Royal Ascot - Day 3

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trackside528

At the Start
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What is Fencing Master doing in the Hampton Court? Didn't expect to see him here but given that he was my idea of the Eclipse winner a month ago I've had to take 6/1. Might lay him off for a place as I could see him bombing out entirely.
 
Going infor from Ascot: Source BHA website

ASCOT - Flat (Updated:17/06/2010 at 08:48)
Going - Good to Firm, Good in places
(GoingStick: Standside: 9.9, Centre 9.8, Farside 10.0, Round
Course: 9.2 on Thursday at 08:00)

Stalls - Straight Course: Centre
Weather - Watered overnight: 6mm Straight, 4mm Round course. Mainly dry
week ahead.

Other - For Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday the round course inside rail
will be positioned 3m out from the inside line, from approx 1M
1F to the home straight.

Times suggest yesterday's ground was more like firm than good to firm though.
 
trackside528 said:
What is Fencing Master doing in the Hampton Court? Didn't expect to see him here but given that he was my idea of the Eclipse winner a month ago I've had to take 6/1. Might lay him off for a place as I could see him bombing out entirely.
Click to expand...

If you take the view that the 2000 Guineas was a bit all over the place and horses will progress/regress from that starting point, it is his race in Ireland that would worry me - doesn't look a winner of any pattern race based on that. If there was an excuse for it, then fair enough, otherwise I couldn't back him with stolen money.
 
I can't believe I will back another one of theirs after seeing Cavalryman yesterday, but I can't get away from Hibaayeb in the Ribblesdale.

Godolphin have a good recent record in this race, and the horse comes into the race a Group 1 winner and the highest rated, running 2 lengths third to an impressive Diane winner in the Prix St Alary last time out. Her Guineas run can be written off for 2 reasons - she was never going to be a miler, and the ground wouldn't have suited (first time since debut she had run with the word soft in it). Today she gets to step up to 1m4 for the first time which should bring about improvement, and the fact track records are being broken (& the ground could get even quicker) should suit Hibaayeb being a daughter of Singspiel. There is the added bonus of having the best jockey at Ascot on board.

Stable form aside, and that is only for certain horses (they still won the Hunt Cup, had good thirds in the Windsor Forest and Coventry), I don't see any negatives at all, and she is an absolutely cracking bet at nigh on 6/1.
 
Hamm said:
If you take the view that the 2000 Guineas was a bit all over the place and horses will progress/regress from that starting point, it is his race in Ireland that would worry me - doesn't look a winner of any pattern race based on that. If there was an excuse for it, then fair enough, otherwise I couldn't back him with stolen money.
Click to expand...

Fair points all. I thought he was a certainty to improve from the Guineas, especially over 10f but the fact that he ran so poorly in Ireland and is now out relatively quickly in a Listed race suggests I might have been wrong. Not sure he's the sort to relish Ascot either.
 
davidjohnson said:
Going infor from Ascot: Source BHA website

ASCOT - Flat (Updated:17/06/2010 at 08:48)
Going - Good to Firm, Good in places
(GoingStick: Standside: 9.9, Centre 9.8, Farside 10.0, Round
Course: 9.2 on Thursday at 08:00)

Stalls - Straight Course: Centre
Weather - Watered overnight: 6mm Straight, 4mm Round course. Mainly dry
week ahead.

Other - For Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday the round course inside rail
will be positioned 3m out from the inside line, from approx 1M
1F to the home straight.

Times suggest yesterday's ground was more like firm than good to firm though.
Click to expand...
Punters need to know if the watering was selective / even etc. This COC could render today's racing a farce.
 
The market for the Britannia strikes me as a bit weird.

Most of the top ten or so in the betting are drawn in the middle. Assuming the COC hasn't made a cock-up of the watering they have no chance.
 
trackside528 said:
Fair points all. I thought he was a certainty to improve from the Guineas, especially over 10f but the fact that he ran so poorly in Ireland and is now out relatively quickly in a Listed race suggests I might have been wrong. Not sure he's the sort to relish Ascot either.
Click to expand...

I should have added I thought he would go well in Ireland!

It would be good if he came back to some form - the Dewhurst is looking a stinker right now (I don't think Dick Turpin ran to anything like he can so am exlcuding him).
 
Not sure how Fair Trade is twice the price of Fencing Master though given the form of Ballydoyle, the fact that Fencing Master has disappointed in Ireland since the English 2000 and that Fair Trade is likely to improve given this is only his fourth run.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Not sure how Fair Trade is twice the price of Fencing Master though given the form of Ballydoyle, the fact that Fencing Master has disappointed in Ireland since the English 2000 and that Fair Trade is likely to improve given this is only his fourth run.
Click to expand...

The form of Ballydoyle? Way too over played....they had another winner at Fairyhouse last night after a double last Sunday. Because some of the three year olds are not up to it people are assuming there is something wrong with the horses. Take out his last run and Fencing Master would be a short priced favourite for this. Cannot see him out of the first three, assuming he has not lost a leg or something.
 
Principal Role is more undeserving of favouritism is the Ribblesdale than Manifest is in the Gold Cup. The form of her win at Newbury was given a right kicking by Pollenator yesterday. The other filly that looks a bit short is Middle Club. Surely if she was any good Hannon wouldn't have been running her in Italy? Hibaayeb looks a bet simply by process of elimination - especially as I think our Oaks was below average. If only she was trained by a different outfit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The market for the Britannia strikes me as a bit weird.

Most of the top ten or so in the betting are drawn in the middle. Assuming the COC hasn't made a cock-up of the watering they have no chance.
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Stupid comment on my part. I misread the columns at oddschecker! Most of the first third of the market have highish draws.
 
Irish Stamp said:
That's a very big assumption Dessie and there appears to be plenty of early pace on amongst the low numbers.
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They were saying that before the Hunt Cup yesterday. The idea of pace horses being important only kicks in when there isn't genuinely much difference across the track. we know from previous Ascot meetings that there can be huge differences in the state of the going across the straight.
 
Looks a tough card again....have come around to thinking that Ask at 4/1 is still very good value so have him backed.

Awe Inspiring to me did not handle the track at all at Epsom and at 20/1 there are worse each bets. She was far from knocked about in the straight.
 
Anyway...

Head above the parapet again:

2.30 No bet
3.05 No bet
3.50 Ask
4.25 (From) Hypnotised, Sea Lord, Excellent Guest and, from the low draws, Cumulus Nimbus
5.00 Fencing Master
5.35 Bay Willow (with plenty of respect for a number of others!) might just be a good thing.
 
My head firmly below parapet today - it just doesn't work when I post up my ummings! So back to the more successful cloak & dagger stuff and some marvellous aftertiming!
 
trackside528 said:
What is Fencing Master doing in the Hampton Court? Didn't expect to see him here but given that he was my idea of the Eclipse winner a month ago I've had to take 6/1. Might lay him off for a place as I could see him bombing out entirely.
Click to expand...

Is there a suggestion that Fencing Master blew himself out by trying to sit close to a very stong pace? Probably didn't have the pace for a mile but those up the front ran below form: Xtension and the Beckett horse for example. The race seemed to favour those who sat off the pace and leaving aside Canford who was obviously the best horse in the race, it may have flattered the likes of Free Judgement (well beaten yesterday) and Viscount Nelson (surely needs more than a mile). Perhaps even Steinbeck too who didn't appear to come on for the run. Just a thought for Fencing Master backers. I've never been a fan of his. I know he's meant to be lazy at home etc etc, but 5-1 first time out, at Dundalk.
 
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I think Middle Club is a solid bet. Prize money looks the main factor for her going abroad and her form suggests she doesn't have much to find with most of these. Given that nothing in the field has yet hit the standard to win a typical Ribblesdale, I want to be with one who looks likely to improve for the trip, Middle Club is one of few I think you can be certain about being better at a mile and a half than shorter.
 
Desert Orchid said:
They were saying that before the Hunt Cup yesterday. The idea of pace horses being important only kicks in when there isn't genuinely much difference across the track. we know from previous Ascot meetings that there can be huge differences in the state of the going across the straight.
Click to expand...

Fair enough in most cases but if you have 1 pace horse high and 4 or 5 drawn low however fast the ground is you're likely to be having to make up 6-7 lengths purely from a pace point of view. That of course works on the assumption that they won't all merge into one group eventually (or more likely straight away) like they did in the Royal Hunt Cup.

The likes of Dandy Boy would have finished much closer if Supaseus had been able to go the pace for further than 2 furlongs - the former I think ran an extraordinary race in the circumstances given he was making his own pace from about 5f from home and amongst the others in his group eventually filled the last 4 or 5 positions.
 
Hibaayeb looks to have the best form to me but I wasn't sure she was crying out for a mile and a half. Granted she's by Singspiel but recent generations of her dams pedigree have produced mainly milers.
 
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