Sandown Saturday

betsmate

betsmate

At the Start
Joined
Dec 7, 2004
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Once the plodders have got being embarrassingly slow out of the way, there are a couple of decent group races.

3.40 I'll start this season as I did for much of the last by opposing the Paco Boy hype. Pressing has to shoulder a penalty, but a G1 win and a G2 mile win last season is better form at this level than 18/1 suggests. Never out of the front two in his first 4 season debuts, last year's debut in a G1 perhaps a little optimistic. Worth a punt.

4.15 Soul City - looked very much the real deal until things went wrong at Royal Ascot, is expected to come on massively from season debut and has reportedly done a fantastic piece of work with Paco Boy (wonder-horse). The favourites have it prove (one a handicapper and one never the same since injury). 16/1 overnight looks large enough to get involved, even if slight concern that has a preference for softer going.
 
God, I hope FAREER doesn't turn out to be a plodder too, or we'll never hear the end of it from you Jumps boys!

Personally, I tihnk it's PACO BOY's race for sure - no Grp 1 penalty to carry ? Shoo in!

If PB & F run, of course - they are worried about the ground for both of them and today is going to be hot.

My lad is quite rightly a pretty rank outsider, so my dream is that he can maybe sneak a place and hand some more black type to the page!
 
I think Fairoak Lad is a reasonable percentage call in the Whitbread. He seems to be on a good mark and has the profile of an improver. The only negative is the jockey. I rate Tamarinbleu the danger.

I was thinking of taking out some sickness insurance on a few others that have cost me money: My Will (I suspect this will be the best of the Nicholls team), Air Force One, Kilcrea Castle, Lothian Falcon and Hello Bud. However, there are so many it would probably just cost me again!

I went into the price comparison sites expecting to get 20/1 Mous Of Men in the first televised race so I was pretty shocked to see it sitting at 4/1f. I only fancy it by process of elimination so I won't be backing it at such a short price. The only other one I couldn't find a good reason to oppose was the 4yo, which is 22/1, so I might see if I can get 5/1 place-only later on.

Twist Magic would be value if he was sure to jump off but I suppose that's why he's such a long price considering his superiority. I'm thinking of taking Chaninbar place-only but am concerned that he had two hard races in succession and has only had another week to recover. I suppose two-milers should recover faster than stayers but I don't know if a third race is wise. I just think if he gets into a jumping rhythm liek he did at Aintree he could steal it at the railway fences.

I haven't looked at the Flat races yet.
 
Intriguing pace shape to the Celebration Chase. Twist magic has been at his best this year when able to make all. With Fix The Rib, Chaninbar and Lord Jay Jay in the race, they are surely going to go pretty quick in this. It's a snide bet and you can't get much on, but backing On Crick each way has very little down side as he has the second best form and will get the race run to suit.
 
What's the betting there will be a non-runner?

I know Big Mouth put up some stats a couple of years ago in defence of the bookmakers (nothing new there, then) to illustrate that there really isn't any greater percentage of non-runners fields that would affect the number of places on offer than in any other sized race but it strikes me as being more frequent than that.
 
Even if Twist Magic jumps off, he's not going to be allowed the run of things like he did in the Tingle Creek and at Ascot. There's still a good chance for me he'll spit the dummy out during the race. I'll have a cheeky lay of him in-running when everyone has piled on thinking he's a cert now he's consented to race.
 
Not too often I'm drawn to Leicester maidens, but 11/8 about Green Moon looks a very reasonable price in the 1m2f maiden. Form of the Newbury race reads very well in the context of this race and looked to be one to progress over longer trips this year. I can't help but ask myself would you be getting odds against a horse with the same form trained by Stoute and owned by Khalid Abdullah.
 
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