Royal Ascot - Day 5

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davidjohnson

At the Start
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Jun 29, 2007
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The day that Sir Michael Stoute confirms his strangehold on the King George as Harbinger shows himself the only credible threat to Workforce? I'm not one for getting involved at short odds often, but I think Harbinger should be 4/6.

Shamali laid out for the Duke of Edinburgh. I'm convinced Haggas has had this horse short of fitness in 2 runs this year to get him here without ruining his mark. He should be clear second fav.
 
Aussie Denman is due to go for the July Cup Gal - not sure if a prep was planned beforehand or not but the only viable option now is the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate weekend.
 
Thanks IS.

Just looking at the races now proper - Redwood is surely better than he showed at Chester where (in my opinion) he bounced off the wall and hated the track. Harbinger will win (and surely be an odds on shot) but Redwood would not be 20/1 if he came straight here after Sandown.
 
davidjohnson said:
Shamali laid out for the Duke of Edinburgh. I'm convinced Haggas has had this horse short of fitness in 2 runs this year to get him here without ruining his mark. He should be clear second fav.
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Would you have any stamina concerns, David? With Australia Day and Just Lille both committed front runners (as well as a plethora of Johnston horses), a burn up looks on the cards.
 
I'm very very sweet on South Easter. He ran a cracker in the Coronation, he bangs his head on the stalls, attempts to run up with the pace, drops right away and then stays back on into 6th. The form of the Debussy Chester race is strong too and I think he's the type to still improve. 25/1 is absolute madness. I'd probably save on Jukebox Jury who also ran ok in the Coronation and has won on the round course here as a 2yo.

In the Chesham, I'm not too sure how Straight Line is 40/1 either given his fourth to Strong Suit looks very decent form.
 
It looks like pricewise has jumped on the Haggas bandwagon with High Standing-might need to try and hit 2 Powers offices in rapid succession tomorrow morning.
 
Prefer his stable companion myself who has dolne little wrong in his career.

Admittedly he has a bit to find at the ratings but his form is pretty solid and I think there's more to come.

25's looks a bit of value.
 
Galileo said:
Redwood is surely better than he showed at Chester
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Redwood put up an amazing time rating first time up last season before bouncing in the Dante and not getting back on the track. He almost certainly bounced at Chester as his time rating before that was smart again. He should run his race today.

I like today's card and the Wokingham looks an absolute cracker of a race.
 
I think that the Godolphin horse in the Golden Jubillee is overpriced - Fravashi, he was a fast finishing second in the Al Quoz Sprint over in Dubai (a Group 1 in all but name) to Joy And Fun beating one of the fastest horses in the world on turf in California Flag amongst others. He'd been running over 1m prior to that in group company and the drop back to 6f appeared to suit him, he's done all his winning at 7f (two Grou p2's and a Group 3) and handled the faster ground last time out whereas his previous wins had all been with cut in the ground. 40/1 looks massive to me whilst his conqueror in Dubai Joy And Fun has little to find with the frequently well-backed Happy Zero on running at Sha Tin in November prior to a slightly unlucky in running third to Sacred Kingdom (won 2 Group 1's - Centenary Sprint Cup and Chairman's Sprint Prize at Sha Tin already in 2010) whilst the runner-up has good form that ties in with the US raider Kinsale King, 25/1 Joy And Fun looks overpriced also.

Martin
 
I'm not convinced tat Redwood wasn't flattered at Sandown. They went hard and he picked up the pieces as they died in front.
 
davidjohnson said:
I'm not convinced tat Redwood wasn't flattered at Sandown. They went hard and he picked up the pieces as they died in front.
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But he'd probably have needed it too.

I do my figures without looking at the betting and when I'd finished I really thought Redwood would be in the front three in the market. 16/1 is massive value. He only needs to find a length or two to trouble Harbinger.
 
As for the other races...

2.30 No bet (so far)
3.05 Redwood (ew as the value against the fav)
3.50 Fleeting Spirit
4.25 (From) High draws: Genki, Barney McGrew, Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go,
Lows: Golden Desert, Masamah, Medicean Man, Laddies Poker Two, Sohraab
5.00 Shamali was my good thing for today but I see it's a non-runner so Siberian tiger for an ew interest at nice odds.
5.35 Bergo looks bred to need 5 miles so he's my bet.
 
I'm on two for the Wokingham. I've got Ingleby Lady as the second part of a decent equally divided ante post double with Riggins (so near!) but would have preferred a far side draw. Ran well over 5f in warmup for this and she had already shown she retains her ability from last year in her first of the season.
Kaldoun Kingdom has a similar profile to Ingleby Lady even down to a 5f warmup. Slight concern over the firm ground which is why this one is my second choice.
Elsewhere Averoo 2.45 Newmarket did me a huge favour last week under what was either an inspired ride by Fallon or a lucky escape for an overconfident jockey. If today's rider is a little less dramatic then this one should win despite its highest ever mark since its initial handicap allotment
 
Only bet today is Genki on the Wokingham. It's no guarantee he'll run to the same level he did in the Stewards Cup but If he does a 7lb higher mark should see him go close.
 
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