Road To the Grand National 2012

Im surprissed by all the confidence for Giles Cross.

He does'nt find much off the bridle.
Its a long way from the last around the elbow and up the straight.

I can see him running a good race and emptying from a few out when the pessure is applied.
 
dvds2000 said:
Any of the stats peopel want to have a go at this 'fun bet' Hills are doing, 33/1 if you get all right

1 Will there be 17 or more finishers Yes/No
2 Will the age of the winning horse be 10 years or older Yes/No
3 Will the official winning distance be 5 lengths or less Yes/No
4 Will 2 or more horses fail to successfully jump the first fence Yes/No
5 Will the winning horse carry 11 stone or more Yes/No
6 Will the SP of the winner be 16/1 or greater Yes/No

I'll go
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
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No doubt someone will put me right, but that looks like 33/1 about a 63/1 chance. I suspect if you shop around you could get better than 33/1 for getting two or three of them right.
 
I always find it hard to narrow down choices in this but managed to get it down to 5 this year:

Cappa Bleu
Neptune Collonges
Chicago Grey
Becauseicouldntsee
State of Play

I'd love to see State of Play win as he always does so well round the national fences and at his age I'd imagine this might be his last chance.
 
Wins: Sunnyhillboy

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Cover bet: the midnight club

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Run for your money:

Always Right
Planet of Soucnd
Tatenen
Seabass
Shakalakaboomboom
 
A lot of similarity here but my three in number order are:

Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
Becauseicouldntsee

I think Sunnyhillboy will win it if he jumps round. Looks on a very good weight and I hear the Kim Muir was just a 'prep'. Could be even better in than he officially is. :ninja:

Cappa Bleu looks solid and Becauseicouldntsee looks the ideal type provided his jumping doesn't let him down. He's usually decent so think he'll be OK.

Best of luck to everyone.
 
A few people have mentioned State Of Play just noticed that bet 365 have him at 14/1 just to be placed in the 1st 5.
 
Ruby's mount On His Own has only been mentioned once on this thread, by Steve M, who finished by dropping him from his shortlist anyway. I wonder why?

He was bought by the Wylies at Brightwells for 240k after winning a point by 20L and a Leopardstown Christmas bumper. He became an average horse while with HoJo, as did many another, and was rated only 116 when leaving there to join Willie Mullins.

He was gambled on his Mullins debut in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown but was brought down 4 out, having shown nothing. Connections must have been disappointed, because he was allowed go off at 10/1 next time out in the Thyestes at Gowran. This time, however, he lived up to his name by finishing out clear of the field. Nothing got near him and one of the big handicaps of the year in Ireland became a procession.

He was on 125 that day and tomorrow his mark is 148 (10-11), which is quite a jump. He is by Presenting, the sire of last year's winner, and his dam is by Roselier, the sire of Bindaree. This suggests to me he has a chance of getting the trip and his potential is as yet unknown.
 
Grey said:
Ruby's mount On His Own has only been mentioned once on this thread, by Steve M, who finished by dropping him from his shortlist anyway. I wonder why?
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Like I say, I believe the winner will come from this list.

In race card order:

Chicago Grey
Seabass
Shakalakaboomboom
West End Rocker
On His own
Cappa Bleu
Organisedconfusion
Treacle
Sunnyhillboy
Killyglen
Becauseicouldntsee
Giles Cross

I've had a little bit on On His Own although he didn't make my final four (same applies to Organisedconfusion, mentioned earlier), pretty much for the reasons you mention. However I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a really big race.
 
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I have backed Synchronised. I am very confident. The last horse I can remember in a similar position going into the race was Master Oats who ran very creditibly despite going around the hare rail for four and a half miles.

Synchronised is not as good as Master Oats, but he is considerably better handicapped (giving 1lb to Ballabrigs!!), the course is now better suited to standard racehorse form comparison and I expect McCoy not to give away fifty yards on the way round. If he's within 20 lengths of the lead when the fences get shorter, he wins.
 
Against OHO would be his relative inexperience, that he probably wants it more testing and that Walsh “hopes” he can go left handed. On the plus side, as Grey has outlined, he should be open to more improvement than most lining up here.
 
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Melendez said:
I have backed Synchronised. I am very confident. The last horse I can remember in a similar position going into the race was Master Oats who ran very creditibly despite going around the hare rail for four and a half miles.

Synchronised is not as good as Master Oats, but he is considerably better handicapped (giving 1lb to Ballabrigs!!), the course is now better suited to standard racehorse form comparison and I expect McCoy not to give away fifty yards on the way round. If he's within 20 lengths of the lead when the fences get shorter, he wins.
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I see he's out to 12/1 this morning. At that price he becomes just about worth backing. I doubt he'll start favourite now and expect a late surge of support for the likes of Shakalakaboomboom and Cappa Bleu.
 
SteveM said:
I see he's out to 12/1 this morning. At that price he becomes just about worth backing.
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Just a bit. I expected 7s and 8s.

Can't get better than 10s right now, but he;s bound to be bigger IR. I'll be asking for 16s.
 
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Think he'll be around 6's myself, with 3 or 4 others inside single figures.
William Hills BOG must be the deal of the century.:lol:
 
BigRob said:
A few people have mentioned State Of Play just noticed that bet 365 have him at 14/1 just to be placed in the 1st 5.
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William Hill have him at 4-1 to finish in the first 10, which I consider to be tremendous value for a horse placed in the last three renewals.

He's not getting any younger and is an unlikely winner but should jump around safely and plug on through beaten horses in the last half mile.
 
Synchronised at 12/1
State of Play (e/w 1st 6)
Organisedconfusion 25/1 (e/w 1st 5)
West End Rocker 14/1
 
Relkeel said:
William Hill have him at 4-1 to finish in the first 10, which I consider to be tremendous value for a horse placed in the last three renewals.

He's not getting any younger and is an unlikely winner but should jump around safely and plug on through beaten horses in the last half mile.
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Good bet.
 
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