Touched 5/6 on course despite being a heavy odds on favourite all season. The layers had got Baracouda beat and could smell blood.
Click to expand...

I think they could smell " mud " rather than blood - it had rained all day and Best Mate hated it - only class got him home .

Paul Carberry honestly said afterwards that had the race been run the day before he would have won by at least ten lengths.
 
Paddy Power's Heart Rate During First Race

Less than 85 bpm
26.00
85 to 90 bpm
21.00
91-95 bpm
17.00
96-100 bpm
13.00
101-105 bpm
7.00
106-110 bpm
6.00
111-115 bpm
4.50
116-120 bpm
4.50
121-125 bpm
5.00
126-130 bpm
6.00
More than 130 bpm
3.75

Is it wrong that I'm tempted by the 130+?
 
On The Bridle said:
what's the best way of keeping ourselves appraised of the progress of this bet Steve?
Click to expand...

Ok, a great days racing, but here's where we are with the 'specials':

Number of Irish Trained Winners at the Festival - 3 winners

A good place to start for me as by far my biggest potential return. I'd set myself a minimum of 2 today (Quevaga & X Country) and 2 tomorrow (3/4/5 good chances) to give a strong chance in the last 2 days (needing 7 to win), Hurricane Fly's win was a massive bonus.

Nicky Henderson winners - 0 winners

Close but no cigar for Tricky Nicky, runner-up in the first 3 races & 3rd in the Champion Hurdle, not a great start, the bizare shortening price when Riverside Theatre came out may have saved a loser here.

Cheltenham Festival Winning Distances - 20.5L

A near perfect start for the band we're aiming for - in comparison:

Day 1 2010 - 11.7
2009 - 16.75
2008 - 30.75
2007 - 19.6
2006 - 8.5
2005 - 18.5

Bear in mind the programme has changed, number of races / new races etc. but today's 20.5L will do nicely.

16/1 Henderson not to train a winner - so far so good....

Hills - Merdmit and Bensalem 13-2 to both placed in their respective races - close, but a loser, Medermit beaten 3/4L for a place, Bensalem winning...

Skybet - Biggest Festival SP - A mistake they corrected on Monday, finally...

Pricewise to get 4 or more winners over festival (doesn't include Antepost selections) - bracketed text the key here, 2 winners for PW today, both AP selections... 3 days to go, come on Tom!

WHO WILL START FAVOURITE IN THE GOLD CUP - TBC

Binocular is 8/11 with Blue Square to start jolly for the CH - Refunded maybe?

Twiston-Davies at 16/1 for top trainer - work in progress

Vc Bet - Champion Chase- Evs an English winner, Evs an Irish winner - we'll know tomorrow, come on the Irish!

Paddy Power's Heart Rate During First Race, More than 130 bpm 3.75. Is it wrong that I'm tempted by the 130+? - weighed in, weighed in....

More to come tomorrow!
 
Last edited:
Not sure, that was from Luke - I haven't backed all these, just Irish winners, Pricewise & distances, long way to go though.
 
Not a bookmaker special, but not currently being an RUK subscriber, I remembered, when watching the highlights just now, a letter they sent a week or so ago, basically you take out an annual subscription before Cheltenham & if Ruby was top jockey at the end of Tues, they'll refund your £240, ouch..
 
Wednesday Update

Number of Irish Trained Winners at the Festival - 9 winners, weighed in, weighed in!

Can't say how pleased I am with this, one of my biggest ever wins.

Nicky Henderson winners - 0 winners

Still 0.

Cheltenham Festival Winning Distances - 41.7L

Haven't got the day stats to hand, but this is still ok for us, happy with where we are.

16/1 Henderson not to train a winner - so far so good....

Pricewise to get 4 or more winners over festival (doesn't include Antepost selections) - Tom has started to fire on his daily tips, 2 winners today, just 2 more needed!

WHO WILL START FAVOURITE IN THE GOLD CUP - TBC

Twiston-Davies at 16/1 for top trainer - still work in progress

Vc Bet - Champion Chase- Evs an English winner, Evs an Irish winner - The Irish, and how...
 
Nice work Steve - spend you're winnings Best Mate - there are a few more to come I'd imagine

edit - misread your post BM - you could be under pressure but a lot of the Irish bullets have been fired - what price no Irish winner on St Patricks day?? Nothing jumping off the page - the forecast rain will help unaccompanied and Pandorama on Friday though.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top