Road to the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup

I've also gone low with the race.

It looks to me like The Giant Bolster and Knockara Beau have run as well as could be expected - in fact to the ounce on their form behind Synchronized on entirely different going - so LW emerges on 165 along with On His Own.

On that form, OHO really should have won either of the last two Nationals. Hrrumphh (I was on him both times).

Lyreen Legend (160) has put up a career best in sixth.

It's not hard to see why they might have fancied Triolo D'Alene the way the race has panned out. On his Hennessy form he was entitled to be in the shake up.
 
165 seems very fair.
All those concerned still young enough to run to better ratings in the future.
TGB a hero in that he is such a reliable stick .
Gold Cup or other major race winners generally bite the hands that under rate them historically !
 
betsmate said:
I'll be back at at either 3:30 or the start of the flat...

Seriously it is a two horse race. Bobs Worth comes in off the back of a G1 win and with an impeccable Cheltenham record. There is your winner. The choice you have is whether you would take 6/4 about the horse that you saw at Haydock.

SC may be the best horse in the race, but has won only 1 of last 4, never won at Cheltenham, in fact has made mistakes both time he has run. That is only going to be exasperated by quick ground imo.

So I can see why people are looking for alternatives. Which is why Last Instalment is so short. Lovely winning profile, but 27f up the Cheltenham hill yet to be proven and has only really been beating up a 13yo and First Lieutenant over 3 miles.

After that you are into the 'cappers, nags, plodders and stayers. So in the bid to find some value, pick the least fashionable one - something from the northern circuit. Back it at the biggest price you can find - 80/1

I was at Wetherby for the Rowland Meyrick (backed Cape Trib) and Cloudy Too was impressive.

In his favour:

- 2 wins and a 2nd from 4 starts this season
- 2nd highest topspeed rating in the race
- 2nd behind Captain Chris lto (who I would give a squeak in this year's renewal), with some decent horses in behind: Hunt Ball, Medermit, Kauto Stone, Riverside Theatre etc.
- Only "poor" performance this season was the Hennessey, but actually 3 out was in contention when making a mistake
- Still only 8, still on the upgrade
- Probably best seen with cut, trainer certainly says so, but she has run him on good and GS often enough and he has won on Good over hurdles
- This jockey has a 50% strike rate onboard him

Hey look, it is an 80/1 outsider. But it is a raggy race and I think that there is worse value in that field...
Click to expand...


Did Betsmate die?
 
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