Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
I'm marginally down (I think) going into today. I'll be okay if I am still that way at 6.20 this afternoon. My thoughts for today [with overnight/morning edits in square brackets]:
2.30 - The winner of this race usually has a card RPR of over 100 but Holloway Boy was a debutant last year and although Battlefield won it three years ago when rated only 79 it was backed into favouritism so with only three of this field with card RPRs off 100 or more the chances are a few will improve significantly on what they’ve done. I’ve ordered these by RPRs and the betting pretty much harmonises with them. I’ve backed Warnie at 28/1, four places. I just find it strange that Joseph O’Brien would drag one over to debut here and engage James McDonald for it. It was 50s earlier this afternoon so maybe money is talking. [Added La Guarida 11/2]
3.05 - This looks a very substandard renewal. The normal Card RPR for the winner is 125-130 so virtually the entire field have it to prove. I’ve taken 11/1. four places, Olivia Maralda since, theoretically, she has least improvement to make to have a good chance. I half-expect one or two to improve past her but wouldn’t be able to name which and what’s to say she won’t improve herself anyway? [Added HB ew/4 12/1 & Quar Shamar ew/4 14/1]
3.40 - I’ve ordered these by RPR and added my own higher-rated figures to see how they stack up relative to the odds. I presume the idea of putting up £1m in prize money was to attract the cream of the world’s sprinters but not a single one of these has an OR in the 120s. How pathetic is that? It’s effectively a glorified handicap and the way the jockeys have been riding like idiots this week, going stupidly fast, I’m inclined to lend significant weight to the quality of rider as much as horse. That, though, wouldn’t be why I’ve backed Big Invasion (20/1, 5 places); that was because a fortnight ago he clocked 68s for six furlongs at Belmont. The Standard Time for the downhill six at Epsom is 67.5s. Whether he can act on the uphill gradient here remains to be seen but I thought the price was too big. Highfield Princess [5/1 taken] is worth persevering with. She really should have had the beating of Bradsell the other day but I wonder if the plan was to win both races using that one to get her fully fit for this. I can see Kinross forcing the pace since he is the one with stamina but while he acts on fast ground it’s been against weaker opposition over seven furlongs or a mile.
4.20 - I’ve ordered these by my own figures and you can see they tie in with RPRs very closely. I have huge respect for Free Wind, the Gosdens and Dettori but I wouldn’t have her at 11/4 for this despite her profile. I’d thought about taking her ante-post for the Arc ahead of this, though, in case she bustled up the top two but she’s only 28/1 for that. Hukum looked the part at Sandown last month (10f) and will be better back up in trip. He hammered Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup but the latter improved from there to the King George which he won decisively in a very fast time. They’re making big noises about him this time round but there’s no reason why Hukum shouldn’t improve again this season. Free Wind will do very well to get by them. Hukum’s the bet for me. [Hukum NR, taken 2/1 Pyledriver w/o Free Wind]
5.00 - I’ve been looking forward to this race all season, mainly because I’ve felt Summerghand was being trained for it all along so he’s a must bet. Mr Wagyu is another I’ve felt has been waiting for this so he’s a bet. They’re drawn reasonably centrally so it will be up to the jockeys to decide which side to follow. It looked on Wednesday like the middle-far-side had a bias but the last time that happened they watered overnight and changed it around so there’s no way of knowing what will happen here. If I read that they haven’t watered I’ll be focusing on the middle-low numbers and I would be disappointed if the top two didn’t tack to that area early on. I would want to see both held up off the pace. That’s Summerghand’s normal style in this kind of race but Mr Wagyu has done too much up front the last twice although I’ve suspected it was with a view to ensuring the horse didn’t quite get home so as to preserve its mark. Fresh is another I can see finishing well on the far side while Albasheer will almost certainly get the Spencer hold-up treatment. He was rated 112 when running in the Dewhurst and is very lightly raced since. This is his first run in a handicap and Watson has done well to get his mark down so sharply. I fancy stablemate Saint Lawrence to run a big race too if the move to this yard has sweetened him up. For bets, I’m looking at anything that might hit 130 on the scale and are drawn around 22 or higher and the ones that do are all really nice prices, bar maybe Khanjar but I can use him to cover the others. [Strong near-side advantage on Friday so lots of high-drawn longshots covered with Khanjar and Orazio]
5.35 - The London Gold Cup went through a barren spell with its subsequent runners until this week when it has been franked all over the shop so I’ve backed Have Secret, beaten only a length in fourth, here. I’ve also backed Lion Of War who is worth a substantial mark-up on his recent win and should be suited by stepping up in trip but wherever he finishes Coco Jack shouldn’t be far behind because he kept on well from the front that day and will also be suited by the extra distance. I’ll settle for these three against the field.
6.10 - Stratum is entitled to be well fancied to land the hat-trick in this race. The trip is clearly right up his street. Falcon Eight was entitled to beat him on form last year and couldn’t so maybe he doesn’t fully stay the trip. I’ll probably take a shot at Run For Oscar. On my figures he’s a better hurdler than Stratum and should probably stay every bit as well. Goshen at his best is the best of them over hurdles but there’s no evidence he’ll stay this far on the Flat.
Be lucky everyone
2.30 - The winner of this race usually has a card RPR of over 100 but Holloway Boy was a debutant last year and although Battlefield won it three years ago when rated only 79 it was backed into favouritism so with only three of this field with card RPRs off 100 or more the chances are a few will improve significantly on what they’ve done. I’ve ordered these by RPRs and the betting pretty much harmonises with them. I’ve backed Warnie at 28/1, four places. I just find it strange that Joseph O’Brien would drag one over to debut here and engage James McDonald for it. It was 50s earlier this afternoon so maybe money is talking. [Added La Guarida 11/2]
3.05 - This looks a very substandard renewal. The normal Card RPR for the winner is 125-130 so virtually the entire field have it to prove. I’ve taken 11/1. four places, Olivia Maralda since, theoretically, she has least improvement to make to have a good chance. I half-expect one or two to improve past her but wouldn’t be able to name which and what’s to say she won’t improve herself anyway? [Added HB ew/4 12/1 & Quar Shamar ew/4 14/1]
3.40 - I’ve ordered these by RPR and added my own higher-rated figures to see how they stack up relative to the odds. I presume the idea of putting up £1m in prize money was to attract the cream of the world’s sprinters but not a single one of these has an OR in the 120s. How pathetic is that? It’s effectively a glorified handicap and the way the jockeys have been riding like idiots this week, going stupidly fast, I’m inclined to lend significant weight to the quality of rider as much as horse. That, though, wouldn’t be why I’ve backed Big Invasion (20/1, 5 places); that was because a fortnight ago he clocked 68s for six furlongs at Belmont. The Standard Time for the downhill six at Epsom is 67.5s. Whether he can act on the uphill gradient here remains to be seen but I thought the price was too big. Highfield Princess [5/1 taken] is worth persevering with. She really should have had the beating of Bradsell the other day but I wonder if the plan was to win both races using that one to get her fully fit for this. I can see Kinross forcing the pace since he is the one with stamina but while he acts on fast ground it’s been against weaker opposition over seven furlongs or a mile.
4.20 - I’ve ordered these by my own figures and you can see they tie in with RPRs very closely. I have huge respect for Free Wind, the Gosdens and Dettori but I wouldn’t have her at 11/4 for this despite her profile. I’d thought about taking her ante-post for the Arc ahead of this, though, in case she bustled up the top two but she’s only 28/1 for that. Hukum looked the part at Sandown last month (10f) and will be better back up in trip. He hammered Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup but the latter improved from there to the King George which he won decisively in a very fast time. They’re making big noises about him this time round but there’s no reason why Hukum shouldn’t improve again this season. Free Wind will do very well to get by them. Hukum’s the bet for me. [Hukum NR, taken 2/1 Pyledriver w/o Free Wind]
5.00 - I’ve been looking forward to this race all season, mainly because I’ve felt Summerghand was being trained for it all along so he’s a must bet. Mr Wagyu is another I’ve felt has been waiting for this so he’s a bet. They’re drawn reasonably centrally so it will be up to the jockeys to decide which side to follow. It looked on Wednesday like the middle-far-side had a bias but the last time that happened they watered overnight and changed it around so there’s no way of knowing what will happen here. If I read that they haven’t watered I’ll be focusing on the middle-low numbers and I would be disappointed if the top two didn’t tack to that area early on. I would want to see both held up off the pace. That’s Summerghand’s normal style in this kind of race but Mr Wagyu has done too much up front the last twice although I’ve suspected it was with a view to ensuring the horse didn’t quite get home so as to preserve its mark. Fresh is another I can see finishing well on the far side while Albasheer will almost certainly get the Spencer hold-up treatment. He was rated 112 when running in the Dewhurst and is very lightly raced since. This is his first run in a handicap and Watson has done well to get his mark down so sharply. I fancy stablemate Saint Lawrence to run a big race too if the move to this yard has sweetened him up. For bets, I’m looking at anything that might hit 130 on the scale and are drawn around 22 or higher and the ones that do are all really nice prices, bar maybe Khanjar but I can use him to cover the others. [Strong near-side advantage on Friday so lots of high-drawn longshots covered with Khanjar and Orazio]
5.35 - The London Gold Cup went through a barren spell with its subsequent runners until this week when it has been franked all over the shop so I’ve backed Have Secret, beaten only a length in fourth, here. I’ve also backed Lion Of War who is worth a substantial mark-up on his recent win and should be suited by stepping up in trip but wherever he finishes Coco Jack shouldn’t be far behind because he kept on well from the front that day and will also be suited by the extra distance. I’ll settle for these three against the field.
6.10 - Stratum is entitled to be well fancied to land the hat-trick in this race. The trip is clearly right up his street. Falcon Eight was entitled to beat him on form last year and couldn’t so maybe he doesn’t fully stay the trip. I’ll probably take a shot at Run For Oscar. On my figures he’s a better hurdler than Stratum and should probably stay every bit as well. Goshen at his best is the best of them over hurdles but there’s no evidence he’ll stay this far on the Flat.
Be lucky everyone
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Interestingly when Lion of War won at Musslebrough he had a better fancied stablemate much shorter in the market.
) and I was impressed by Olivia Maralda last time. Best several you can make a really good case for....just can’t back ‘em all!
