Road To the Grand National 2012

I agree with Zenyatta re Giles Cross. Having been on the bridle 150 yards from the line, he was behind one stride after the line. Empties very quickly. Think 3m4f is the limit of his stamina.
 
simmo said:
I was rather amused to find that I backed Giles Cross at 44 last week. I do apper to have backed most of the field though.
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Left it late this year. Giles Cross is the only one I've backed so far. (I've a long-list of 12 and a short-list of a handful, two or three of which I'll back before Saturday.
 
Simon said:
Just been looking at this race. I've narrowed it down to three. Cappa Bleu, Treacle and Killyglen. All fit the right type of horse to do well, have nice weights, go on good ground, are rated about right, look to have had a decent prep, have run between 3 and 6 times this season and all ran last time in February or March. They all trade around 20-25/1 at present.
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This is what I worked out a while back, still like all three and will be backing them.
 
Killyglen is calling me a bit as well on this ground. I remember him running well for a long way in Denman's second Hennessy. Giles Cross may have been as nailed on as Earth Summit was in his rain soaked year if the heavens had stayed open. Downer.
 
I think I'm going to add State Of Play to my 'squad'. He's been placed in the last three and goes very well fresh. Age isn't on his side, but he's not got many miles on the clock, and he doesn't fit the profile of a winner, but there's no reason he won't place again. 50/1 is massive seeing as he was one of the market leaders the past few years.
 
Simon said:
I think I'm going to add State Of Play to my 'squad'. He's been placed in the last three and goes very well fresh. Age isn't on his side, but he's not got many miles on the clock, and he doesn't fit the profile of a winner, but there's no reason he won't place again. 50/1 is massive seeing as he was one of the market leaders the past few years.
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40/1 for this one with VC going 6 places is a good bet for me. If only half the field complete I'd expect him to be one of them and finish in the top 3rd of the finishers too.
 
Here's where I am with it.

Those carrying around 11st have recently done well in the race, but usually they struggle. However, the weights do not seem as compressed this time, which will make it relatively more difficult for those carrying above 11st and will favour those further down the handicap. I’m ignoring the bottom five (who are out of the handicap proper and consequently set to carry more than their actual handicap mark) and believe that the chances of the top 10 in the handicap are longer than available odds, so I’m ignoring those too. As much as I admire the top weight Synchronised, he has to concede 23lb to the likes of Giles Cross, which is surely too big an ask (although he did give 18lb and a beating to that one in last season’s Welsh National). I’ve discarded the majority of those remaining for a variety of reasons, leaving me with a shortlist of 12. I believe the winner will come from this list.

In race card order:

Chicago Grey
Seabass
Shakalakaboomboom
West End Rocker
On His own
Cappa Bleu
Organisedconfusion
Treacle
Sunnyhillboy
Killyglen
Becauseicouldntsee
Giles Cross

I’ve cut these in half again and am left with:

Shakalakaboomboom
On His Own
Cappa Bleu
Treacle
Sunnyhillboy
Giles Cross

As always, concentrate on a small group of about three or four. Giles Cross looks to have a lot going for him and is well positioned in the weights off 10st 1lb. Odds of 20/1 are available about Shakalakaboomboom at the time of writing, which seems like value. I also expect Cappa Bleu to put in a big run. Gold Cup winner Synchronised is a formidable stayer with a touch of class, but at single-digit odds I would have to oppose him at the weights.

Prediction:
(I’ve include Synchronised as fourth choice, but as the likely favourite he’s bad value at single-digit odds and I won’t be backing him on that basis). The others are all worth considering at available odds.

1) Giles Cross
2) Shakalakaboomboom
3) Cappa Bleu
4) Synchronised
5) Treacle
 
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Euronymous said:
Ground not a concern with Giles Cross Steve?
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Obviously the more rain the better for him, but I’m not obsessed with the going this year as with a shower or two it should be fair enough for most of them. Although I’ve offered an order it will be more about the handful of them as a group for betting purposes – i.e. I’m not too fussed about which one of the handful beats the other, as long as one of them wins, with perhaps another one or two placed. VC offering six places btw.
 
SteveM said:
In race card order:


Organisedconfusion
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Has SteveM discounted the wrong one?

I'm on the Arthur Moore trained OrganisedConfusion, in what is a confused race in a confused world at 25/1.

My other one is Swing Bill E/W.

Good luck everyone.
 
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Any of the stats peopel want to have a go at this 'fun bet' Hills are doing, 33/1 if you get all right

1 Will there be 17 or more finishers Yes/No
2 Will the age of the winning horse be 10 years or older Yes/No
3 Will the official winning distance be 5 lengths or less Yes/No
4 Will 2 or more horses fail to successfully jump the first fence Yes/No
5 Will the winning horse carry 11 stone or more Yes/No
6 Will the SP of the winner be 16/1 or greater Yes/No

I'll go
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
 
I don't like fun bets

Kenny-Dalglish-looks-deje-007.jpg
 
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