Royal Ascot

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,082
Location
Leyland
It isn't Cheltenham but the meeting is two weeks away so needs a thread.

Tues:
I'm nicely involved in Rhododendron at 12s for this (thought they'd use the Lockinge as a pipe opener when I placed the bet, didn't see her going Ganay first) and will likely cover with Recoletos if he goes here. It's not a strong race.

King's Stand looks between the front two, would favour the filly at this track.

SJP picture is murky at best and I wonder if Saxon Warrior will be pitched in on a retrieval mission. I hope not as the front of the market looks weak and Wootton is a big price at 16s. Had a horrible trip in the Poulains and is forgiven that run.

Wed:
Wouldn't oppose Cracksman in the POW but there should be some each way juice somewhere, not that I can see it yet.

I like Aljazzi in the Duke of Cambridge. She ran really well first time out where the front two got first run on her. Can't see her out of the frame.

Thur:
Konchek is worth a bet at 7s in the Norfolk. Ran a very good race from a bad draw in the National Stakes. Top trainer.

Fri:
I have the Commonwealth easily between Sioux Nation and Invincible Army. Backed both and also have them in multiples and doubles.

Sat:
Crystal Ocean looks rock solid at 9/4 for the Hardwice. Another who will be an anchor in doubles.

Dreamfield looked a group horse when winning at the track in May and 8/1 is fair. Form was boosted on Saturday.

I think there's a chance Harry Angel will be backable for the Jubilee if AOB has a good meeting and the hype machine goes into overdrive with Merchant Navy. The Tin Man is overpriced at 12s.

At this stage:
Nap - Sioux Nation
EW - Wootton
Lay - Without Parole
 
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Euronymous said:
SJP picture is murky at best and I wonder if Saxon Warrior will be pitched in on a retrieval mission. I hope not as the front of the market looks weak and Wootton is a big price at 16s. Had a horrible trip in the Poulains and is forgiven that run.
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Don't see SW as a runner at this trip. Michael Tabor said - even after winning the Guineas - a mile is not his ideal trip. They were talking Triple Crown prior to that race, too.
Second-guessing Coolmore is a fraught occupation at the best of times, but I'll stick my neck out, and have 2 goes in 1 post.
The only sane reason I can muster for RM riding US Navy Flag as he did in the Irish Guineas was their eyes were on a bigger prize in the future, and they wanted to test his stamina for Ascot's round mile in the SJP.
If I'm wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, If I'm right, you won't get near the current 6/1 on the day.
GL with Wootton
 
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Fastest time (in seconds) at each distance at each course since 1/1/04 per Raceform Interactive.

ASCOT Flat 1m 2f 122.52
ASCOT Flat 1m 4f 144.60
ASCOT Flat 1m 6f 181.05
ASCOT Flat 2m 204.13
ASCOT Flat 2m 45y 209.14
ASCOT Flat 2m 4f 256.92
ASCOT Flat 2m 5f 159y 287.79
ASCOT Flat 2m 6f 34y 297.41
ASCOT Flat 5f 57.44
ASCOT Flat 6f 71.50
ASCOT Flat 6f 110y 81.15
ASCOT Flat 7f 84.28
ASCOT Rnd 1m 98.32
ASCOT Rnd 6f 73.55
ASCOT Rnd 6f 110y 80.21
ASCOT Rnd 7f 87.15
ASCOT Str 1m 97.16
 
I'm not a huge flat follower, but was at Ascot last month when Shades of Blue made her debut. To my eye she was hugely impressive and the form's been franked with both the 2nd and 3rd winning subsequently. I'd be interested in any views on the times, but have already backed her for the Queen Mary at 8/1
 
In the category of ‘he would, wouldn’t he’, my only bet so far has been on Alpha Centauri for the Coronation.
After a fine performance last time at the Curragh she has every chance given her ground. Narrowly beaten last year in the Albany, perhaps a little green, she is currently joint favourite at around 4/1. I reinvested some of my Curragh returns ( see Long Shot thread) when betting opened and will begin a no-rain dance at the start of the meeting.
Last year I backed her and Brother Bear at the meeting and both were unsuccessful. I will wait for BB to be declared for the Commonwealth Cup before making a decision. If JH decides he’s worth the entry then at around 12/1 he could be worth taking a risk on.
 
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I took 7/1 Romanised EW NRNB for the SJP this morning. It's 8/1 in a couple of places but without the concession.

Also 40/1 Accidental Agent EW NRNB for the Queen Anne.

Following Paul Kealy in, to be honest, but we think along similar lines for big races and by the time I'd ended up studying the races I'd probably end up on the same ones but missing out on the prices.
 
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Romanised I see as the main danger to Wootton, have put him in a yank with Aljazzi, Invincible Army and Crystal Ocean.

Covered my nice Rhododendron possie with Recoletos

Have a nice bet going onto Lady Aurelia in the KS (double with D'Bai from last Saturday) and so have put Battaash in doubles with Crystal Ocean and Konchek.
 
I'm just getting started on Ascot. One of the first things I've noticed is that the Wolferton is not a handicap this year.

Anyone got any idea of the history behind the decision? Has another race been made into a handicap?
 
Not this year, apparently, DG.

[FONT=&quot]Weights [/FONT][FONT=&quot]colts & geldings 9st 3lb; fillies 8st 12lb[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Penalties [/FONT][FONT=&quot]after August 31st, 2017, a winner of a Listed race 3lb; of a Group 3 race 5lb[/FONT]
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I fear for us punters at this meeting.

We have good, fast ground but rain is forecast.

And the fvcking d1ckhead of a CoC is watering!!!!!
 
I've just checked a couple of sites.

The forecast seems to be saying light rain today then dry until after racing on Saturday. That should be good news.

We'll see what the CoC does but I expect over-watering to begin on Tuesday after racing.
 
A cynical view, DO? Ascot is usually circumspect with the hosepipe and - given the forecast - I'd say the ground will be the fast side of good, for the whole meeting.
Amazed to see US Navy Flag (7/1) longer than Romanised for the SJP; plenty of punters must have RM down as a poor judge of pace.
We'll see.
 
I haven't backed Spark Plug since he hacked up in The Cambridgeshire. Always knew he was a talented horse, even from when he fell over at this meeting a few years ago. 16/1 freely available for The Wolverton. I have to have a go.
 
reet hard said:
A cynical view, DO?
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Based on past form, I'd say, reet. Instead of watering to maintain he seems to water to produce 'good' ground and ends up overdoing it or gets caught out by showers that were actually forecast.

If I end up with a minus going allowance for all five days I'll come back on here and apologise.
 
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The bias towards good ground at these meetings is a huge disadvantage when you have a horse that performs on good/firm going.

When the muppets decided to dig up the original turf on the straight and replace it, the going has never been equal across the course.

Unfortunately you need to watch the first race at most meetings to have any idea of the going. Recently I walked a course described on the BHA website as good to firm and it was good to soft at best.
 
For what it's worth my selections are Rhododendron -class act-could be rated the best filly in Europe at the end of the year.Purser in the Jersey at 14/1 -really like the form of last years Solario.Magnetic North in the Britannia -will be a massive price -hit the line hard in his last race -worth looking at the race on ATR app.
 
There are more potential plot jobs in The Brittania than an Agathe Christie novel. Desert Wind looks one of them.
 
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Racehorsematch said:
The bias towards good ground at these meetings is a huge disadvantage when you have a horse that performs on good/firm going.

When the muppets decided to dig up the original turf on the straight and replace it, the going has never been equal across the course.

Unfortunately you need to watch the first race at most meetings to have any idea of the going. Recently I walked a course described on the BHA website as good to firm and it was good to soft at best.
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Going stick readings (Sunday, 8.00 am):

GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; GoingStick: Stands' 7.7, Centre 7.7, Far 7.7, Round 7.0) (Watering) (Partly cloudy)

With the readings only slightly above dead centre of the scale, and identical right across the straight course the '' muppets" don't seem to be doing too badly at the moment.:D
 
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Think Equilateral is the next Battaash

Best bet of the meeting for me in the Commonwealth Cup, currently 9-2 [NRNB & BOG] with Bet 365
 
reet hard said:
Going stick readings (Sunday, 8.00 am):

GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; GoingStick: Stands' 7.7, Centre 7.7, Far 7.7, Round 7.0) (Watering) (Partly cloudy)
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I would be happy with that - no excuses for anything.

Of course, it was further watered and it rained a little after those readings were taken but I'll take rain over watering any day. Going stick readings are a help but they aren't always accurate but in the absence of more accurate measuring technology they'll have to do.
 
reet hard said:
Going stick readings (Sunday, 8.00 am):

GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; GoingStick: Stands' 7.7, Centre 7.7, Far 7.7, Round 7.0) (Watering) (Partly cloudy)

With the readings only slightly above dead centre of the scale, and identical right across the straight course the '' muppets" don't seem to be doing too badly at the moment.:D
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Years of walking courses to find the going reports are less than accurate and some a complete joke means I don't believe what is published. It depends on who is using the going stick as to what readings are given. Check the difference between Sunday and Monday

This mornings official BHA going report:
Good to Firm, Good in places.
(GoingStick: Standside: 8.3, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 8.2. Round:7.4 on Monday at 08:15)
 
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here is the official going report published on the BHA site. Completely different to reet hard's post.

Going/Track:


Good to Firm, Good in places.
(GoingStick: Standside: 8.3, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 8.2. Round:
7.4 on Monday at 08:15)




Stalls:


Straight Course: Centre
Round Course: Inside




Rail Movements:


The running rail on the round course is positioned 3yds out
from approx 9f out to the Home Straight. This rail will
remain in place until Thursday. Consequant changes in race
distances for Tuesday and Wednesday are:
Old Mile Start - an increase of 5yds.
1m 2f, 1m 6f and 2m 4f Starts- an increase of 11yds.

(NOTE should be "consequent")




Weather:


Light shower overnight and yesterday measuring less than 0.5mm
A generally dry, warm and breezy week is forecast.




Watering:


Watered Sunday morning to maintain current Going for
Tuesday. No further watering is planned before racing Tuesday.
Given the current forecast it is likely that watering after
racing will take place through the week to replace moisture
lost through evapotranspiration.
 
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