Royal Ascot- Day 5

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Final day of a meeting I have really enjoyed and it looks a cracking card.

Macarthur vs Spanish Moon? Tough call, I like Macarthur alot, but Spanish Moon is a typical Stoute horse so there could be loads more to come.

Honolulu wants a trip but I am not sure he wants it as far as the finale tomorrow plus the ground (unless it rains alot) is not going to suit. Well worth taking on I would of though.

The big handicap looks an absolute lottery, if I had to go for one it would be Kings Apostle, maybe.
 
Spanish Moon 9/4 with Lads, generally 3/1, Corals 7/2. Hmm.

Honolulu looks a typical doggy Montjeu that won't relish fast ground rather than in need of a trip imo and I agree he's worth taking on. I like Metaphoric. His handicap runs at Yarmouth and York last year have worked out tremendously well, and he's been crying out for 2m, lets just hope he stays the extra 6f too.

Camps Bay also represents the same formlines as Metaphoric and his reappearance run has worked out nicely with Ajaan and Silver Suitor both franking it. Double figures for the Duke of Edinburgh underestimate his chance.
 
Stuffed Regime over 9f on the watered gallop the other day and a good pal of mine who is mates with the highest respected connection there told him its the only horse he fancied all week and if it got beat he would **** ** ********
 
Diabolical - has beaten the fastest horse in the world (BTB, no relation to Bar)within the past 12 months and has plenty of pace, will sit in behind the leaders and no way should this horse be a 40-1 or 33-1, only doubt is the trainer form as they have a habit of messing horses up at Godolphin, has turf form too if you go back a couple of years so definite each way value.
 
I can't work out Bentong who runs in the 4:25. He reminds me of Clive Brittain's horse Bahiano, you think he's due a win and then he flatters to decieve. He broke the track record at Salisbury and looked to have a bright future. Generally speaking he goes well fresh and needs a break between races to run to his best, which he gets tomorrow off a 50 day break. He ran in the race last year and although leading one group of horses he didn't particulary run well by the looks of it. The one thing that nags me is, why would Paul Cole enter him in the Wokingham off a mark of 103 unless he could be competative? Either he is making the handicapper look like a stingy b*stard for such a high rating or a big race is in him. It doesn't look like the strongest of renewals (how many times have I said that during the week) and I can't see where the other young improving horses are. He's got the right type of jockey in Quinn on board who has a 50% strike rate on him albeit in just 2 runs. My gut feeling is the bookies are being very generous offering 50/1. i'll be interested to see what Paul Cole is quoted as saying tomorrow (if they even put a quote in) and i'll have a couple of quid e/w on him; He's one of the only horses in the race rated 100 or above i'd bother with.
 
The Chesham doesn't normally seem to throw up too many future superstars and tends to go to well forward types who have achieved a degree of early maturity but who subsequently come back to their peers as the competition starts to fill out and mature. 7 furlongs for a June 2yo in group company is normally a fair ask for a horse so young, so can one that was foaled on May 13th be physically strong enough to win this race?

Maze = 29 March
Champlain = 21 Jan
Championship Point = 3 Feb
Whazzit = 2 Feb
Pearl of Love = 1 Feb
Helm Bank = 13 March
Seba = 7 Feb
Celtic Silence = 14 Feb
Bach = 15 March

Tomorrows fav for the Chesham;

Free Agent = 13 May?

That's a good 6 weeks younger than the youngest of the most recent winners. At one level it's a bit of a shame as the horse is otherwise a perfect fit in terms of prep races before the Chesham, and where they finished.

Maze = 1 run, 1 win
Champlain = 1 run, 3rd
Championship Point = 1 run, 1 win
Whazzit = 1 run, 1 win
Pearl of Love = 2 runs, won LTO
Helm Bank = 1 run, 1 win
Seba = 1 run, 1 win
Celtic Silence = 1 run, 1 win
Bach = 1 run, 1 win

8 out of 9 only had the one introductory race before going on to win the Chesham, 7 of them won it. None of them won it on debut. 8 out of 9 won last time out. On these stats alone, Free Agent is the only qualifier, and yet I'm niggled by this business about the horse being so young, I mean it's not as if its close to being within an acceptable band. None of the winners were foaled in April, and this one being foaled in May must be at a disadvantage in terms of trying to get 7F's in June at group class speed?

Will someone who understands horses tell me it makes no difference? or is there something to this insight?
 
Very good post.
I also think his form is misleading some people because they think the grey horse who finished second to him was well beaten, when that was not the case. He also seems to me like a some cut in the ground horse.
 
Is MAD RUSH [5.00] the Lay of the day?

Cumani"s horses look to have gone off the boil this week,with 2 short ones turned over yesterday and hot shots Bankable and Monte Alto running below par at the royal meeting
 
Ascot
FIRM (Good to firm in places; watered; GS: Overall 10.5, Straight 11.7, Round 9.5) (Temporary rail moved to provide fresh ground Fri/Sat) (Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain and drizzle at times though the day; humid; moderate southerly winds)
Stalls: Straight course - Centre; Round course – Inside

2.30 – A decent listed affair here but it should just concern SEAWAY who is John Gosden’s best 2yo. The Dr Fong colt needed the run on debut when 2nd to the Albany stakes 3rd and he then built on that when closing in late on the Coventry 4th in a 6f Haydock maiden. He has shown considerable improvement of late and in a 6f gallop last weekend he had 3 promising juveniles well behind him. He handles any ground and now running over his ideal trip he is expected to deliver.

3.45 – Aeroplane & Sakhee’s Secret are expected to go well for in form yards but my Irish contacts tell me that US RANGER is their strongest bet of the week and that they are bullish he will collect. He has been flying at home and was luckless at York when drawn on the wrong side of the course. He wont mind rain but wont want too much. He has been flying at home and I’m told he is a strong bet today.

4.25 – Lipocco has been aimed at this all season and he performed well on his return at Windsor. This better surface will suit and he is reported as having solid each way claims by connections.

5.00 – A strong bet in this race for me and Luca Cumani has targeted MAD RUSH at this all season. He has been flying at home of late and works with the better horses in the yard. He quickened away from Lion Sands and Wing Express in impressive style the other day and he is one horse that the yard know is very well handicapped. He blew up on debut when given a too confident ride and my contacts at the yard think he nailed on today.

5.35 – Michael Bell is proving a good man to follow this season and confidence is very high behind the classy METAPHORIC who will relish his new trip today. He impressed in a recent gallop striding away from Regime and he has improved with a winter over hurdles. He goes well fresh and the trainer feels this is as close to a good thing as you find.

Each Way Lucky 31 for me.

Good luck
 
Originally posted by PlaceBacker@Jun 21 2008, 07:34 AM
Is MAD RUSH [5.00] the Lay of the day?

Cumani"s horses look to have gone off the boil this week,with 2 short ones turned over yesterday and hot shots Bankable and Monte Alto running below par at the royal meeting
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Monte Alto was never fancied by the yard.

The draw beat Bankable.

Kidlat hated the fast ground and was green.

Schopenhauer despite his price, was not fancied strongly and wants soft ground and shouldn't be judged on a tactical 4 runner race.

You offering 3/1 on Mad Rush, if so I'll have some. :D
 
If the going remains on the fast side both Sakhee's Secret and Astronomer Royal are overpriced for the Golden Jubilee on Betfair.
 
I like the look of Happy Boy in the Hardwicke. The Golden Jubjub looks pretty tight but Equiano gave Marchand D'Or a huge boost the other day. Looks to me like the French horse has imprved an awful lot over the winter.

I think Nota Bene is good thing in the Wokingham.

The Duke Of Edinburgh looks typically trappy and if Luberon gets in he could just about make all off bottom weight. Other than that, I reckon Coeur De Lionne is well handicapped but possibly vulnerable to the typical big improvers from the usual yards.
 
Re Metaphoric, surely there must be more stamina doubts about him than about the likes of Honolulu?

(I won't be betting in the race.)
 
I think Nota Bene is good thing in the Wokingham.
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Ha - I saw him in there yesterday when I was browsing the card and almost wrote up a big post about his bizarre career, and then decided I was crazy. If they've got him back (bleeding is his big problem apparantly) then he must have a chance.
 
Somewhat subdued this week with only 3 winners and one lay (bankable) but 2 of the winners were yesterday so maybe luck is turning.

As said above, the Jubilee is tough so small stakes on Marchand D'or (Equiano form) though I have a fear that US Ranger may at last deliver after carrying my money far too many times.

A poor renewal of the Wokingham where I've gone for Tombi and Edge Closer. The former ran very well at York LTO and both horses are the progressive sorts that tend to do well in this. I'll add Nota Bene to the fc's abnd tc's after DO's comments.

.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 20 2008, 04:51 PM

Macarthur vs Spanish Moon? Tough call, I like Macarthur alot, but Spanish Moon is a typical Stoute horse so there could be loads more to come.
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Thought MacArthur ran a stromer at Epsom Gal


Spanish Moon is respected, but i'll take proven horse over what could be a good horse
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 21 2008, 11:53 AM
Ground would worry me about Macarthur.
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Why??

If i remember correctly. It was fast when he was beaten by Mores Well and Archipenko


he's improve since then hasn't he???
 
Because this is proper firm ground; and he's unproven on it.

I'd rather go with the old stager Maarahel at 5 times the price.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 21 2008, 12:11 PM
Because this is proper firm ground; and he's unproven on it.

I'd rather go with the old stager Maarahel at 5 times the price.
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OK Gareth


I'm not quite happy with my Ascot standards yet as data is limited, so ground could be quicker, but FWIW, I got it just outside Good to Firm band i'm currently using yesterday, there's been a bit of rain and no change reported by Stickels
 
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