Road to Royal Ascot, 2023

an capall

an capall

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
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For some unknown reason I find myself attracted to flat racing this season to a much greater degree than normal. I'm even looking forward to some good clashes at Ascot.

SJP: Chaldean Vs Paddington, but think Cicero's Gift might surprise the pair of them. River Tiber and Asadna will both hopefully go for the Coventry
Stakes, RT will win. POW: Desert Crown easily from Luxembourg.
 
Agreed, looks a cracking meeting. I don't really follow the 2yos closely but the potential clash in the Coventry might make it the race of the day. I don't see bets in the Queen Anne or the SJP and the King's Stand I presume is an Oz fest as I've not heard of quite a few of the market leaders.

On the Wed aside from an immense position on Desert Crown the Duke of Cambridge looks ripe for a bet. Inspiral heads the betting but surely goes for the Queen Anne. Jumbly is interesting, I liked her run against a track bias (and conceding race fitness to the winner) at the Curragh. Interesting yard switch. Laurel isn't taken lightly though, I thought she was disadvantaged by racing out on the wing and isolated in the Lockinge. Hard to choose between those two. I like Saga in the Hunt Cup.

I always find the Ribblesdale interesting from an ante-post point of view as the layers always seem to place Oaks fillies at the head of the betting and they never run. I've backed Bluestocking at around 5/1. I liked her run at Newbury where she was a tad green, she's in excellent hands and will appreciate 12f.

The Commonwealth Cup looks the usual hot heat. Would want to oppose LBB for all he was impressive at Haydock - he's just a tad short.

No opinion on anything else yet but would like to see Hukum and Free Wind clash in the Hardwicke. The sprints look impossible.
 
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Pearls And Rubies was given a lovely ride to win today on debut over 5. Should eat another furlong and hopefully makes the Albany.

Gosden chucking his in the mix in the Gold Cup.

Asadna wins the Coventry!
 
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Orazio looks a very worthy fav for the Wokingham. No NRNB concession yet, though, so keeping my powder dry.
 
I've been through the races with runners in tonight. I haven't seen a more appealing Royal Ascot from a betting point of view in my time following the sport anyway.

It seems to me Run To Freedom is of real interest in the Jubilee on Saturday. This horse was running in handicaps in 2021 but really stepped up his form in 2022, when landing his first listed race, then finishing second at 150/1 to an in form Kinross in the Group One sprint on Champions Day, when he also had really good horses like Creative Force and Rohaan in behind him.

That was an amazing run from Run To Freedom. He's coming here after a good listed win at Salisbury, where he showed that excellemt turn of foot he has again. He's coming to this race in top form and can run really well again. If he can find anywhere near the improvement from four to five years old, that he did from three to four, then he can find the extra few pounds needed to land the Jubilee on the final day of the meeting.
 
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I've done 3 in the Royal hunt cup and 1 in the wokingham.

SONNY LISTON 40/1
BLUE TO YOU 33/1
WANEES 33/1


MR WAGYU 16/1 and gone in again at 25/1.
 
Outsider said:
MR WAGYU 16/1 and gone in again at 25/1.
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I completely forgot to keep tabs on Mr Wagyu yesterday and only checked the result on seeing your post, outsider.

He reportedly ran flat, which I'd suggest is because he was trying last week but had a harder race than necessary by going too fast (his last section was slow) and probably wasn't over those exertions. The might have left it late now to get a penalty to have a chance of making the cut for the Wokingham. I can't back him now until I can see he'll make the cut and I can't see it happening unless they can find a very easy non-handicap for him to accrue the penalty.

They might have to wait now for the Stewards' Cup.
 
I have a question re Artorius. So he ran in the Jub' last year even though he was four months off being a 4yo. Now he is that age is there a reason to suppose further improvement from the level he reached that day is likely?
 
Given the normal sort of maturing you'd expect from such a horse it seems an angle to me. 5/1 doesn't seem fantastic but on the day I can see him being a bet.
 
Most intriguing race for me is between Little Big Bear and Sakheer

Both are entered for the Commonwealth Cup £340,260 and The July Cup £356,422

Why Little Big Bear and Sakheer's trainers seem hell bent on taking each other on in the former is beyond me.

If they do clash my money will be on Sakheer who to my eye changes gear that bit faster than Little Big Bear and probably stays better.

Sakheer is huge at 6/1.
 
I did more of a deep dive on the meeting after the Desert Crown news broke. I think I was being over reliant on my position on him basically guaranteeing a profitable week which after the Cheltenham carnage was important to me.

I've backed Native Trail in the Queen Anne. His last two runs in Group 1 company over a mile were a win in the Irish Guineas and a good second from the wrong part of the track in our version. He wasn't great fto but I never judge a proven Group 1 horse in races below that level. One of my key mandates of WFA betting. The front two are solid, that's the initial reason I sort of passed over the race but at around 13/2 NT is a bet.

Laurel is a tad too big in the Duke of Cambridge (recency bias). I'd have her as good at least as Jumbly so the price diff is off but it is a fillies race I have a bad record in though so just for multis - I have her in a Yankee with NT, Royal Scotsman and the other Aussie in the Jubilee.

Already mentioned Bluestocking in the Ribblesdale.

The Gold Cup isn't my type of race but aren't the market leaders a bit meh? Coltrane was a handicapper last year and I always want to take Varian horses on at short odds. Subjectivist is 10/1 and will trade much much shorter IR. He'll do, back to partial lay IR probably.

I took the plunge on Artorius at a boosted 11/2 at Laddies. I do think the WFA foal date type thing is in his favour now whereas it wasn't last year. That could be bollocks but I'm going with it.

The Handicaps I'm sure plenty of trackers will be entered up but I like to be careful with them, they are so competitive. I did take 14s ap about Saga for the Hunt Cup but laid it back at 11 after seeing him entered and Dettori up for the Wolfreton.
 
That's a big downer as I really fancied Bluestocking. Put this together with the baffling decision to move Saga's target and Johnny and the idiot boy son are not my favourite's at the moment. All is forgiven though if Lady Eros takes the Kensington Palace on Wed.
 
Mooneista has to be overpriced in King Stand Stakes at 40/1 .
Sixth in Golden Jubilee 2021 when drawn on wrong side and fourth in King Stand last year, she has changed stables to Joseph O'Brien and should fare better than her debut run for new stable at Naas.
Has to be ridden for luck a la Sole Power .
 
I'm not convinced the Tattersalls Gold Cup was a great race. Bay Bridge isa bit in and out and Vadeni was found to be coughing hence his poor performance.

Charlie Appleby's string are coming right at the right time and Adayar will appreciate the fast ground whereas Luxemburg would be better suited with a bit of cut.

BTW ANYONE DOESN"T HAVE ACCESS TO THE MEETING:_ Racing.com will be showing it live......you can log in with google or facebook if the UK isn't blocked
 
I've had a look at the Tuesday non-handicaps (excluding the 2yos as well).

I'm really looking forward to the racing but it has to be said it's a bit underwhelming in terms of quality.

The Queen Anne is very competitive but Modern Games (121) and Inspiral (120 plus the weight allowance) are the only ones with ORs of 120 or more, when I'd be looking for 126 or better. If it turns out Mutasaabeq needs to dominate a weak small field then he can be discounted but I can see me giving him another chance. I think Crowley made an arse of the sections last time.

I mentioned a wee while back that I'd taken 11/4 Highfield Princess for the King's Stand and I'm happy with that but again it's a seriously moderate race. She is no fewer than 9lbs clear on RPRs of the best of the rest and that's before taking her allowance into account.

It's quite normal for the SJP not to have many highly rated runners but that can be the nature of early-mid-season 3yo races. I'm not convinced Paddington can really put it up to Chaldean. I might think about putting some financial faith on James McDonald's pace judgment with a small risk on Galeron who is eight times the price of his stablemate Cicero's Gift.

I'll be happier getting stuck into the handicaps.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I mentioned a wee while back that I'd taken 11/4 Highfield Princess for the King's Stand and I'm happy with that but again it's a seriously moderate race. She is no fewer than 9lbs clear on RPRs of the best of the rest and that's before taking her allowance into account.
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Did someone put Mitbaahy up for this at 40s? I liked him last year, backed AP for the Stewards Cup after the Charge second to Raasel but Varian went King George instead despite the fact that an easy 6 would be better for him than an easy 5. He'll get outpaced and I can't really see him winning but you might get 4s+ for four places. That'd be a bet.
 
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I'll be mob-handed, as per, in the Hunt Cup, but I've already backed Ghaly (12/1) to cover them all. It looks like Godolphin, who usually have at least two in this race, are happy to rely on him and Murphy has already been booked. I'll probably also back him (16/1) for the John Smith as he might be up to landing the double. He could be a G1 horse in the making.
 
Buckingham palace hcap thursday.
RHOSCOLYN 50/1 that's a massive price imo if it gets in.
3rd off 103 last year 33/1 and is 9lb lower this year.needs a few to come out but 94 made the cut last year.
 
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