Road to the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Ardross said:
The ratings inflation was already present . Neptune Collonges and Tidal Bay were given silly ratings for the Argento . NC was almost certainly only a high 150s horse by then
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Neptune Collonges was two lengths clear with the race at his mercy, ahead of Exotic Dancer (recently cited on here as one of the better horses not to win the Gold Cup) when he came down two out in the Lexus and went on to win the Hennessy - both Grade 1s. He'd also finished alongside Kauto Star and a long way ahead of the 165-rated Halcon Genelardais (who subsequently ran so well in the Scottish national off top weight and 169). No wonder he was able to win the National off just 157!

Ardross said:
Pandorama was given an absurd 166.
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High maybe but hardly absurd. He had, after all, won the Lexus by 6 lengths from Money Trix who had been a close second behind WAF in the Lexus the previous year.

166 isn't that serious a rating, remember. It is, after all, below the notional 168 reuired for proper Grade 1 status. Once you start working out the lines, Long Run's rating falls comfortably into the kind of area his high ratings suggest.

The simple conclusion is that he never got over his hard race. He's off 160 in the National. His highest rating is some way better than Neptune Collonges's. If they can get him to Aintree as fit and well as possible, he wouldn't need to be as good as he was to have a very serious chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Neptune Collonges was two lengths clear with the race at his mercy, ahead of Exotic Dancer (recently cited on here as one of the better horses not to win the Gold Cup) when he came down two out in the Lexus and went on to win the Hennessy - both Grade 1s. He'd also finished alongside Kauto Star and a long way ahead of the 165-rated Halcon Genelardais (who subsequently ran so well in the Scottish national off top weight and 169). No wonder he was able to win the National off just 157!


High maybe but hardly absurd. He had, after all, won the Lexus by 6 lengths from Money Trix who had been a close second behind WAF in the Lexus the previous year.

166 isn't that serious a rating, remember. It is, after all, below the notional 168 reuired for proper Grade 1 status. Once you start working out the lines, Long Run's rating falls comfortably into the kind of area his high ratings suggest.

The simple conclusion is that he never got over his hard race. He's off 160 in the National. His highest rating is some way better than Neptune Collonges's. If they can get him to Aintree as fit and well as possible, he wouldn't need to be as good as he was to have a very serious chance.
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1 That was 27 months before in 2008 Exotic Dancer died in April 2009 . It shows how subjective ratings are - you say he had the Lexus at his mercy . To my eyes Exotic Dancer was cantering all over him and he was coming under pressure hence his mistake . By the time of the 2011 Argento he was rated 162 after his tendon injury in the 2009 Gold Cup ( and exotic Dancer was ahead of him before he suffered that injury on the run in ) - he beat a non field under an inspired McCoy ride and was lumped up to 168/9 . He started showing good form in handicaps once he was put back to his proper rating post his tendon injury of around 162 and by that stage he was a much better horse over extended trips - in the 2011 GC he was a shadow of the 2008/9 GC horse .

2 LR may well have a chance in the National if his jumping holds up - like NC I reckon he is a 160 horse having been a 170-172 horse in his pomp . He was not a 182 horse in a million years .

3 NC was a 175 horse in his prime although he was flattered by a below par Kauto falling back on him in the 2008 GC .

4 Halcon Generlardais was an out and out stayer it is hardly surprising he was able to show significantly better form over 4m at Ayr than 3m 2f at Cheltenham.

5 Money Trix was beaten by What a Friend who was a 159 horse. Then in ground that exaggerates distances he was beaten by Pandorama a mudlark who would never have produced a 166 figure on good ground at Cheltenham and should have been no more than 161 for that lexus win.

PS Exotic Dancer was still on the bridle and Ruby was nudging along ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-TVrpwwlDU
 
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Another thought for Exotic Dancer he was so unlucky to be racing when he was . I reckon he would have beaten the four Gold Cup winners since Imperial Commander.
 
clivex said:
Well Ive been a follower of SC for some time. After that spectacular Aintree win he continued to be a little underrated. But whist i think its daft to use the word "never" in any horse race, I am pretty well of the conclusion that hes not one for the GC regardless of ground or pace. And frankly, with BW not performing and maybe not doing so again, this was as bad a field as he could have faced. It was now or never
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On the basis of one below par performance, you could also surmise that Bobs Worth could never win a GC, either?
Since his novice days, Silviniaco had run in 7 chases, all over 3m or more, regularly on testing ground at strong paces, and often beating better horses than finished in front of him Friday. In none of those races did he show the slightest sign of weakening, indeed it was a feature that he was gaining ground on his opponents at the business end of most of them. Don't see that he was stopping last week either, if anything he was rallying toward the end after losing ground carting halfway across the track to avoid Noel Fehily's whip.
He's relatively young, still improving (if you forgive his latest in unsuitable circumstances) and has every chance of being a major player next time around, providing the cards fall his way a little better.
 
Ardross said:
- you say he had the Lexus at his mercy . To my eyes Exotic Dancer was cantering all over him and he was coming under pressure hence his mistake .
PS Exotic Dancer was still on the bridle and Ruby was nudging along ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-TVrpwwlDU
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The form book saw it differently:

What can´t be disputed is that Neptune Collonges is just a lovely, old-fashioned chaser and a wonderful horse to watch. When he doesn´t go long at his fences he finds a leg and is very clever. That described this performance until he met the second last wrong and came down. He was still travelling supremely well and would have taken some beating;
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It is all down to the best horse on the day.
They are not machines, were never meant to be and never will be.
What makes great horse great is their ability to run to their best form.
Whether that is 165,170 or 180 is purely academic.
That a horse can win at win in consecutive years at the biggest festival on the calendar whatever his rating is an immense achievement.
Best Mate whatever his ratings or those of his opponents never looked like losing any of his Gold Cups, except when carberry kept him in the third year.
That PC outrode Jim in the Supreme Novice makes it more amazing that they gave him the ride when Jim retired .
I imagine they thought it was better have him on their side !
 
reet hard said:
On the basis of one below par performance, you could also surmise that Bobs Worth could never win a GC, either?
Since his novice days, Silviniaco had run in 7 chases, all over 3m or more, regularly on testing ground at strong paces, and often beating better horses than finished in front of him Friday. In none of those races did he show the slightest sign of weakening, indeed it was a feature that he was gaining ground on his opponents at the business end of most of them. Don't see that he was stopping last week either, if anything he was rallying toward the end after losing ground carting halfway across the track to avoid Noel Fehily's whip.
He's relatively young, still improving (if you forgive his latest in unsuitable circumstances) and has every chance of being a major player next time around, providing the cards fall his way a little better.
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Thats nonsense. For a start i never said "never" and i never do in racing.

Of course hes beaten better horses than on Friday. I do follow form. I was at Kempton on boxing day

All I am saying is that i do not think he relished the hill (and I gave examples of past form). He folded badly at a crucial stage and on that basis i would be wary of backing him here again. Very wary
 
reet hard said:
On the basis of one below par performance, you could also surmise that Bobs Worth could never win a GC, either?
Since his novice days, Silviniaco had run in 7 chases, all over 3m or more, regularly on testing ground at strong paces, and often beating better horses than finished in front of him Friday. In none of those races did he show the slightest sign of weakening, indeed it was a feature that he was gaining ground on his opponents at the business end of most of them. Don't see that he was stopping last week either, if anything he was rallying toward the end after losing ground carting halfway across the track to avoid Noel Fehily's whip.
He's relatively young, still improving (if you forgive his latest in unsuitable circumstances) and has every chance of being a major player next time around, providing the cards fall his way a little better.
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I was in the Conti camp but did have reservations of him getting home after the last.
Having 3m+ form around Kempton, Haydock and Aintree is a far cry from the Gold cup trip around Cheltenham.
He is a classy horse and would have far more pace than the 3 that beat him home. The fact he could not beat them off a moderate pace and on decent ground suggests he blatantly didn't stay (or well enough). Knowing that I fail to see how he will off a faster pace on softer ground. True, that LW and TGB could have been tailed off under a more serious gallop as they seemed to be struggling under the sedate pace that was set early on. Even that, I would have visions of him coming to a walk up the run in. I can't forget Sir Des Champs last year after getting over the last. AP could barely get him over the line.
I also have his King George win in the back of my mind aswell when he ran past the struggling Cue Card, only for what looked like Cue Card appearing to if anything claw a bit of ground back after the last. I could be reading too much in to that ofcourse.
Maybe Conti just wasn't seen to best light on the day as Bob wasn't. Though I really believe he just doesn't stay. Can see him winning or going close again in the King George, and would not mind to be proved wrong regards the Gold Cup as I really do like the horse.

All in all, the Gold Cup this year was just weird. LW and TGB being shoved along very early on. Conti not getting home off sedate pace veering all over the place, and Bob not running past also veering all over the place (thought he burst a blood vessel or something) and the early struggling horses running by with On His Own (ran a great race). Watched it a few times and still leaves me perplexed.

ps,
I wouldn't be backing Conti next year :cool:
 
Would that horse with "loads of pace" be the same one his trainer described as "just a slow horse who stays"? :)
There's no mystery at all about the Gold Cup form, the first 2 in the market were both outsped in the dash to the line - a result of the steady early pace on the relatively quicker ground.
Check the sectionals again.
 
Neptune Collonges was always underrated.

I rated him 180 at his best and was injured when kauto won his 2nd Gold cup.
 
reet hard said:
Would that horse with "loads of pace" be the same one his trainer described as "just a slow horse who stays"? :)
There's no mystery at all about the Gold Cup form, the first 2 in the market were both outsped in the dash to the line - a result of the steady early pace on the relatively quicker ground.
Check the sectionals again.
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Compared to LW and TGB he would be Usain Bolt. He wasn't passed by Cue Card. He was passed by stayers when the gas was running out.
When Conti kicked without being asked a question, LW and TGB were being driven. When he then asked Conti everything he was passed after the last by the 'stayers'.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The form book saw it differently:
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Well Exotic Dancer had closed his four or five lengths lead to two with the minimum of effort ,was cantering and NC was being asked for an effort . The fact that the form book was written by someone who could not see that hardly makes it any less the case.
 
Agreed, but it illustrates how subjective it all is. Your reading of it might be flawed too.

Looking at the footage, I'm not sure I would say ED was cantering. Going very well yes, but so was NC. You also have to bear in mind that if Walsh appeared to be asking him for an effort, it was approaching the fence. You'll notice McCoy do the same thing on ED at other fences. It's a bit like the Looks Like Trouble-Nick Dundee scenario (although that was much further out) and it's impossible to say which would have prevailed, knowing NC's unlimited stamina.
 
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Over 3m on yielding ground at a married man's pace, there's little doubt ED would have prevailed comfortably.
One had the speed to win over 2.5m, the other didn't.
 
Isnt the problem with the Best Mate rating in the Gold Cup that he never put up a huge rating elsewhere. Think the poetry in motion feel that Best Mate produced during the second Gold Cup especially means he will be remembered forever, but ratings wise, poetry in motion bonuses arent really objective.
 
It's a well-argued piece but it doesn't take account of Lord Windermere being ridden detached off a muddling pace, so he would have been trying to make his ground while those in front were increasing the pace. He's probably a few pounds better than the bare form.
 
Euronymous said:
Leaving the GC aside, 173p for More of That is a bit much.
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I thought this was more than fair and easy to explain if you believe Annie Power is worth a rating of 165. All the form stacks up and with a completely unexposed winner it looks right to me.

I was impressed with More of That. With his big, long stride, he always looked like outstaying the mare.
 
I can't have Zarkandar as a 162 beast anymore and I for one am skeptical of 165 for the mare. That's a mark that if she ran up to at Liverpool would see her beat The New One in all probability.
 
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More proof (if it were needed) that the GC wasn't the 'stayers' race that many claim it to be:*

Prufrock
20 Mar 2014, 00:58
It wasn't possible to go into huge detail in a blog, with other races competing for attention, and I wanted to make the comparison between the Gold Cup and the Foxhunter so that there were no queries about rail movements between races. But here are the results of a similar exercise to the one I posted on Twitter about another race on the same day.

Averaging the by-obstacle times for the previous 5 leaders and 5 winners of the Gold Cup, then pro-rata adjusting the resulting figures to this year's overall time gives the following margins back from an average leader and average winner for the leader and for Lord Windermere in this year's race:

11th fence: Leader 4.5 lengths behind, winner 7.5 lengths behind
15th fence: Leader 4.5 lengths behind, winner 7 lengths behind
18th fence: Leader 6.5 lengths behind, winner 10 lengths behind
20th fence (3 out): Leader 4 lengths behind, winner 10 lengths behind
22nd (final) fence: Leader 4.5 lengths behind, winner 6.5 lengths behind
Level at line.

They were actually slightly ahead of normal pace for the early fences but, as can be seen from the above, they had dropped behind by halfway and further behind approaching the closing stages before there was quite a quick finish (compared to the overall race time). Or at least in the context of the averages from the previous 5 runnings of the same race.

There is no evidence that the leaders went too soon (unlike the year before), if anything, the opposite, though in an ideal world we would have many more races in the sample and attempt to adjust for the rail movements etc mentioned.

*Lifted from TRF
 
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reet hard said:
More proof (if it were needed) that the GC wasn't the 'stayers' race that many claim it to be:
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EXACTLY. Yet he still couldn't beat the slower horses that 'stayed' the trip better than him.

You'll convince yourself eventually that he stays. Hey, and maybe even me ;)
 
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