Road to the Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gearoid
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Thanks. That then makes the centenary novices race the old Jewson. I would be interested to know (if anyone does) if Surfing is intended to run in this new race?
 
Bar the Bull said:
Jewson is the 2m4f conditions race.
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I find it best to refer to these races under their registered names. This one is the Golden Miller Novice Chase. Nicer ring to it.


I'm all over For Non Stop for the Coral Cup. Six lengths behind Grand Crus receiving only a pound is top notch handicap form.
 
Euronymous said:
I find it best to refer to these races under their registered names. This one is the Golden Miller Novice Chase. Nicer ring to it.


I'm all over For Non Stop for the Coral Cup. Six lengths behind Grand Crus receiving only a pound is top notch handicap form.
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That looks like a serious bit of form now Euro!:cool:
 
Chartreux is the one I am looking for in the Pertemps Pipe gave him a favourable mention at Exeter, but under Wednesday rather than Thursday.

The Coral Cup is on the Wednesday. The Pertemps on Thursday. He is entered in both.

He is 33s for the Coral Cup, and 16s for the Pertemps. Which is he likely to go for? Has he qualified for the Pertemps?
 
I'm hoping Henderson runs Aegean Dawn in the Coral Cup, which I think he can win; the step up in trip should be right up his street.
 
From today's Irish Independent:

Fair crack for Mullins' entries


By Richard Forristal




Thursday March 03 2011

There was a modicum of relief for many Irish handlers yesterday when the weights for the 11 Cheltenham festival handicaps were revealed, though not everything escaped the wrath of the British handicapper Phil Smith.
The treatment of Irish horses by Smith has been a bone of contention in recent years, with arbitrary hikes proving a deterrent for numerous trainers. This time, the British assessor appears to have been slightly more lenient, with increases of up to five pounds the most common penalty for the 196 Irish nominees.
However, Dessie Hughes, Tony Martin and Noel Meade may feel hard done by, with each of the trio responsible for at least two horses that will need to race off much higher marks than would be the case at home.

Stone

Martin's Montan, a winner at Fairyhouse in January and entered in both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe conditional jockeys' race, is one of the worst off, having been raised a stone by Smith.
Willie Mullins has less cause for complaint. His impressive MCR Hurdle winner Final Approach, which is in the two aforementioned handicaps and the County Hurdle, is up just five pounds on his Irish rating, while both Smith and his Irish counterpart Noel O'Brien are of a like mind in relation to Mullins' Call The Police.
That one, second to Final Approach in the MCR before hosing up in a conditions race at Punchestown, has a mark of 140 at home and abroad. The Accordion gelding is entered in the Coral Cup and the conditional jockeys' race.
Following the announcement of the weights, Mullins' Blackstairmountain was the subject of good support for the County Hurdle.
With just a one-pound penalty, the Punchestown Grade One winner is set to carry 10st 9lb, and has been trimmed into 12/1 joint-favouritism for the two-miler by a number of firms.
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Sunnyhillboy's price is evaporating. Take any 10/1 you can. Races off 139 (10-10). Completely unexposed at the trip and has festival form. Bet of the meeting in my opinion.
 
Gearoid said:
Sunnyhillboy's price is evaporating. Take any 10/1 you can. Races off 139 (10-10). Completely unexposed at the trip and has festival form. Bet of the meeting in my opinion.
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I see Great Endeavour has been cut in the market but Sunnyhillboy is 8lb better off with him on their racing Post Plate run at the festival last year. I can't have enough on to be honest!
 
Gone for Reve De Sivola. He didn't jump too badly at Sandown (not that he was in the picture for the whole race:o) but he has bits of reasonable form at Cheltenham and he's crying out for a trip. He's worth a bet at 16s given the mark he's running off.
 
These handicaps are mostly for the seriously deranged, insane and ones on the tilt. I will not be getting involved unless I'm miles behind and seriously on the tilt - which may very well happen.....:ninja: Peak Raider at about 14's in the Grand Annual could well be the getting out horse for me should things get out of hand...
 
Gearoid said:
Sunnyhillboy's price is evaporating. Take any 10/1 you can. Races off 139 (10-10). Completely unexposed at the trip and has festival form. Bet of the meeting in my opinion.
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I know this has been a long range fancy for you and he certainly stands out in the race for me. I've included him in multiples running onto Oh Crick & Shoreacres in the last race of the festival, am hoping to have a few quid split between these two by the time it comes around, courtesy of running up multiples.
 
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I've been doing similar. I have three multiples with only Sunnyhillboy to run for a very decent payout. I always thought his price would collapse if he got near the race. He's starting to look tight now at 6/1 in places (15/2 best). I'm hoping I won't need a bet on the Grand Annual but why are you so keen to get lumps on the two?
 
I was really impressed with Shoreacres the last day and with the wellbeing of the stable, his course form and the fact he's been given the green light for the race, I wanted to try and build up a nice position on him by hopefully catching him in some multiples. Similar story for Oh Crick but the encouragement comes from a fairly shrewd colleague who's keen on him.

It's a strategy I've used (unsuccessfully) on the world cup bets I had on corners, goals & cards, putting them with things I might fancy on a day to day basis. I've done the same with my bets over the last month on the number of Irish trained winners - adding the over 6.5 to the end of multiple distance bets and other fancies. Have ended up with a pretty decent return for at 2/1, 7/4 & 11/8, it's now 6/5 and that seems about the right price to me so will probably stick with what I've got.
 
Last several years I think I spent too much time anaylising form for these handicap races and not taking into account the markets. This year my plan is to watch the markets for the positives and back them horses.

This year these horses have come to my attention as market moves so far: All priced roughly between 6 -12/1 right now.

NH Chase - Alfa Beat

Coral Cup - For Non Stop

WH Trophy - Great Endeavour

Kim Muir - Junior

Fred Winter - Qalinas

Country Hurdle - Ski Sunday

Pertempts Hurdle - Barafundle
 
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Sunnyhillboy is now a best priced 6/1 top price. Looks like going of 5/1 I think. Tipped by the RP and McCoy riding. I'm on for the biggest horsing racing win of my life at 16/1 and 12/1. I'll be in bits at 2.40 tomorrow.
 
Steve T said:
I know this has been a long range fancy for you and he certainly stands out in the race for me. I've included him in multiples running onto Oh Crick & Shoreacres in the last race of the festival, am hoping to have a few quid split between these two by the time it comes around, courtesy of running up multiples.
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Amazed to see Shoreacres as short as 6/1 tomorrow, currently best priced 8/1. I've got a couple of e/w doubles from Hurricane Fly & Sizing Europe going onto either him or Oh Crick, don't think I'll be going back in at 8's, but might be tempted to find something earlier in the day to go with him..
 
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