Road to the RYANAIR CHASE

Good post Maxbet

He KGV at kempton is certainly not easy. He track lends itself to setting a fast pace and many a KGV has ended up with he field well strung out

Very true that it could be a small field on the day too
 
Fair points re Kempton, but if the horse making the pace is the one that patently doesn't get home, there's little excuse.

CC won't get the Gold Cup trip in a horse-box. He should run in the Ryanair Chase, though I suspect they mivht be tempted to drop back to 2m and hope that Sacre isn't 100%.
 
The gc could be run in an entirely different way though grass. Wont go over the betfair chase argument again but I believe he's such a supremely talented horse that there is scope to run him off the pace a bit too. Small field and a crawl?
 
Only problem with that theory is the horse wants to be bounced-out in front, and was an abject disappointment when held-up in the 2012 KG. I acknowledge that the Cheltenham race may be run in a particular/different way, but it's almost always a searching stamina-test however it's run, and - much as I love the horse - I'd be place-laying him with confidence were he to run in the GC.
 
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clivex said:
The gc could be run in an entirely different way though grass. Wont go over the betfair chase argument again but I believe he's such a supremely talented horse that there is scope to run him off the pace a bit too. Small field and a crawl?
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Just think of that hill. I can't see him getting up it as effectively as Bobsworth after two circuits, no matter what the pace.
 
Benefficient for me.

Reasons for Benefficient running in the Ryanair as opposed to the Queen Mother or the Gold Cup.

Gold Cup: there are some question marks over his stamina for 3m. Ok, he won a PtP over 3m, and was 2nd round Newbury over 3m to Harry Topper in a novice chase, but staying 3m+ at championship pace is a completely different matter. He’s no chance of outstaying Bobs Worth up the hill. Whilst the race may cut up, I just don’t think Tony Martin is the kind of guy who wants to finish 2nd or 3rd for more prize money. They want to win.

Queen Mother: Impressive as he was in the Dial A Bet Chase, he could only hope of finishing 2nd to Sprinter Sacre. Again, I believe Tony Martin wants to win, not place.

For me, Benefficient is better over further & this trip is right up his street. The Jewson form of last year is good too. Let’s take a look at those around him in the market.
Cue Card, strong indication will go for the Gold Cup.
Al Ferof, more than likely to go for the Gold Cup.
First Lieutenant, if Mouse Morris gets his own way will go for Gold Cup.
Dynaste, poor run in King George. If he does turn up in this, a lot to prove & Benefficient has the beating of him on Jewson form anyway. Same applies to Module, Captain Conan.

Whilst it makes sense to keep him in the Gold Cup & Queen Mother incase anything happens to the favourites, at this stage the Ryanair looks the logical option. Tony Martin was quoted after the Dial-A-Bet Chase “We’ll think about races like the Ryanair, or maybe even the Queen Mother, if the ground was soft.”

He is currently available at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, if Cue Card & First Lieutenant go for the Gold Cup then Benefficient will shorten to 5-1. For me, Cue Card has nothing to gain from running in the Ryanair again, they have a point to prove & the honest thing to do is have a shot at the Gold Cup to truly see if he stays. With the injury of Sir Des Champs, you would have to think Gigginstown would still want to be represented in the race & warrant a shot at the race based on Mouse Morris enthusiasm alone. Add into the likelihood of Al Ferof going for the Gold Cup & Beneficcient would be 3-1 favourite.

Benefficient in the Ryanair screams value to me at 10-1.
 
The top of the talking horses book is:
(Betfair lay prices in brackets - an important indicator)

Al Ferof 7/1 (8/1)
Benefficient 10/1 (10/1)
Marito 20/1 (20/1)

Keep going.


.
 
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Euronymous said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL39_vj1t7I

He was foot perfect in the Paddy Power and whilst his jumping wasn't great in the Amlin it was his season's appearance and I would say a lot better than Cue Card's round at Exeter.

I'm on at 20s NRFB and I believe his participation in the Ryanair is slightly more likely than Cue Card's given PN not being daft enough to put both his best two chasers in against Bob's Worth.

Cue Card was touching 6.2 on the machine a couple of days ago. Worth a go if only as cover.
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I must admit I watched CUE CARD's race at exeter and he was all over the place with his jumping, the horse never looked that happy and maybe 2 mile is just to short for him nowadays and given it was first run of the season and the race only worth 35k I can forgive him that run.

It was interesting last year they avoided the big clash against SPRINTER SACRE at cheltenham and took the easier race. I hope they come to their senses again and take the horse to the logical option. I see it as putting FRANKEL over 1 mile 4 or 6 furlongs, it makes no sense and does the horses credibility no good when they put in a bad performance.

AL FEROF has the class to win it and like you say his participation is more likely and he may prove value, but I just see a repeat of last year with CUE CARD dominating from the front and staying out of trouble. I have decided I wont back him in a single at this stage as I would be fairly happy to take around 2/1 on the day, for now I will just double and treble it with BOBS WORTH and SPRINTER SACRE.
 
Cue Card 3/1 Probably won’t run
Al Ferof 7/1 Worthy favourite
First Lieutenant Gold Cup surely
Benefficient 10/1 Already discussed
Dynaste 10/1 Woof woof
Riverside Theatre 14/1 likely to run, which is a big help
Somersby 12/1 No idea if this beast will run
Arvika Ligeonniere 16/1 Too many doubts about his participation
Captain Conan 14/1 Out for season
Module 16/1 Likely to run
Hidden Cyclone 14/1 Behave
Sizing Europe 20/1 Too old
Captain Chris 16/1 Unlikely to run
Champion Court 20/1 Interesting
Marito 20/1 Already discussed
Lyreen Legend 20/1 No idea what this chap will do
For Non Stop 25/1 America now?
Baily Green 25/1 Likely to go QMCC
 
handsofstone said:
I must admit I watched CUE CARD's race at exeter and he was all over the place with his jumping, the horse never looked that happy and maybe 2 mile is just to short for him nowadays and given it was first run of the season and the race only worth 35k I can forgive him that run.

It was interesting last year they avoided the big clash against SPRINTER SACRE at cheltenham and took the easier race. I hope they come to their senses again and take the horse to the logical option. I see it as putting FRANKEL over 1 mile 4 or 6 furlongs, it makes no sense and does the horses credibility no good when they put in a bad performance.

AL FEROF has the class to win it and like you say his participation is more likely and he may prove value, but I just see a repeat of last year with CUE CARD dominating from the front and staying out of trouble. I have decided I wont back him in a single at this stage as I would be fairly happy to take around 2/1 on the day, for now I will just double and treble it with BOBS WORTH and SPRINTER SACRE.
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Why would you double anything with Sprinter Sacre right now? Price up where Cue Card runs and the Gold Cup is long odds on.
 
SlimChance said:
Why would you double anything with Sprinter Sacre right now? Price up where Cue Card runs and the Gold Cup is long odds on.
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The reason for including SPRINTER SACRE is purely value based, I think he is 10/11 with sky bet and given that if he is back to his best and has a prep run and bolts up he is going to be 1/4 probably as his competition is very poor. I am happy to take the chance simply because it makes sense. I would rather take the risk at 10/11 than spinning for red or black.


One I forgot to mention which may be a bit overlooked is RIVERSIDE THEATRE I know he is now 10 but his record of 5 out of 7 in good ground is impressive. He was staying on well last year from a very unpromising position, that was on good to soft but if it is good ground he may prove good value at the 16/1 on offer now.
 
handsofstone said:
The reason for including SPRINTER SACRE is purely value based, I think he is 10/11 with sky bet and given that if he is back to his best and has a prep run and bolts up he is going to be 1/4 probably as his competition is very poor. I am happy to take the chance simply because it makes sense. I would rather take the risk at 10/11 than spinning for red or black.


One I forgot to mention which may be a bit overlooked is RIVERSIDE THEATRE I know he is now 10 but his record of 5 out of 7 in good ground is impressive. He was staying on well last year from a very unpromising position, that was on good to soft but if it is good ground he may prove good value at the 16/1 on offer now.
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The problem is that the 10/11 price has been plucked from the air. We have no idea if the horse is right or not. I don't think less than a coin flip is a bet. Powers and Hills are laying 4/7 NRNB so you're taking 1/5 that he runs on the day.
 
SlimChance said:
The problem is that the 10/11 price has been plucked from the air. We have no idea if the horse is right or not. I don't think less than a coin flip is a bet. Powers and Hills are laying 4/7 NRNB so you're taking 1/5 that he runs on the day.
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Yes I see what you mean but the tests have come back completely clear, connections are going for a normal routine for the next couple of weeks, If there were any abnormalities whatsoever then I would not be taking 10/11. I will stand by it being value that if he is only 70% fit on the day he will still win.

As for the 4/7 NRNB I have not got the funds to be backing a single on it at that price, I do not think you can include it in accumulated bets or otherwise for me that bet would stand good value.

Also if 8 or more runners turn up, there could be some good each way value to be had at some of the double figure priced horses that can run into a place, especially if SPRINTER does not turn up, they will be turning up in droves.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Cue Card 3/1 Probably won’t run
Al Ferof 7/1 Worthy favourite
First Lieutenant Gold Cup surely
Benefficient 10/1 Already discussed
Dynaste 10/1 Woof woof
Riverside Theatre 14/1 likely to run, which is a big help
Somersby 12/1 No idea if this beast will run
Arvika Ligeonniere 16/1 Too many doubts about his participation
Captain Conan 14/1 Out for season
Module 16/1 Likely to run
Hidden Cyclone 14/1 Behave
Sizing Europe 20/1 Too old
Captain Chris 16/1 Unlikely to run
Champion Court 20/1 Interesting
Marito 20/1 Already discussed
Lyreen Legend 20/1 No idea what this chap will do
For Non Stop 25/1 America now?
Baily Green 25/1 Likely to go QMCC
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Somersby 12/1 No idea if this beast will run

Doesn't stay anyway? Couldn't have him for the race at any price. Travelled beautifully a few years ago and packed it in.
 
SlimChance said:
The each way ship has sailed!
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I am not so sure about that, BAILEY GREEN could be EW value at 20/1 given his impressive run at cheltenham last year. It looks a very poor race I am quite sure SIRE DE GRUGY should be bigger odds his clear stamina up the hill should put anyone off backing him.

For SPRINTER SACRE also you are basically getting the 10/11 for him just being healthy, because the race itself is a formality. If you think that there is a 80% chance the horse is healthy it is a great bet:whistle:
 
handsofstone said:
I am not so sure about that, BAILEY GREEN could be EW value at 20/1 given his impressive run at cheltenham last year. It looks a very poor race I am quite sure SIRE DE GRUGY should be bigger odds his clear stamina up the hill should put anyone off backing him.

For SPRINTER SACRE also you are basically getting the 10/11 for him just being healthy, because the race itself is a formality. If you think that there is a 80% chance the horse is healthy it is a great bet:whistle:
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If you look at the QM thread you'll see I suggested BG at 40/1. I had him in loads of e/w multiples at 33/1 but Unfortunantly the other legs are dead.
 
I'm on champion court for this, trainer says he's defo going for the race and loves winners at Cheltenham (however daft that sounds) was brought down in the king george and I think is good enough. Il be interested in the Mullins horse as if he comes he'll go close. But riverside theatre is a stonking price if he's settled down abit... Baz will be riding with 1m to go and drive clear up the hill ??
 
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