Rotten EW Thread

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trefflich

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Hi all,

Think this might be a nice little thread for EW shrewdies. Please post your EW selections where the market suggests the selection is a strong/nigh on good thing to be placed. The thread doesn't need to be a mine of winners however it should ensure that the place part is almost a sure return. Obviously punting these consistently on your online a/c will put it in jeopardy however cash betting would be encouraged!

First selection as below:

2.45 Newmarket Tomily 100/30 Lads
 
trefflich said:
Hi all,

Think this might be a nice little thread for EW shrewdies. Please post your EW selections where the market suggests the selection is a strong/nigh on good thing to be placed. The thread doesn't need to be a mine of winners however it should ensure that the place part is almost a sure return. Obviously punting these consistently on your online a/c will put it in jeopardy however cash betting would be encouraged!

First selection as below:

2.45 Newmarket Tomily 100/30 Lads
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You're looking at bad E/W all wrong. Don't assume the 2nd fav is automatically the best bet.
 
Right now both of these are value at ADVISED prices.

40/1 Proctor (Newmarket 5.05)
28/1 Calling Out (Neemsrket 4.30)
 
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It's easy enough to stop up a spreadsheet which tells you if the place market is overbroke. That's a good start in working out what's bad each way.
 
It's easier again just to subscribe to each way sniper. It's a one off payment.
 
Rule of thumb I use is in the place on Betfair is .2 less than the place portion of the bookies then it's a bet. All suggestions and spots gratefully accepted.
 
trefflich said:
Rule of thumb I use is in the place on Betfair is .2 less than the place portion of the bookies then it's a bet. All suggestions and spots gratefully accepted.
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Why don't you just look at the each way market on Betfair? It can be a more accurate guide as to whether something is a bet or not and will help you avoid betting e/w in races where you're giving your bookmaker the best of it.
 
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Ricko said:
Does that actually work? I assume it is a system, what's the theory behind it? I've never found a system that is profitable in 20 years.
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It's not a system. It's an arb checker. If you want to win punting you don't try to back more winners you try to have better bets. Each way sniper will help you find more of those bets but it's only one of many tools available to you as a punter.
 
Become a punter and a bookie. Put all your bets in a biscuit tin...pay yourself for every winner you have leave losing bets in the tin......open the tin up in 20 years buy a big boat go on a world cruise
 
Tanlic said:
Become a punter and a bookie. Put all your bets in a biscuit tin...pay yourself for every winner you have leave losing bets in the tin......open the tin up in 20 years buy a big boat go on a world cruise
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My Uncle did something similar-he was a non drinker as well.Bought a pub that was a big success-put his brother in law in charge of the boozer -was completely ripped off and died prematurely young from stress.
 
The way some of these threads go I often wonder about you lads. There is no winning system. You just keep evolving finding bits of edges where you can and at the end of the year they all add up to something meaningful. You can't be lazy, you do have to be tuned in and do a bit of work but that's the price of winning.
 
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SlimChance said:
The way some of these threads go I often wonder about you lads. There is no winning system. You just keep evolving finding bits of edges where you can and at the end of the year they all add up to something meaningful. You can't be lazy, you do have to be tuned in and do a bit of work but that's the price of winning.
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I'm not sure you need to worry yourself about anyone Slim. We've all been punting for a long time and I think we have a fair idea of what works and what doesn't. My question was actually just a curiosity about whether anyone, over all the years has ever found any sort of "system" they use which makes any sort of profit long-term...however small. Personally, i've never come across one...but it must be possible.
 
I have a "system" of sorts which I have used at the Cheltenham festival (only appears to work at the festival) with great success ever since the year after War Of Attrition won the GC and I got fucked off with getting utterly fucked every year.

85% profit this season - the worst year was break even. More than doubled my cash last year.

Essentially it is an extended form of ditching, mostly using trends to reduce the field to a manageable number.
 
That reminds me, the "Little System For The Festival" has shown a profit every year since I first highlighted it ( it's not my system btw) although it needed a 28-1 winner in the very last race this year to turn disaster into a profit.
 
Ricko said:
I'm not sure you need to worry yourself about anyone Slim. We've all been punting for a long time and I think we have a fair idea of what works and what doesn't. My question was actually just a curiosity about whether anyone, over all the years has ever found any sort of "system" they use which makes any sort of profit long-term...however small. Personally, i've never come across one...but it must be possible.
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All systems that work are eventually corrected by the market.
 
LUKE said:
Uncle Harry's system being a notable exception-have €50 on the first fav of the day -if that loses double up on the next fav until you back a winner.
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10 losing favourites and your next bet is 50 grand. I'll pass 😉
 
Ricko said:
10 losing favourites and your next bet is 50 grand. I'll pass 
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tested this on yesterdays racing, starting again at £50 after every winner. longest losing streak of 6, bet required after that was £3200.

Over the whole day, you'd have been £6,812 up.
 
simmo said:
tested this on yesterdays racing, starting again at £50 after every winner. longest losing streak of 6, bet required after that was £3200.

Over the whole day, you'd have been £6,812 up.
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I would hazard a guess that 10 losing favourites in a row happens more often than you imagine. You'd need balls of steel. Plus you would never get the bets on. If you did manage to and if got to 11 or 12 and you then couldn't get the next one on, your life would be over.
 
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