Sandown: Tingle Creek Day

Sandown Tomorrow

Have we potentially overlooked a Paul Nicholls 6 timer?

1255 - Black Thunder
In touch, went close 3rd 3f out, led over 2f out, pushed clear, readily (op 7-4)

1325 - Poungach
Tracked leaders, smooth progress to go 2nd after 3 out, led soon after 2 out, cruised clear (op 7-2 tchd 11-4 and 4-1 in a place)

1355 - Al Ferof
Raced in 3rd behind clear leaders at strong pace, steady headway 4 out, went close 2nd after 3 out, led on bit approaching last, pushed along run-in, easily (op 10-11, tchd Evens and 4-5 in places)

1430 - Edgardo Sol
Held up in rear, steady headway from 3 out, quickened to lead before last, stayed on to go clear run-in, easily (op 11-2)

1505 - Kauto Stone
Tracked leaders, improved to lead before 5th, asserted before 2 out, slight mistake last, easily (op 2/1)(op 11-2)

1540 - Meanus Dandy
Tracked leading pair, led after 4 out, soon ridden 8 lengths clear, idled after 3 out, headed before last, rallied flat, held near finish (op 12-1 tchd 9-1)



Put yourself in Paul Nicholls boots, how many of these could carry their form tomorrow throughout the season with a win?

1. Kauto Stone, looks a exceptional progressive chaser
2. Edgardo Sol looks good off 132, maybe have on more handicap left in him before Cheltenham? (Lanzarote Hurdle?) but not the sort in my books to be an exhuberant winner which means he may be able to stick around a realistic mark.
3. Poungach definatly testing the water with this race, a win here I don't think would do him any favours off 138 unless he was ultra impressive - he's either going to blow his mark out of the water or be tailed off.
4. Al Ferof, looks an exceptional progressive chaser.
5. Meanus Dandy plenty of ability but it's trying to put back to back efforts with him, may be off a leinient mark especially if he turns up at his best.
6. Black Thunder, unknown and all to prove - tough race.


I think Al Ferof, Edgardo Sol, Kauto Stone and Meanus Dandy would be an ideal 4 timer for Paul Nicholls - I think Poungach and Black Thunder are the real wild cards in the pack, you just don't know what way they're about to go.
 
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Fair balls to you, Bruce - good to have an opinion.

Even if Kauto Stone is an "exceptional" chaser, you have to take race conditions into account. In my opinion, tomorrow's conditions will not provide Kauto Stone with the kind of test he will excel at, for the reasons I gave earlier.

Your use of the words "overlooked" and "6-timer" in the same sentence makes me smile - but in a good way. :)
 
Seems fair enough given that Sunley Peace has franked form of the wincanton win nicely. Had given that one 12lbs and a 16 length beating and SP has gone on to win off 119.

But these races can be pretty tough at the business end at Sandown and i can tend towards more experienced types

Not looked at race in detail though
 
Kauto Stone is a truely horrific price tomorrow. Does anyone read the fiormbook? What does the form of his last race amount to? Not much yet he is sub 3/1 to beat a Champion Chaser and one of last seasons outstanding novices. The lunatics are out of the asylum and are shouting "Ruby Ruby Ruby".
 
Reading the formbook is an ancient practice, everyone can do it which is why you'll never really get an edge with your odds.

This day an age the tools are out there for you to breakaway from the crowd and start providing information for yourself that is scarce, it will open a whole new world in which you can profit from.

When a bookmaker compiles his odds based on form that the 90% of punters are reading where is your edge logically?
 
EC1 said:
Does anyone else think Gibb River is interesting in the 2m handicap hurdle tomorrow?..looks feasibly weighted and is potentially unexposed
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See my nap of the day! Great chance, as has his stablemate.

Hendersons one in the first is interesting as well, and looking forward to seeing Knight Pass. Any Currency is huge at 5s in the last.
 
I have place-laid Kauto Stone with enthusiasm, and backed Wishfull Thinking against the jolly.

I have reluctantly backed Gibb River too.
 
Grasshopper said:
This could not be further from the truth, Bruce.
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correct..if everyone could do it we would all back the same horse and betting odds would look strange...our pick 1/100..the rest rags

its about interpretation..not reading..everyone reads the form..we all interpret differently thats all.

good job as well
 
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I think you're taking the piss place laying Kauto Stone.

First down for Nicholls POUNGACH - Just another 4!
 
I have backed Wishfull Thinking. I think 2m could be right up his street and I'm looking forward to the race.
 
Mister No is an OR in france of 64
Edgardo was a 56
that means 11 ounds better and rececives 6 pounds

Nicholls is sure to have improve the later but at the prices Mister No is a very good price, top connections not running here for nothing

value bet with a horse that likes to win
 
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