Royal Ascot 2016

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gus

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A big week ahead. Very significant news on the ground:

THE going at Ascot has eased significantly ahead of next week's Royal meeting after the track was hit by half a month's rainfall in an hour on Friday evening.
A thunderstorm saw 20mm of rain fall, prompting the going on the straight course to ease to good to soft, while it is good to soft, soft in places on the round course.
Speaking on Saturday morning, clerk of the course Chris Stickels said: "We had a thunderstorm yesterday evening and 20mm of rain fell in about an hour between 6.30pm and 7.30pm.
"The average rainfall for the month at this time of year would be approximately 40mm."
Despite the deluge, Stickels is pleased with how the course is looking and has not ruled out the possibility of a slight improvement in conditions before the meeting starts on Tuesday, though that is dependent on the course missing showers which are forecast for the area.
"The track has taken the rain well and is in excellent condition," Stickels added. "Showers can be hit and miss so there is some chance of improvement."
 
As might have been expected, Meccas Angel is strong in her market, Time Test and Galileo Gold weak in theirs.
 
The market to play in now is the Eclipse. I have double figure prices about both Time Test and TGG for that race.
 
Jet Setting is an obvious mover in the Coronation Stakes market if the ground stays soft all week.

It looks like Acapulco will go for the King's Stand rather than the Commonwealth Cup which at least keeps alive my double of her for that race and Quiet Reflection for the CC.
 
Air Force Blue must be showing something at home for them to persist with him but the commonwealth Cup looks a desperate move especially with the weather forecast.
 
Euronymous said:
Isn't she like 4 stone worse off at the weights though now.
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I know what you mean but I think it's quite hard to gauge just how much of an advantage (if any) the wfa scale gave her last year. Her physical appearance was striking - even to someone like me who struggles with assessing how horses look - and there's no way of knowing where she is now in relation to her rivals on Tuesday but I think it's at least feasible that she didn't have as much of an edge as some seem to think. If it's the case that she was neither favoured nor disadvantaged then her form last season really stands up (both at Ascot and at York). She's work to do, of course, to turn things round with Mecca's Angel but Easton Angel has boosted the Queen Mary form to some tune recently and Acapulco broke the clock there. The ground this week might be a big issue, though.
 
After walking the course on Sunday afternoon, clerk of the course Chris Stickels said: "We had 4mm of rain yesterday and 3mm more this morning. I haven't changed the ground but it isn't far off soft all over. We're forecast sunshine and showers every day now, so there's not much room for improvement if that's right.
"The ground is good to soft on the straight course and soft in places on the round course and it wouldn't take a lot more rain to make it soft on both courses."
 
Belardo looks a real bet in a fairly average Queen Anne, The ground will be right up his street and with the pacemaker and likely Kodi Bear too giving him something to aim at.
 
LUKE said:
Will Meccas Angel be overbet and a possible place lay.
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She could well be overbet for the win as I see no reason that profitable shouldn't continue his superiority over her but I would never have her down as a place lay in these ideal conditions.
 
I'd imagine it will be easy enough to lay her at 4/6 or shorter in the place market-that's a fair reward in a 21 runner 5 furlong sprint.
 
fonz said:
...as I see no reason that profitable shouldn't continue his superiority over her
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One thing I've learned over the years is that you cannot judge a Group 1 horse based on a race below that level. The Temple Stakes was her debut run of the season and based on last year's form she is a better horse than Profitable.
 
Profitable's probably a 10lb better horse this year, though he wouldn't want too much cut in the ground.
Fillies and mares have a poor record in the race, anyway.
 
reet hard said:
Fillies and mares have a poor record in the race, anyway.
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That wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

The Nunthorpe form demonstrates clearly that both Mecca's Angel and Acapulco are up to beating their male counterparts.

I'm worried about the ground for Acapulco, however.
 
One for the £1 ew punters like myself; Perfect Madge in Albany Stakes Friday.
By Acclamation ex Rock Of Gibraltar mare though a maiden is listed placed, the ground holds absolutely no fear on pedigree and is as high as 33/1.
Chances are it will drift to 66/1 now I have tipped her !
 
Yeah, I followed gus in on Meccas Angel and have a super sexy possie on Ervedya but after that it's a no go for me also. Laid back by TGG bet.
 
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