Road to the RYANAIR CHASE

handsofstone

handsofstone

At the Start
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Messages
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I cannot find the previous road to the ryanair chase thread, so I apologise if I am making a new one when there is no need.

I am really wanting to back CUE CARD in this race, I see you can still get 100/30. I feel over this distance he is way ahead of the others in the market and given his performance last year where he took apart the well touted up on here FIRST LIEUTENANT, was one of the best and easiest victories at the festival last year.

This year he has been even more stunning, I was shocked in the King George by the way he was dismantling this top class field nearly all the way round only to tire over which surely looks like a distance which is just beyond him. He stands virtually no hope in the Gold Cup as the stayers will always outlast him, the problem is the Tizzards are not afraid of a challenge and they have ultimate belief in the horse and I do not think they are people you can change there minds very easily. They have every right to try and win the Gold Cup as they are unlikely to ever have a better horse.

It will be interesting to try and guess what they will decide. I feel now SPRINTER SACRE is back we can rule out the Champion Chase. The safe option is to take the easy race and easy prize money and the horse will be remembered like previous multiple champ ALBERTAS RUN (a horse who never got that much publicity or praise he deserved) they may think not many people remember the Ryanair winner and so they go for glory and make which in my mind is a silly decision and finish maybe fifth in the gold Cup at best.

The problem I have is I know the 100/30 is only on offer because of the triple entries. For me this horse should be 6/4 for the Ryanair and I am not joking. I cannot see any horse getting close over his optimum distance.

AL FEROF is entitled to improve as he kept jumping left handed in the King George and so he maybe a little underrated but his jumping is abysmal at times as he shown against FRENCH OPERA where he was under no pressure and made some hashes, not to mention his shocker in the Arkle against SPRINTER SACRE

as of the others BENEFFICIENT keeps surpising everyone and his win in the Jewson last year was a powerful display, but he looks like he will have to improve much further to trouble the CUE CARD:)
 
handsofstone said:
AL FEROF is entitled to improve as he kept jumping left handed in the King George and so he maybe a little underrated but his jumping is abysmal at times as he shown against FRENCH OPERA where he was under no pressure and made some hashes, not to mention his shocker in the Arkle against SPRINTER SACRE
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL39_vj1t7I

He was foot perfect in the Paddy Power and whilst his jumping wasn't great in the Amlin it was his season's appearance and I would say a lot better than Cue Card's round at Exeter.

I'm on at 20s NRFB and I believe his participation in the Ryanair is slightly more likely than Cue Card's given PN not being daft enough to put both his best two chasers in against Bob's Worth.

Cue Card was touching 6.2 on the machine a couple of days ago. Worth a go if only as cover.
 
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10/1 is tricky given the Gold Cup alternative. And with SDC out of the picture I feel Mouse will have his way and he'll run on the Friday this time around.

Soft ground would cloud the issue however, but in that scenario I don't see him besting Al Ferof.
 
Euronymous said:
10/1 is tricky given the Gold Cup alternative. And with SDC out of the picture I feel Mouse will have his way and he'll run on the Friday this time around.

Soft ground would cloud the issue however, but in that scenario I don't see him besting Al Ferof.
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19.5 on the machine looked worth chancing although I'll admit I didn't know SDC was out.

That pours cold water over it.
 
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As others have pointed out the loss of SDC will give Mouse the go ahead for FL to run in the Gold Cup, something he was screaming for last year. He is the only horse Bob needs to worry about. I also think Cue Card will go for the Gold Cup as they dont want another Ryanair. Leaves the Ryanair wide open and i wouldnt touch it for ante post at the moment.
 
Digger said:
As others have pointed out the loss of SDC will give Mouse the go ahead for FL to run in the Gold Cup, something he was screaming for last year. He is the only horse Bob needs to worry about. I also think Cue Card will go for the Gold Cup as they dont want another Ryanair. Leaves the Ryanair wide open and i wouldnt touch it for ante post at the moment.
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You've just ruled out over 20% of the betting over round and you don't think you should have a bet! Madness.
 
Yeah, I would have thought the bet would be ripe for a race, given that FL and CC are likely to swerve.

By the way, hezz, the existence of Unioniste surely makes it more likely that AF goes for the Ryanair. In the event that Hales / Nicholls thinks that Unioniste is a force in March, he will run in the Gold Cup. Al Ferof must be long odds on to run in the Ryanair.
 
SlimChance said:
You've just ruled out over 20% of the betting over round and you don't think you should have a bet! Madness.
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i cant bet if i dont know if they are going to run. Im not clear on any of the runners at the moment. Champion Court maybe? Al Ferof may also go the GC...
 
Bar the Bull said:
Yeah, I would have thought the bet would be ripe for a race, given that FL and CC are likely to swerve.

By the way, hezz, the existence of Unioniste surely makes it more likely that AF goes for the Ryanair. In the event that Hales / Nicholls thinks that Unioniste is a force in March, he will run in the Gold Cup. Al Ferof must be long odds on to run in the Ryanair.
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Nicholls column on Betfair would suggest otherwise - Unioniste only likely to run in the GC if it comes up very soft or Al Ferof fails to stay in the Denman chase.
 
I think the more the Tizzards think about it the more they will convince themselves that the Gold Cup this year is where they should go. The going will have the last bearing and ultimately say which one of the two races that they do go for, GC or RA. Prize money, stamina, opposition and ground conditions are the decisive factors. I have put the factors in this particular order for good reason. Firstly prize money in the gold cup represents an each way bet if you like, first prize in the GC is twice that of the RA and the runner up picks up just £30,000 short of what the RA winner gets, and third place takes home about the same as the bride in the RA. The GC field could cut up into one of the smallest we have seen for years, what with some in decline and now having tasty handicap marks and others for fear of spoiling a good one because they havent had the right conditions to take advantage of it, there is also the absences through injury. The ground wont have a bearing on the stamina issue because it will choose the race but lets assume the going is on the fast side of good. On ground as fast as that, Cue Card will have the whole field going at it long before he drains himself, and will also have two opportunities on downhill stretches to fill his lungs up. Now he visibly stopped at Kempton but still had the rest well beaten off and not having let up for a second. I dont buy into this Kempton being an easy track, make no mistake about it the pace they go there means stamina is certainly a prerequisite. So if they believe that the prize money fits in with taking a chance on the stamina doubt, then all it leaves them with, is the opposition, who can we beat and how on a track that suits. I really do think they will go Gold.
 
Great to see you on here Maxbet (ex-Neigher myself), I think the Ryanair is the right race personally but I agree they will more than likely give the Gold Cup a try and you could not blame connections, there are only a handful that could win it in my opinion and there a few good judges that think he will get the trip, but if anything was to happen to Sprinter Sacre the Tizzards may have a re-re-think.
 
Maxbet said:
I think the more the Tizzards think about it the more they will convince themselves that the Gold Cup this year is where they should go. The going will have the last bearing and ultimately say which one of the two races that they do go for, GC or RA. Prize money, stamina, opposition and ground conditions are the decisive factors. I have put the factors in this particular order for good reason. Firstly prize money in the gold cup represents an each way bet if you like, first prize in the GC is twice that of the RA and the runner up picks up just £30,000 short of what the RA winner gets, and third place takes home about the same as the bride in the RA. The GC field could cut up into one of the smallest we have seen for years, what with some in decline and now having tasty handicap marks and others for fear of spoiling a good one because they havent had the right conditions to take advantage of it, there is also the absences through injury. The ground wont have a bearing on the stamina issue because it will choose the race but lets assume the going is on the fast side of good. On ground as fast as that, Cue Card will have the whole field going at it long before he drains himself, and will also have two opportunities on downhill stretches to fill his lungs up. Now he visibly stopped at Kempton but still had the rest well beaten off and not having let up for a second. I dont buy into this Kempton being an easy track, make no mistake about it the pace they go there means stamina is certainly a prerequisite. So if they believe that the prize money fits in with taking a chance on the stamina doubt, then all it leaves them with, is the opposition, who can we beat and how on a track that suits. I really do think they will go Gold.
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Great post
 
Good thread but lets keep going. What runs and what doesn't and lets price the race with the very likely runners.

.
 
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I would start of with first seven in the betting Slim, Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card, First Lieutenant, Al Ferof, Rubi Ball & Lord Windermere but there will be more lining up, money for Rocky Creek but really?
 
Mullins has said he doesn't know where Marito will go but I'd consider this race to be made for him. He would have went close in the Jewson last year but for coming down two out and has been in good form this season, following up in his second to Hurricane Fly with a smooth success over Roi Du Mee last time. Most bookies have yet to price him up but he's 20/1 with a couple which is good enough to tempt me in.
 
thehorsesmouth said:
Mullins has said he doesn't know where Marito will go but I'd consider this race to be made for him. He would have went close in the Jewson last year but for coming down two out and has been in good form this season, following up in his second to Hurricane Fly with a smooth success over Roi Du Mee last time. Most bookies have yet to price him up but he's 20/1 with a couple which is good enough to tempt me in.
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What's his rating? What's the name of the handicap that used to be the Jewson over two and a half miles for second season chasers?
 
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