Rsa Chase

I backed Hobbs Hill at a big price last night, in the hope that Egerton lets him take his chance here, rather than run him in the Ryan Air. There is a doubt about his stamina (never been over further than 2m5f over fences), but this race looks a much easier option than the RyanAir, and I think there's a reasonable chance that he will get the trip.
 
I distinctly recall Egerton telling punters a while back that Hobbs Hill was "extremely unlikey" to go to Cheltenham at all. Unless he has changed his mind that would make backing him without the NRNB proviso very ill advised.
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 21 2008, 11:05 AM
I distinctly recall Egerton telling punters a while back that Hobbs Hill was "extremely unlikey" to go to Cheltenham at all. Unless he has changed his mind that would make backing him without the NRNB proviso very ill advised.
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Unless of course you were getting such big odds that the gamble was worth the risk.
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 21 2008, 10:05 AM
I distinctly recall Egerton telling punters a while back that Hobbs Hill was "extremely unlikey" to go to Cheltenham at all. Unless he has changed his mind that would make backing him without the NRNB proviso very ill advised.
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Last time I checked, useful, BF weren't doing NRNB, but this was compensated by the price available (110) - as rory has pointed out.

I'm not entirely upset about things, as I reason that if he wins the Pendil at the weekend (and I figure he has a pretty sound chance), then his price should contract anyway, and I will be able to get out in front regardless.

The downside is that he is humped in the Pendil, and is immediately reported as out of the Festival. Like I said - at odds of 110, I was prepared to take the chance.

It's a mere speculation, but thanks all the same for your attempts at providing me with some guidance.

At least I have given some advance notice of my wager this time, eh? I hope it meets with your approval.
 
25/1 with Paddy Power.

Personally if a trainer states a horse is unlikely to run then irrespective of the price I would be inclined to avoid backing him. A losing bet is a losing bet whatever way you look at it. And personally I like to know I am going to get some sort of run for my money.
 
Hobbs Hill was left in the RSA Chase at the forfeit stage yesterday, which was good enough for me to have had a small interest at 110.

If he wins the Pendil, it's not altogether unrealistic to suggest that Egerton just might allow his undefeated novice chaser to take his chance at Cheltenham.

Or are you suggesting otherwise, useful?

PS. I only do Papal betting on Paddy Power. :suspect:
 
For context, it was widely reported that Henrietta Knight was avoiding the Ryanair with Racing Demon last year. Although he was well beaten in the end, the 110 I got on Betfair was definitely value. There is never an "irrespective of price" scenario by definition. Clearly, you must make a judgement as to why a horse is quoted at a big price and only bet if you believe you have all the facts, but if the price compensates for the degree of doubt then the bet is worthwhile.
 
On his form line with Battlecry, Hobbs Hill would have hacked up in the Reynoldstown. Albertas Run is 7s on Betfair, Hobbs Hill is currently trading at 55s.

To me that tells its own story.

Until Egerton states the horse is a definite runner in the RSA I would be inclined to avoid an involvement. I note that you cant trade out yet as he is 150s to lay. Also, after his Ascot victory, Egerton expressed doubts about Hobbs Hill staying the trip of the RSA and that if he were to go to Cheltenham the Ryanair would be the option.

I think you may be seeing something that simply isn't there.
 
Rory, surely it is better to wait for the NRNB clause to come in and then you know exactly where you stand and have insurance against a non-runner?
 
You said it yourself, useful. One a line through Battlecry, Hobbs Hill would have hacked-up in the Reynoldstown. That would be one of the reasons behind have a speculative wager about the horse at odds of 110 on the same day he's been left in the RSA Chase at the forfeit stage.

You see?

As for waiting for NRNB, then you do, of course, have the comfort of insurance. But then again, every 100/1 chance quoted is a genuine 100/1 chance, and the books are generally over-round to a shocking degree.

By all means, have an ultra-cautious approach if it serves you well. Fearless, devil-may-care, tilting at windmills is best left to the fearless and devil-may-care anyway.
 
Of course Egerton may be trying to put eveyone away big time.

Isn't leaving him in the RSA at the forfeit stage merely a precaution against all of the main principles being withdrawn, and the race seriously cutting up? Is that a 55/1 chance or longer?

It only cost £370 to stay in at this stage so hardly breaking the bank is it?
 
The fact he was left in at all at the forfeit stage, was sufficient reason for me to rationalise that connections were at least prepared to hold off on a decision/continue to take a look at the race.

I don't think Egerton's comments are attempting to put anyone away. And I don't think leaving him in is merely a precaution against the race cutting-up. I think it's much more about them keeping their options open.

Is it a 109/1 chance that Hobbs Hill will run in the race?

Is it 109/1 chance that he won't get 3m1f, even if he does run in it?

The answer might be 'Yes' on both counts, but at those odds, I'm prepared to pay to find out.
 
Bar The Bull, I think its more of a friendly debate between two former adversaries who have a healthy respect for each other these days, ay Grass?

I am trying to get my head around backing a horse for a race which the trainer has said he wont run in, for which you lose your stake if he is withdrawn, and for which if he was running he would be a clear favourite.

Good luck to Grass if he wins, and Egerton perfoms a volte face and the price plummets allowing Grass to trade out with a profit.

However I am a bit old fashioned and dont think Bookies give anything away lightly. Surely they know Egerton has already made up his mind?

I notice Cashmans have him in neither their Ryanair nor Sun Alliance books.
 
Useful - you don't know a lot about Egerton, do you?! :laughing: He'll be constantly changing his mind, which is par for the course with him!! He'll be trying to put no-one away - quite the opposite; he stated early the horse was unlikely to go to Cheltenham so punters were aware of that before they baked him heavily for a Festival race. Edgy will have left him in the RSA to keep all options open, as Grass has said - it is a favourite ploy of his. If the horse wins the Pendil doing handsprings (which isn't an impossibility!) then he may well be tempted to go to Cheltenham, even the RSA, after all. He is not a man who likes to overface his horses by pitching them into hot company before he thinks they are ready.

I'm with Grassy that he is on a decent bet - the horse is very useful and is highly regarded. I'm not especially worried about the trip - he shapes like a horse who will stay and was second as a novice over hurdles to Geeveem over 2m6f. He also has the physique of a 3m chaser and is a lovely prospect of an animal indeed.
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 21 2008, 06:29 PM
However I am a bit old fashioned and dont think Bookies give anything away lightly.

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this is betfair, so not stricly a bookie giving it away. more than likely someones robot. also there was £50 traded at 110, so its not a massive bet. but still, not a liability i would like to have on my part on a horse trained by Egerton.
 
Grasshopper, I hope you haven't had too much on?

I have it on very reliable authority this morning that his particpation in the RSA remains "highly unlikely".

Apparently "abolutely nothing" has changed since the first announcement in the press about his likely non-participation in the race.

The Pendil, in case anyone has forgotten, is run over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs. I am led to believe the yard are loathe to test the horses ability to stay an extended 3 miles in the RSA as the horse will have an VERY hard race if he is found wanting in the stamina department.

It is to be imagined therefore that he will either go for the Ryanair, or maybe the Melling Chase or the Future Champions Novice Chases (both 2.5 miles). If he wants to test his stamina over 3 miles this season the 3 miler at Punchestown in which Aces Four fell last year is a possible option.

Alternatively we may have to wait until next season's Charlie Hall.

The regard in which Egerton holds this horse is immeasurable and he really thinks he will be a champion in years to come. He does not want to ruin any chance of this by bottoming him in the Sun Alliance. I hasten to add these are NOT my words.

Should he win the Pendil you may get lucky and someone on Betfair gives you less than 109 to trade out with. I wouldn't bank on it though!
 
The deal was made "last night". The conversation I have been privy to took place this morning approximately 2 hours ago.
 
The words used to me, and I quote, were "it remains highly unlikely Hobbs Hill will run in the RSA".

Of course the press release embargo may have shaped that, though the last thing I would do now (let alone two days ago) would be to back Hobbs Hill ante-post for the RSA.

If I am wrong I am wrong. I've got broad shoulders!
 
Hobbs Hill is now 26s to back on Betfair (good news Grasshopper) but still 100/150 for peanuts to lay - bad news Grasshopper (I am presuming you had more than 2 squid on - a man of you claibre and means???)

Still 25/1 with Paddy Power BTW, so no change with the trad layers.
 
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